Newsletter # 35 Recap

Newsletter # 35  Sat. 9/8/12

AP  R7  Arlington-Washington Futurity

This race doesn't have any of the young stars that were running at Sar but one never knows where a future star may pop up. This race was a more important race years ago but now being only a G3 with a relatively small purse it looks like the big timers are skipping it.

There are a few nice horses in this led by Muppet Man. I like his pedigree with all that Bold Ruler in him. He's a speedy type and an old lesson is to never bet against an undefeated horse. He has the rail but I don't think that's an advantage in a one turn race like this. Off his first two starts he looks like the one to beat. A homebred that's done everything right so far.

G. Gomez comes in from CA for this although I don't think he will make much difference. M. Mena won last time with Pataky Kid and he's a very capable jock. Petaky's pedigree is so-so but he's coming up to his third race so should improve some more but he's going to have to get closer to the pace in this one and his very sharp works say he may be sharpened enough to contend a little earlier.

I like the pedigree of Scissortail, another Okla bred like Pataky Kid, and though she's still a maiden I look for some big improvement in this one. She ran into trouble in her last but could be closer to the pace today. Maybe Donnie thinks this is a softer spot than the filly race.

Stormin Monarcho is very nicely bred and seems to give a decent effort each time he runs. Was too far off the pace in last against Muppet and had a rough trip in the race with Mylute. May be better than he looks on paper.

Mylute is one of those with a pedigree that sometimes fools me. He must be a nice looker judging by the price he brought at the sales. His sire Midnight Lute was a good one but a lot of the best sires are horses that match up well with a lot of mares. I don't care for this match but, as I said, I sometimes get fooled by this type so I can't discount him. He's run well in all his starts and the jock is having a good year. I also don't think the post will be a hinderence at this track and distance.

1- Muppet Man
2- Patacky Kid
3- Mylute
4- Stormin Monarcho
Long shot- Scissortail G

LAD  R10  The Super Derby

I'm wondering if this could be a race like the West Virgina Derby where Hansen folded up. In that race Bourbon Courage came from way back and couldn't quite get up. I really like his pedigree and think he likes a distance of ground. He ran into some very fast horses at a shorter distance at CD and BEL and think he might like the pace a tad slower. I know that those that put a lot of stock in dosage numbers and consider the sire the most important horse in the pedigree feel this horse can't get a distance but I always say; "Look at the mares", and the mares in this pedigree have great sire lines.

Fly Lexis Fly has a super nice pedigree and should improve off his first start in the US. Has some sharp works and with blinkers off may rate a little more kindly. I suppose G. Gomez had his choice and took Pataky Kid figuring it was an easier spot but Garcia thought it worthwhile to come in from CA.

Blueskiesandrainbows is a quick one and is coming off a win in the Swaps. However, the two he beat in that race went in the Travers and didn't show much at all, but of course, the Travers was tougher than this one. He got a liftime best Beyers in his last but he may get a lot of pressure in here and I'm not sure he can hold up. I'm not fond of his pedigree either so I'm looking to beat him and get some value.

Rousing Sermon is one of those with a kind of mixed up pedigree and really hasn't won anything noteworthy and was beaten here at this distance by Hero of order who virtually wired the field at 100/1. Having M. Smith on his back can only help because I regard Mike as probably the best closing jock in the country. Should get a minor piece.

Key Donation has a fair pedigree and seems to be on the upswing and has been right there in all his races except his first that was a sprint taken off the weeds. Has a very hot boy up and can't be eliminated.

1- Bourbon Courage
2- Fly Lexis Fly
3- Blueskiesandrainbows
4- Rousing Sermon
Long shot- Key Donation
Backstretch
RECAP

Patacky Kid did show some sharper speed and laid just off the pace and had a good closing kick to take all the marbles. Muppet man ran another good one but just wasn't good enough.

The Super Derby went as I thought it would with Hero of Order putting pressure on Blueskiesandrainbows who is one that I think needs a clear lead. Many times a speed horse can outrun it's pedigree if allowed to get away on the lead with no pressure and Blueskies is that type.

Bourbon Courage has a really nice pedigree and after this win I expect him to go on to bigger and better things. Despite the dosage I think he could get 1 1/4 with no problem. He has great acceleration on the turns where it really counts.

As I thought he would, Fly Lexis Fly ran a much improved race and with the blinkers off rated better but I feel he was held a little too far off the early pace but wasn't going to catch the winner in any case. He's another with a great pedigree who should move forward off this race.

I have read a lot of negative comments about Mike Smith that I don't feel are deserved. Regardless of what anyone else says, my opinion is that there is no better come from behind jock in the country. Mike gave Rousing Sermon a good ride and got what he could out of it. Rousing Sermon is a plodder type and has never won anything but State Bred races so I didn't expect him to get anything but a minor piece. I guess there are those who think Mike should have gotten off and carried the horse to the finish line.

Backstretch