Newsletter # 28 Sat. 7/22/12 Recap

Newsletter # 28  Sat. 7/21/12

The Sanford

SAR  R9  Sun.  7/22/12

Before getting to the race I wanted to mention a report I read. According to the item, a bunch of prominent horses owners say they plan to race their 2 yr olds without lasix this year. I don't know what the final ruling was from the Breeders Cup but they were supposed to have a rule in place regarding 2 yr olds racing without lasix this year.

There are a lot of pros and cons on this issue with some good arguments on both sides but personally I would like to see lasix phased out. Maybe it's because I've been around so long and played the races long before lasix was used but I just don't seem to remember that many bleeders.

I happen to think that using lasix, which is a diuretic, has some bad effects over the long haul by leeching out calcium and other minerals from the body which can weaken the bones. I suppose it is a good thing that it prevents bleeding from the lungs but my question is, why is it given to 95% of all horses before they have even had a race? Is every horse a bleeder to the extent that it affects their racing ability?

Now to the race at hand; It seems like every year there are a lot of pedigrees with different approaches. By that, I mean that the mares are being sent to a different type stallion than has been the practise in the past. Some of these may turn out good but there aren't too many of them that fit my patterns of classic runners.
I only find a few in this race that meet my standards and they are not of my preferred type. Some of them have some excellent lines but the mares are not where I'd like to see them.

I like 4 in here and they are Hightail, John Gordon, Onetwentyeight and Rose Junction. Of these the one I like least is Hightail although they paid a small fortune for him. Maybe he hasn't done so well so far because of the trainer. Could be that Lukas hasn't kept up with the times and the question arises as to why he keeps racing a maiden against winners.

It's really hard to decide between the other three, two of which are Pletcher's horses. They both broke their maiden in handy fashion at Belmont, both were in a field of six, both were the chalk and both wired the field. Rose Junction got a higher Beyer but it was also a shorter race than Onetwentyeight. I am giving the edge to Rose Junction because, although 128 has an out cross, I like the line that Rose is crossed with and I like the position in the pedigree which I can't say for 128.

The pedigree of John Gordon is the type that has been a classic standard for quite a few years as far as the horses that influence the pedigree most. I know he was beaten by Good Tickled but I don't favor Good Tickled's pedigree nor his form cycle. JG ran a very nice race against Positively who almost won the Bashford despite trouble in the race and coming out with a shin problem. Both Positively and Circle Unbroken, the first two in the Bashford have really nice breeding and could be a cut above these. Being that JG has an equal pedigree and has ran well in all of his races he could have a little edge in experience.
1- Rose Junction....only because Pletcher usually has them all cranked up early.
2- John Gordon...getting his 4th different jockey but I'll leave that up to Dale.
3- Onetwentyeight...wouldn't be a big surprise to see Pletch run 1-2
4- Bern Identity...has some real stamina horses in his pedigree but a little mixed up for my taste but if it clicks he could be a real good one.
Long Shot- Hightail
Good Luck,
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Recap

This race was a lot like the Hollywood Juvenile last week when the leaders ran each other into the ground.
Bern Identity got a lot of action and went off as the favorite. He got a perfect trip sitting just off the speed and Caught Handsome Jack near the wire but I thought Handsome Jack showed a lot of guts by dueling all the way with 2 others and putting them away. Looking at the pace in the race and the way Jack hung in I think he was probably best in this race.
The closers kind of had it set up for them with the torrid pace but the only one close enough to be able to catch the leader was the winner.
Onetwentyeight showed good energy at the end and was closing fast. I didn't like the ride on John Gordon at all. He actually broke on top but Garcia immediately grabbed hold of him and took him way back to the rear where he had no chance to get into the race. Maybe he just wasn't fast enough to keep up but I'll be watching to see what he does in his next race.
We've had 2 graded races for 2 yr olds and in both races the pace was fast and the leaders buried themselves. Both races were sprints and with the leaders killing each other I don't think we can make a case for any of them yet. I think we will just have to wait for some longer distance races to sort them out a little. Handsome Jack did impress me a little, but as far as going to the classics, I don't think he's bred to handle the longer distances. We do have the BC Sprint that may showcase a few of these but I'm looking for those derby type horses and will know a lot more by the time the BC rolls around.
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