Newsletter # 37 Recap

Newsletter  # 37  Sat. 9/22/12

Pennsylvania Derby

Parx R 11

As you know, the newsletter was meant to keep an eye on this year's 2 yr olds and their trek to the Triple Crown as 3 yr olds. I also planned on keeping to the graded races because it's a huge chore to keep tabs on all the babies that are running. Since there are no graded races for the youngsters this week I thought I would give a look at what's left of this year's 3 yr olds in the PA Derby.

It doesn't look like any of the 3 yr olds will be taking on older horses this year as in years past when they have a chance at a million bucks against their own kind. It looks like the present day champs are going to prove to be a cut below past heros because one of the tests for the champion 3 yr old was to be able to beat older horses, like in the JGC race. With all the horses being hurt or retired in their 3 yr old seasons it doesn't leave all that many really good older horses left to compete against anyway.

It's too bad in my opinion that the ranks of the 3 yr olds are so thinned that the field for this race is such that there are only two in it that have won a grade 1 and one that has won a grade 2. As far as pedigrees, I can't eliminate anyone on their pedigree as they all have nice breeding but most have not lived up to their full potential.

Alpha will be the chalk and his connections have actually done a masterful job of getting him into the softest spots possible. Not that he doesn't always bring his A game to the track but I don't see where he's beaten anything note worthy. I think he stole the Jim Dandy against a nothing field and was all out to deadheat another who hasn't accomplished much. He's a nicely bred horse that I think is still limited to 1 1/8 even though he managed to beat a sup par field in the Travers. This is another race without much quality, if there's any quality left in this crop at all.

Macho Macho has the papers to qualify here. He beat Bourbon Courage, who is a very nice one that came back to win the LA Derby and has not thrown a bad race since Asmussen has had him and I think he can handle these.

I know Golden Ticket ran a dead heat with Alpha last time but I think he got lucky with his trip. Also, in that race I felt that the best horse ran third because of a bad trip. GT has been fairly steady against lesser and ran a liftime best last time but I have doubts that he can repeat that.

Handsome Mike is a horse that I had thought to be better than he looks but never seems to get the right trip. When he has tried the front end there has been somebody running neck and neck with him. He ran into Paynter in the Haskell at MTH and didn't run all that bad. I'm hoping to see him use his speed to track the leaders one time and maybe show more than he has in the past.

Casual Trick is one that I liked way back when but it doesn't seem like Zito has been able to get it together this year. He had Fast Falcon wake up in the Travers so maybe things are starting to come together for him.

1- Macho Macho
2- Alpha
3- Handsome Mike
4- Casual Trick
Long Shot- Stephanoatsee

I don't usually do the filly races but I have an interest in a couple youngsters this year. In a couple of weeks a nice Irish filly named Watsdachances is going in the Miss Grillo stakes at BEL and her next stop, if all goes well, is the Breeders Cup. My interest is that a good friend of mine is one of the owners and I like to feel I had a small part in his investing in her. It will be fun to root for her and it would be swell to see her win the BC. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
                                                                RECAP

Originally I had tossed Alpha because I couldn't think of one really good horse he had beaten, seemed like his spots were well picked and soft. I thought that Macho Macho would be the horse to beat off his last and this race could have been a lot closer if MM hadn't lost so much ground by running extremely wide around the first turn. He also had a see-saw trip but was running strong at the end. I ended up putting him back in the mix because he has been consistent but I guess that was a mistake.

I had liked Handsome Mike in several races this year but he was never able to get clear on the front end and ended up in a speed duel each time. I had keyed him in that El Camino race and thought he ran great although tiring at the end. He has a great pedigree and I felt he would shine sooner or later.

I never liked the pedigree of Alpha because I thought he has distance limitations. He did win at 1 1/4 against a nothing field and he managed to steal the Dandy race against nothing again. He is a much over rated horse beyond 1 1/16.

I would have liked to see Fast Falcon in this race but now I have no idea what's next for him. I think he could be the best left of the 3 yr. olds by years end.

At any rate, it was a profitable race for me and mine and now looking to the Breeders Cup to cap off a nice year of winning bets.

Backstretch