Turfway R10 3/24/12 The Spiral
Is it possible to see a repeat of last year when Animal Kingdom won this and then the derby? I don't think so because in my opinion there is a dearth of nice horses this year compared to last.
I suppose we have got to wonder how some of these will take to the poly because that's always an unknown. I've only got three horses in here that fit my derby profile but a couple of them look very good.
I have Heavy Breathing who I'm going to make my choice for this. Has had 2 races and won both with the last being at this distance. I think he's bred to run all day and has good tactical speed so JJ should be able to put him wherever he likes.
Handsome Mike is a really well bred horse who has been running well but getting beat by being on a fast pace. I think with the switch to Joel they will try to rate him a little. If it weren't for that bad outside post I would probably pick him to win but I think he's going to get used hard to get a striking position unless he goes for the lead again which could be even more trouble.
I'm not crazy about Went The Day Well but Motion won this last year with Animal and looks to have this one coming up to a good race.
I'll round it out with Holiday Promise who has a lot of the same lines as Heavy Breathing. Has shown promise but this is first try against this kind of company. I think he's sitting on a big race and would not be surprised to see Pletcher take both top spots.
1- Heavy Breathing
2- Handsome Mike
3- Went The Day Well
4- Holiday Promise.
Sunland Derby R12 Sun. 3/25/12
There are only three horses in here that have my derby profile and 2 of them just broke their maiden. Isn't He Clever has a very nice pedigree and he has lots of experience. One thing I have noticed is that almost all the preps so far have been won by horses with experience. This guy has won 4 of 6 and was off the board only once and that was against some good ones, especially I'll Have Another, who ran a super good race. Incidently, I think that's the only prep race that a long shot won and he was one of my pedigree horses. If you recall, I had that big exacta in my picks that day.
Ender Knievel and Stirred Up both have nice breeding and fit my derby profile. I like the way Ender blew the field away in his last start but I think the pace was a little slow in that race and he was never challenged.
Stirred Up looks like he is just coming into his own after running a good race against Bodemeister who barely got beat by Creative Cause.
I know there are those that will think I'm crazy for dismissing Castaway but that's just what I'm going to do. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I think he will get beat here. He won the Southwest on the pace but the fractions were on the slow side. I also don't think there was anything in there to beat. A very mediocre field in my opinion.
I feel that Ender is going to be on the motor and the pace will be pretty quick so I feel that someone coming off the pace will take this one. I think Daddy Nose Best has a good shot if he doesn't fall too far off the pace. He beat a couple nice ones in his last but benefited from a super good ride by Julian. I also don't know how he will take to dirt, but of course, he may love it.
I'm really going to go out on a limb and stick with the pedigrees. After all, we did get that 44/1 shot strictly off the pedigree.
1- Isn't He Clever
2- Stirred Up
3- Ender Knievel
4- Daddy Nose Best
Good Luck,
Backstretch
RECAP
I was a little surprised that Heavy Breathing backed out of it but other than that the others ran well. I thought Mr. Motion had Went The Day Well ready for a big one and he sure did. He really knows how to get them ready this time of year.
I wasn't surprised by the effort of Holiday Promise because I think he is a very well bred colt and probably has a bright future in store.
Handsome Mike is a really nice colt and just can't seem to catch a good trip. He has a lot of speed but has gotten caught up in speed duels in the past and I thought the jockey switch, although I think Nakatani is a very good jock, might get him to rate a little. I was afraid the post would hurt him and he got off to a bad start anyway. Mike is a much better horse than his finishes have shown and sooner or later he's going to pop that big one.
Down at Sunland the hardest decision I had to make was dismissing Castaway. I don't care for his pedigree for the classics and though he may be a nice horse, I don't see him as a G1 colt.
As I thought it would, a speed duel ensued and set it up for the closer. I do feel that Isn't He Clever was used a little hard early and stayed a little close to that quick pace getting the lead in a fast 3/4. His connections have said they may try something like the Bluegrass if he ran a good race so maybe we haven't seen the last of him..
The race set up perfect for Daddy and he got another great ride from Julian. He has a nice style for the Derby and will probably be a major threat there.
I have been criticized by some who say I claim having the winner of these preps when I give 4 horses. That may be true to an extent because sometimes my top pick wins and other times it's one of the others that win.
I think that those who get down on me are missing the point, which is, to place a winning bet. In these type races it really doesn't matter if the winner is pinpointed or not because most players are going for the exotics, at least I know my clients are, and they are the ones I've got to keep happy.
Just by sticking with my pedigree likes I've had a 44/1 winner on top of my first choice, my first choice on top of another 44/1 shot several nice trifectas in addition to the exactas and in the Spiral all 4 of my picks were in the money making for a really nice super.
Seems like I'm able to get those long shots in there just by using their pedigrees although I have also been told I don't know anything about breeding.
So as a few friends, who are good handicappers, always say; the object is to make winning and profitable plays, don't worry about which horse actually wins, because whether you win or not is the only thing that counts. I certainly hope you won this week.
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