Newsletter # 16 Recap

Newsletter # 16- Sat. 4/21/12


Well, it looks like this Triple Crown Trail is winding down and I'm glad because I'm starting to suffer from horse fatigue. There are two races this weekend which probably won't have any effect on the Derby as there are only a couple that, if they should win, will still have to hope for some defections to make the field.

But just because these races may not have an effect on the Derby, don't discount all of these horses down the road. The Preakness and Belmont may see a couple in the field. Last year I was rooting all year for Uptowncharlybrown who ran into some problems but was a fast closing 3rd in the Lexington and went to the Belmont where he ran big but was DQd because of losing his weights. Some of these got off to a late start but may be coming around in time for some of the other big races.

KEE R9  Sat. 4/21/12  The Lexington

There's only a couple in here that have pedigrees that suit my taste. There are a couple that are very difficult to read and we have a few horses that like the turf which normally says they will like the poly.

I really think this is a difficult race to handicap because a case can be made for so many of them but even the best ones are very erratic.

I like the pedigree of Holiday Promise who ran a bang up race in his first try at graded company. It looked like he was going to win it but couldn't hold off Went The Day Well who looks like a nice one. He always seems to run his race and I feel like he really likes the poly.

Skyring has very nice breeding and got off to a bum start in his last in the Ill.Derby but was full of run and got checked again in the stretch. Gets a big jock change here and Lukas is due for a hit.

Morgan' Guerrilla came up as the live horse in that ILL Derby and wanted the lead but was compromised by his outside post. There's not much speed in this race and I expect 3 horses to be up front early. The one just mentioned along with Castaway and Johannesbourbon.

Castaway quit badly last time and I don't think he can handle a fast pace. When he won the Southwest they were just loping along. They may make him the chalk but, as I did last time, I'm chucking him right out.

The other speed Johana. has only had one race and blew them away at TP on the poly. He's got a sprinters pedigree so may not last the distance.

Gold Megillah ran a nice race last out against Flashy Dresser in the Rushaway and was just beaten by Gung Ho who came back to run a big race in the Bluegrass last week. Motion does real good at these tracks and it looks like JR is getting a lot of his horses to ride after Animal Kingdom last year.

News Pending ran 2nd to Union Rags in his next to last but got a bum start in the FL Derby. No closer was going to win that race anyway so that race is a toss for me. He gets KD back and Romans has his horses ready, as with Dullahan last week.

So, who to pick? As I said, a case can be made for most of them in which case I go for the long shots. I'm going to go with News pending because of his good try against Rags and he does have enough speed to get into contention. Also, horses that run good on GP turf seem to do good on poly. One drawback is the post position but maybe KD can work a trip. Oh, he did have a work Thur. at KEE.

1- News Pending

2- Holiday Promise

3- Gold Megillah

4- Skyring

Recap:

This was a strange race, aside from it being won by a 70/1 shot, with the speed horses no where to be found at the end. Castaway dueled for a bit with a sprinter but soon packed it in as he did in the Sunland. I felt he has just gotten lucky in the SW at Oaklawn by running on such a slow pace in a slow race. He had also told me something about those OP races which I will go into at another time.

I didn't understand News Pending's race. He has shown in the past that he has enough speed to get into the race but he lost touch with the field early on. He then made a long run up the backstretch to reach contention and then just stopped. All in all, a very disappointing race in which the winner happened to be in the right spot at the right time although the trainer switch to Ward must have had something to do with it. I'm just crossing this race off as one of those where the contenders didn't want to run that day and forget about it.


AQU.  R9  4/21/12  The Jerome

The weather may play a big part in this one as rain and a sloppy track is very possible. I would think it would favor speed if the track comes up sloppy, and there's
 plenty of speed in here, but it's only guessing when it comes to the weather.

Pedigrees don't really mean that much in a mile race but there are a few in here that I like their bloodlines.
Brigand, Stirred up, Dan And Sheila and Adirondack King all have nice pedigrees but as I said, I don't know as that will carry much weight. Those 4 and Lumber Guy are the only ones that have tried graded company and none had much success.

I'm going to go with Adirondack King because he had a nice race at the distance in the Southwest against Secret Circle and was up against it in the Rebel with that far outside post. With this small field he may find some running room and naturally I'm shooting for a long one.

Baffert has 2 in here and I suppose they feel Stirred Up is the better of the 2 but I think Brigand is sitting on a big race. He has good speed and way back in July chased a very fast Majestic City and also went up against Creative Cause and I'll Have Another. He was given 6 months off just like I'll Have Another and we know how well he has done. He has 2 very fast works recently and gets a good boy up. I think he is probably the one to beat in here.

The Lumber Guy took them a long way in the Wood but I think that was basically a 2 horse race and he really faded in the stretch.

Stirred Up was a distant third in the Sun Derby which was another weak field aside from the top two. Garcia does make the trip to ride so that must mean something.

Right To Vote likes this distance and had a nice race against Union Rags way back in Oct. and was given some time off and came back with a win and could be a factor in here.

Term Loan is another that prefers the mile and ran a big number last out but I don't care for horses that run real big in first off a layoff.

Dan And Sheila closed a ton against Mr Bowling but that was kind of a slow race and none from that race have done well. Went in the Gotham and was only slightly involved early and aside from Hansen the others haven't done a thing since.

1- Adirondack king

2- Brigand

3- The Lumber Guy

4- Stirred Up

Long shot- Right To Vote

Good Luck,
Backstretch

Recap:

I had had my suspicions about those races at OP and this was another that helped confirm them. I had thought I might get some big odds on Adirondack Kingbut he only went off at 4/1. He is just another that ran a good one at OP but failed to duplicate it elsewhere.

Brigand looked like he was sitting on a big race, which he was, but was no match for The Lumber Guy. Baffert had his horses ready to run but after seeing TLG put Brigand away easily I'm inclined to think that Gem and Alpha in the Wood really ran a big race.

I'm not into speed figures when handicapping these 3 yr old races but look more to who has beaten who. I have made up my mind that those races at OP were not very good at all. Secret Circle had taken 2 of them in which he didn't beat much and Castaway took one in which he beat nothing at all. In the ARK Derby Secret Circle was the only competition for Bodemeister, if one might call it competition, so I'm of a mind to think that Bode's race is being way over rated. Of course everyone is raving about his Beyers number, but aside from the fact that I put no stock whatsoever in Beyers numbers, I know that very often horses that go unchallenged on the lead can put up some fantastic figures but seldom run back to them in a race with good competition. That's just my opinion.

Backstretch