Newsletter # 30 8/4/12 Recap

Newsletter # 30 Sat. 8/4/12

MNR R1  MNR Juvenile
The reason I'm looking at this race is that I'm interested to see what Circle Unbroken does. I won't be betting because he will be very short odds but I want to see how much potential he has. I like his breeding and think he will handle more distance later on in the 2 yr old stakes. It's possible he could be a factor when the breeders Cup rolls around. He beat Positively last time, although that one exited the race with an injury, and I really like Postively's pedigree. We will just have to wait and see if Circle can handle the likes of the colts that will be contesting the stakes at the spa.

This race is a little unusual in that there are 3 geldings in here. We normally don't see 2 yr old geldings in thse type races and if any turn out to be good it means they will keep racing rather than be retired at an early age.
Several in here have nice pedigrees but only a couple have shown ability at this point but one never knows with these babies because they may show sudden improvement at any time.

1- Circle Unbroken
2- Maybe So
3- Triple Cross
4- Pitch N Roll
Long shot- No Way R J

DMR R8 The Best Pal G2

Before I get into this race I want to repeat something I've said many times over the years; I don't care what the numbers say, "Only the horses know if they are going fast or slow". After every major race the pundits are always commenting about how fast or slow the pace was according to the fractions. What is considered a slow pace may actually be a fast pace and the reverse is also true. I don't care what the numbers say, I consider how the pace is contested. For instance, in the recent Haskell, everyone is saying that Gemologist was terrible and that he is finished. This is being said because he tired badly and finished up the track. I happen to think he tired because he set a very fast pace regardless of what the fractions were. Why do I say this? I heard, from one that examined the track, that, although listed as fast, the track was actually very sticky.

 Another thing I noticed was that Nakatani, who is an excellent judge of pace, (see Nehro in the KY Derby) started to move on the leaders with Nonios on the backstretch in the Haskell but quickly changed his mind. I believe he thought they were going too fast and he backed off. Although no match for Paynter, he finished second. I wouldn't dismiss Gem off that race just yet.

I mention all this because in the race at hand we have a couple who were in the HOl Juv. last time and that was a race where I thought the 2 leaders were on a suicide mission. Amarish and the other horse ridden by Krigger were both determined to get the lead and neither would give an inch and they cooked one another.

In this race there are some nice pedigrees, starting with Heir Of Storm who is nicely bred but has the Mr Prospector line in the wrong positions to qualify for the classics by my standards. May be a good one up to a little more than a mile but won't get longer. Breeding says he may be a precocious one and be a contender early on. Gets lasix for this one.

Moreno has what I call a Heinz "57" pedigree which is not to my liking. May be kind of quick in sprints but I'm not looking past that. Is still a maiden.

Miss Empire is a filly taking a shot at the boys. I'm not crazy about her pedigree although it's loaded with stamina. I would think her best chances will come in much longer races.

Scherer Magic is one that I liked last time. Has a really nice pedigree and I love all that Tom Fool blood in it. He could turn out to be the best that Iowa has ever produced. I'm hoping he goes on to bigger and better things because he's also a gelding and would keep on racing if all went well.

Heir Kitty has a lovely pedigree and the only knock I have against it is that it's another with those Mr Prospector mares in the wrong slots. I like the damsire line and that could make a difference with this one.

Amarish is a well bred colt with an outcross in his pedigree. I would think that he would relish a distance but not the way he ran his last. As I said, he really got cooked last time and the best can get burned out in that manner so I think he deserves another chance, especially if he gets an uncontested lead if that's the way they want to run.

K Court, not a bad pedigree but not exactly the kind I like. He may get better with more distance.

1- Scherer Magic...hoping he's for real
2- Amarish...seems to be the speed...can bounce back but may be faint hearted.
3- Heir Of Storm...Should like this distance..1st lasix may help
4- Miss Empire..giving her a shot because she should be coming on late...stablemate may prefer turf.

Backstretch

Recap:

The Mountaineer race was a good battle between the top two with Maybe So just edging Circle Unbroken. Both may turn out to be nice colts down the road. Triple Cross was scratched so our top 3 were all in the money.

The Best Pal was a bummer for me because I was using the DRF PPs and never looked at entries which caused me to not see Know More who was on another page in the DRF.

This is not saying I would have picked him to win but he had the best pedigree by far of all that were in the race. If you recall, I'll Have Another ran second in this race last year getting beat by Creative Cause and we know the rest of the story. The kicker is that Know More has the same connections as IHA. They said they had a plan for I'll Have Another last year and followed it and probably will get the 3yr old of the year award.
I also read that they think Know More is the best one they have this year so they may have a plan for him also. There have been some really good horses that have won this race in the past so I'm forced to think that Know More will be one of the leading contenders heading to the Triple Crown next year.

Miller had 2 fillies in here and they ran 2nd and 3rd with Miss Empire stumbling at the start forcing her to come a long way to get up for the show. She should relish a longer distance and I think she should be a major factor with the girls later on.

As a side note, Strong Wind, who dueled with Amarish in their previous race came back to win a minor stake wire to wire while Amarish folded again in this race. Amarish is nicely bred but seems to be really faint hearted. Of course, the pace in this race may have been a tad fast but the runnerup filly stayed on well so I don't think the top two choices in this race, Scherer Magic and Amarish, can handle a quick pace.

Lookin At Lucky and Dixie Union were also winners of this race so perhaps history will be repeated.

Backstretch