Newsletter # 27 Sat. 7/14/12 Recap

Newsletter # 27  Sat. 7/14/12

Before getting to this week's race, a word about the young horses. We tend to have a few different groups of 2 yr olds each year. They are different because of their age and degree of maturity. There are the foals that are dropped early in the year and the later ones in April or later. In addition to the early foals some are more precocious than others and these early ones tend to dominate the early races.

There are those that get a later start and don't get rolling until early in the next year or some have a start or two and are injured and given time off. We also have some that are really late getting started and don't have a chance to run until they are 3 yr olds.

What this means is that the horses that look really good early on and even in the BC may not be so good when the others have a chance to catch up. This situation suggests that one shouldn't get overly enthused about the early winners. It's a long way to the Triple Crown preps and the big races themselves.

Another thing I want to mention is that I will only be writing about 2 and 3 yr old stakes races. By the time horses are 4 yrs old their ability has pretty well been established and the races for older horses may just as well be tackled by other handicapping methods. I will be covering the 2 and 3 yr old stakes only, which means there may be a week here and there that there will be no race to cover and in that case I will just write about some of my thoughts on handicapping or pedigrees.

Hollywood Juvenile Championship G3  Race 2  Sat. 7/14/12

This is only a sprint but there have been a few very good horses such as Dixie Union that have won this one. There are a few nice pedigrees in here and a couple that are a little unusual because they have several out-crosses in them, not the run of the mill types.

The first one I like is the favorite, Amarish. A really nice bred colt with an out-cross top and bottom. Has had 2 races and won them both in nice fashion. Hard to buck this one.

Scherer Magic is another with a double dose of out-cross and an inbred family. He was entered in a claiming race in his only start and was claimed. Would seem to be making a big jump here from claiming to graded stakes but it's not like this hasn't been done before. Blew them away under a hand ride and could be a good one. The only knock I have against him is he's only had one race and these sometimes bounce in their next
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Strong Wind is a state bred but his pedigree suggests that he can run all day and then some. State bred to graded stake is quite a jump but these are 2 yr olds and it will take some time to find out how good or bad they are. I'll give this guy a shot down the road.

Just Call Me Al has a pedigree of a type that is quite common to some very good runners. He may be a tad below these at this point but could be heard from later.

Confederate Recon has classic type breeding that I really like. He was beaten by Carson's Crown in his last but got off to a bad start which usually spells curtains in a 5f sprint. I think he will appreciate the extra furlong.
Carson's Crown has some champions in his pedigree but I just don't care for the alignment of the females. May be a good one but one that eludes me.

Dirty Swagg is one that I can't quite get a handle on his pedigree. He might be a good one but since it's not clear cut to me I'll pass on him for now.

1- Amarish
2- Scherer Magic
3- Confederate Recon
4- Just Call Me Al
Longshot- Strong Wind

Recap
I don't know what those jocks were thinking but Maldonado on Amarish and Krigger on Strong Wind were both determined to get the lead and ran each other into the ground. Actually, after a 1/4 Krigger was sitting nicely on Amarish's flank in a good stalking position but for some reason decided to go for the lead with about a 1/2 left to run. They hit the stretch head and head and Amirish quit but Strong Wind kept on and managed to hold on for 4th. Confederate Recon chased the leaders for a 1/2 but couldn't stay with them.

Result-
1- Scherer Magic
2- Carson's Crown
3- Just Call Me Al
4- Strong Wind

I wouldn't discount Amarish and Strong Wind off this race because, even though the fractions didn't look all that fast, I think it was a suicidal pace and they could both bounce right back.
It could be that the fast pace set it up for the top two;

Scherer Magic, the winner, was claimed out of his debut for 50 Gs and Gary Barber, the owner, picked him out. Pretty ballsy claim being that he's an Iowa bred and a gelding at that. I don't know if he had seen the horse working or if, like me, he just loved his pedigree. Sadler said Gary is a riverboat gambler and not afraid to go with his gut. He's supposed to have been nominated on Sun. to the BC so hopefully we'll see a lot more of him in the future.

Sadler's other entry, Carson's Crown ran a nice race to get second but I still have doubts about his long distance ability but he may very well prove me wrong. Sometimes I just can't get a good read on a pedigree and they really fool me.

No 2 yr old stakes coming up for a time but I will still be looking at the 3 yr olds. The Haskell is looking to be a contentious race, especially with Bodemeister out. We might see a latecomer step up to the plate and they may also enter Hansen.
Till next time,
Backstretch