Newsletter # 34 Recap

Newsletter # 34  Sun. 9/2/12

The Sapling

MTH  R9  9/2/12:
Pletcher is making things a little difficult because he has two horses cross entered and we won't know which is running where until post time. The only thing I can do is include both in the Sapling and the Hopeful so I hope we don't have some confusion.

As you know I am going to pick them by pedigree rather than performance so I may have something on top that doesn't figure as well as some of the others.

Pletcher has Overanalyze and Lawn Man cross entered in addition to having Drum Roll in this race and Shanghai Bobby in the Hopeful. I understand he has about 120 2 yr. olds so he's loaded for bear. It seems that most of his youngsters score in their first start so he sure has them fired up.

He may be longer odds than his stable mate but I like the pedigree of Drum Roll over the others.
Lawn Man is well bred but he's one that I think will not get the Derby distance but will do well till that point.
Lucci the Lion, although a NY bred, has a really nice pedigree and may make an impression despite his low speed number.
Tap and Trade is a KY invader who is nicely bred and looks to be coming up to a big race. He showed a lot of improvement in his last and I think he will move forward off that one.
1- Drum Roll
2- Lawn Man
3- Overanalyze
4- Lucci the Lion
5- Tap and Trade

The Hopeful
SAR  R9  9/3/12:
This looks to be a better field than the Sapling and has more possiblities because there are some really well bred youngsters in here.

Bern Identity is probably going to be the favorite off his win in the Sanford plus having Ramon on his back. He's nicely bred even though I'm not in love with his type pedigree  he could be a good one.
Breen has another nice one in Vegas No Show who is cutting back in distance and may be coming at the end.

Shanghai Bobby looks to be the best of Pletcher's entries and I suppose Rosie is sticking with this one more out of keeping her connections than preferring the horse.
As far as Pletcher's other two, Overanalyze and Lawn Man I think either would have a better shot in the Sapling.

Asmussen usually has a few nice ones and Show Some Magic took a few starts to get his maiden win but could be a contender.

Lukas likes to throw maidens against winners for some reason or other and even though Royal Art has a nice pedigree I don't think he's ready for these yet.

Majestic Hussar blew them away in his only start in the slop and could win some more in sprints but I'm not too keen on him down the line when they start stretching out.

Fortify has a pedigree that I just love. I think he's bred to run all day in addition to having speed. He's one of a few that is running without lasix and I'm hoping he can prove that good ones don't need it. Bravo doesn't ride a lot of Mc Laughlin's horses but does well when he does get the mount. I know Jersey Joe isn't ranked up there with the top NY jocks but when he has a good horse he pulls off a lot of upsets. I think he is very under rated and doesn't get bet the way he should when in NY.

1- Fortify
2- Shanghai Bobby
3- Bern Identity
4- Show Some Magic
5- Lawn Man

Good Luck,
Backstretch

RECAP
A few scratches in the Sapling left nothing much in there. Brave Dave shot out to the lead and set some fast fractions but nobody could close on him in spite of the last 1/4 being relatively slow. I wasn't impressed by this race.

It was a nice field in the Hopeful and Bobby proved to be much the best making him 3 for 3. Looks like he may be a real good one but I think he will have distance limitations come derby time. Even though Fortify couldn't catch the winner I wonder what will happen when the others run without lasix as he does. I think we will hear more from Fortify in the future.
Backstretch