Newsletter # 29 Sat. 7/28/12 Recap

Newsletter # 29  Sat. 7/28/12

Jim Dandy Stakes
Saratoga R 10 7/28/12

I had several of these on my early KY Derby list but they just couldn't run to their potential. It looks like, although some are nice horses, they are not on a par with some who have run much better to date. I feel that by the time they have run 10 races they have given a pretty good indication of what they can do. There are some that keep maturing and don't come into their own until their 4 yr old season but as of now we can only go by what we have seen of them.

This looks to be a much better betting race than the Haskell because there looks to be more contenders. In fact, this race could be up for grabs so I would be looking for some real value in my bets.
Every horse in here has a nice pedigree and it's difficult to seperate them by breeding except for one that I think has an outstanding pedigree, especially for the classic distances of 1 1/4 and more.

Taken in order;
Alpha is a nice horse but, for the same reasons as Hansen, I always had big doubts about him getting a classic distance. And, like Hansen, I think 1 1/8 is stretching it a little unless he gets a perfect trip. In this race he has a chance because there are only a few who have had any success at all at this distance. He gets Ramon which is a big plus and he draws the rail. Should be the chalk but I think he can be beat.

Fast Falcon has one of the very best pedigrees I've seen all year. Looks like he's bred to run all the way to Hosh Kosh and back. He has improved with every race and I don't think he has come close to his best yet. He's only had 5 races and if he improves again in conjunction with the added distance he can take this race. I like his running style and it looks like he can stay within striking distance of a fast pace. I know I'm going out on a limb here and may get egg on my face but one doesn't make money in this game by betting what is obvious and everyone else sees. I'm really excited about this one and if he should run big I look forward to a showdown in the Travers between him and Paynter.

Atigun is a nice horse and I picked him in the money in the Belmont. My problem with him is I just don't think he's quite fast enough. I know he looked good in the Belmont but in my opinion that race was an aberration in that Paynter slowed the pace down way too much. That race could have gone at least a second or two faster.

Neck 'n Neck's last two seem to be a huge improvement speed wise over his previous races. I don't know what he faced but am thinking it wasn't much. He's not been too far behind a couple good ones but he could be around at the finish if his last two were for real. Never been too keen on his pedigree.

My Adonis is nicely bred and I took a long look at him in several races but he hasn't shown any ability to close and seems too weak on the front end. He should be up on the pace here and might at least make for an honest pace.

Teeth Of The Dog has a decent pedigree and has some speed but I don't think he wants more than 1 1/16. He did run third against Gem but the ones he beat in that race weren't much.

Liaison has a very nice pedigree and was highly regarded last year but went bad for some reason. Of course he was meeting the best and couldn't handle them but Baffert looks to have him back on track and I think he will be a factor in here.

Prospective is a nicely bred inbred horse who has been very consistent. He was very game in theTampa Derby but he really hasn't shown he can compete against the top of the line horses. Has handled this distance but only beat a few much lesser horses.

!- Fast Falcon
2- Liaison
3- Alpha
4- Teeth Of The Dog

The Haskell

MTH R 13 SUN. 7/29/12

Even though this is an important race I'm not going to dwell on it much because I see no value. It will be an interesting race to watch but not one to bet on unless you happen to be a chalk eater.

They all have nice pedigrees but as far as that goes I think Paynter has the best breeding. I had said in an earlier blog that I thought he was better than Bodemeister but I think Bode will be better at stud.
The only question I have is if anyone will be able to run down Paynter. I think he should have won the Belmont with ease but Smith failed, in addition to leaving a hole for Rags, to take advantage of the superior pace ability of Paynter. Speed is useless unless one uses it and he slowed the pace way too much and failed to make the others work to keep up. JMO of course.

I was very high on Gemologist and Dullahan early in the year and still think they are really good horses. I thought one of the best runs I saw all year was Dullahan running down Hansen in the Bluegrass. In the Belmont he was sitting alongside Rags on the backstretch and it looked to me that JJ wanted to be off the pace more and took him back. Big mistake with the pace being as slow as it was.

I liked Gem in the derby and don't know what happened to him. They say he suffered an injury and that could very well be. If he's in top shape he will be tough.

1- Paynter
2- Gemologist
3- Dullahan
4- Nonios
Recap

Well. I'm still wiping egg off my face. I guess I was wrong about Fast Falcon in the Jim Dandy, but having said that, I really don't think this race proved anything.
Alpha got an easy lead on a sloppy track and the race was over as soon as it started. I expected My Adonis to show some early run as he usually does but that was not to be. There have been so many races where there is no more than one horse with quality speed and that horse is able to steal away to an easy uncontested lead. At least in the Haskell we had a real horse race and Paynter showed he's in a league of his own. If he goes in the Travers I think it would be his race to lose as I don't feel that Alpha will get close to him.

I am willing to throw out races in the slop, especially if a speed horse gets an uncontested lead. Saw way too many of those type races in the last 60 yrs. to be taken in by the winners of those. I still think Fast Falcon is a good one but may need a little more seasoning.

I'll probably be doing the Best Pal at DMR next week as that's a graded race for 2 yr olds. See you then.
Backstretch