Newsletter # 20 RECAP

Newsletter # 20- Sat. 5/19/12


Pimlico  R12  The Preakness


Maybe this race should be called the Storm Cat Stakes. We have four horses in here, Tiger Walk, Teeth Of The Dog, Pretension and Creative Cause, that are sired by sons of Storm Cat, and in addition, Bodemeister is out of a Storm Cat mare.

However, this doesn't mean that I like all of their pedigrees. Of all the Storm Cat horses in here I only like the pedigrees of Bodmeister and Creative Cause. Bode has a pretty straight forward pedigree in that he's really inbred to the Nearco line of horses which an awful lot of our good horses are, especially when there is a Raise A Native sire line.

As I wrote last year concerning Animal Kingdom, I feel it is about time to start out crossing all these inbred horses as Animal Kingdom was. We have 3 in here that have been crossed with a non-Phalaris line.

Creative Cause's maternal G. Dam was sired by the Man O' War line and his dam was brought back to the Nearco lines which makes for a nice re-cross, as I call it. I like these kind of horses because they have Hybrid Vigor and are usually very tough individuals.

Went The Day Well is an out-crossed horse but there's not much inbreeding to begin with. I really like to see totally inbred horses out crossed. This is another crossed with the Man O'War line. Some of these are good like these two and Gemologist but I like to see the inbreds crossed with something like a foreign line.

I'll Have Another has the type of breeding that I love. His dam is the result of a cross of the Ribot sire line and an inbred Nearco line and his dam is bred right back to a sire that's inbred to Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector and everything is in perfect alignment. I personally feel this horse has unlimited potential.

Bode will probably be the chalk again but unless they do something to soup up the track I think he will lose. He set a very fast pace in the derby on a track that was extremely speed biased and I'll Have Another was only a few lengths back after 3/4 and finished full of run. There were 3 others that came within a length of catching Bode so the finish was actually pretty close.

I think they will try to slow Bode down a little this time but that will put a few horses well within striking range. Also, there won't be a huge field to run interference for the leader. Bode may try to wire them again but I'm bucking him. Not that I think he can't get the distance but I think he has run his best races on very speed favoring tracks and if the track is fair I think he's in trouble.

1- I'll Have Another
2- Creative Cause
3- Went The Day Well
4- Bodemeister

Backstretch


RECAP

It seems like we all look at races differently. Bode went too fast early in the Derby and some of those same people say he went too slow early in the Preakness. All I know is that I'll Have Another beat Bode on a super highway and then beat him on a dirt road.

I found an article that caught my eye because the writer picked the Preakness exactly as I did. The writer is much better than I am when it comes to presenting a point but if I were to write all that I thought about the race it would be almost exactly as he has written so I suggest you read it.

Since I despise Beyers figures I was especially interested in his research in regards to actual times. I want to thank him for saving me a ton of work so I may concentrate on my pedigree work.

  http://www.xpressbet.com/ReadPostTime

Now to the Belmont where I think we will see a TC winner. The Belmont has had spoilers in the past and it's sometimes been a newcomer. I am thinking there is a possibility that Baffert could exact his revenge in this race with Paynter. I just love his pedigree and will discuss it more in my newsletter for the Belmont.