Newsletter # 33 Recap

Newsletter # 33  Sat.  8/25/12

The Travers  Sar R12

With all the leading 3 yr old contenders having been injured, sick or retired, this years race looks to be a battle of the survivors, none of which has been really impressive. Seems unlikely that the Travers would only have one G1 winner,Liaison, in it but it is what it is.

Alpha, the favorite, has been handled nicely by always picking his spots and it still seems to be working well because, as I said, there's nothing in here that's been impressive. He may win this race on form alone but I am still waiting to see one with his type of pedigree get the 1 1/4 distance on top so I will go against him here. If he wins, he wins, but until he does I will still buck those type pedigrees.

There are 5 in here that have pedigrees I like but none has yet to race to their potential.
Speightscity has a very nice pedigree, although I just read that there's no way he can get the distance because of his sire. I just don't understand these experts that base their opinion of a horse's distance ability solely on the sire. This same "Expert" also said Alpha can get any distance based on his sire.
Speightscity has been badly mishandled all year and jumping into this race off a 6 mo. layoff because of an injury seems to be an indication of more crazy training. They intend to send him to the front and see how far he will go which may put some pace in the race if nothing else.

Street Life has a decent pedigree and is in the hands of a very good trainer. He looks to want a distance but is going to have to be more involved early to be effective and I don't know if he's up to it.

Atigun is well bred but the only race he showed something was the Belmont and that race usually produces some flukey results. I am however discounting the Jim Dandy race because I feel that race was stolen by Alpha by being allowed to set a snail's pace on a sloppy track. In that race Atigun was held way off that slow pace and had no chance to gain.

Liaison has a nice pedigree and is the only G1 winner in the race which he won as a 2yr old. They were always high on him but he just couldn't put it all together for some reason even though trained by Baffert. He gained ground and finished strong in the J. Dandy slow walk in his first over the track. They didn't ship him back to CA so he has had a couple works here and Bejarano flies in for this. I think he will get a piece and could actually win it all.

Nonios doesn't have my kind of pedigree but off performance I think he's the one that should be the chalk. None of these has run as well as he did chasing Paynter in the Haskell. I think Paynter is the best 3 yr old out there and would be 2/5 in this race. Nonios chased him and hung in very well. Another plus is that he gets JR in the saddle. He showed he can run close up and stay so I don't think he will let anyone steal this.

I really love the pedigree of Fast Falcon. This is a lightly raced colt and he hasn't shown any big numbers yet but I feel the potential is there. In the Jim Dandy he made a nice move turning for home and got within striking distance of the leaders but then backed down. I kind of think this was a combination of being a little short on condition and with the slow pace nobody was going to catch the two leaders anyway. I can't discount him because of one oddball race and I have seen Zito score with many a bomb over the years. Also, not that Rosie isn't a good jock, I think that Junior is a little better and may improve his chances. I'm going to take a big chance with this one and shoot for the moon.

I don't think much of the rest even though this is a wide open race.

1- Fast Falcon
2- Nonios
3- Liaison
4- Atigun
Longshots- Street Life, Speightscity


RECAP

I think this race actually had a pretty soft pace and everyone knew that the two leaders wouldn't stay no matter how slow they went. Alpha and Golden Ticket were sitting 3rd and 4th in perfect stalking positions where they wern't being used at all. When the two up front quit they were in perfect position to take over. Being that they had an easy time of it they had plenty left for the drive.

The most impressive horse was Fast Falcon. The far outside post really hurt him because he had to drop back to last to get over or be hung out to dry around the turn.

In addition to having to drop back to dead last because of the bad post, this is what junior had to say after the race;

"All of a sudden by the three-eighths pole (Street Life) just stopped in front of me when I thought he was going to start to kick up," said Junior Alvarado, rider of Fast Falcon. "So, I had to move up, check a little bit and move outside. He started to pick it up again, but I'm sure that's what cost me the race."

I really didn't think Alpha could get the distance but being that the race was so ordinary I'm really not that surprised. Looking into the future, I feel that Fast Falcon is a horse to be reckoned with before the year is out. He has one of the very best pedigrees I've seen all year and, not having raced as a 2yr old, I think he is a late bloomer who is just coming into his own. I'm hoping to see him in the JGC next.
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