Newsletter # 19 Recap

Newsletter # 19 - Sat. 5/12/12

Belmont  R9  Peter Pan

This race is supposed to be a prep for the Belmont, and even though there have been Belmont winners that were late comers, I don't see any of these as being any kind of threat.

A couple of them, Zetterholm and Teeth Of The Dog, have defected to have a go at the Preakness. Mighty ambitious on their part I am thinking.

I usually handicap these races by pedigree and there have been quite a few races where I've had a lot of trouble making up my mind because there were so many with really nice pedigrees. However, this race has nothing that impresses me and I don't see any of them getting the Belmont distance, especially against the kind of horses that will be running in it.

Except for Good Morning Diva and Summer Front the pedigrees are mostly of the "Heinz 57" type. Diva does have a nice pedigree but so far has looked to be distance challenged. He didn't have a chance in the Swale because Trinniberg just ran everyone off their feet. Came back and won a two turn race but one that was taken off the grass and I never put much stock in those races. His only chance is if he can be rated off the pace and that is probably what Leparoux will try to do.

Summer Front has a fairly nice pedigree but might be better suited for the turf. Ran second in the Lexington last time but was beaten by a 70/1 shot and couldn't make any headway against the winner in the stretch. Overall, there wasn't much in that race to begin with.

This race has a lot of speed in it and Lumber Guy looks like the one that can carry his speed better than the rest. He had good speed into the stretch in the Wood and came back to wire them in the Jerome so he should be the one to catch, unless one of the others runs with him to take some of the starch out of him.

Mark Valeski has enough speed to sit a stalking position and Rosie should get good position from the 4 hole. Has run a couple of good ones but couldn't catch that 100/1 shot in the LA Derby so maybe has trouble finishing them off.

Summer Front has never tried dirt but has a work here and a lot of horses that take to dirt after running on poly come up with some big numbers. His post isn't good but Ramon sure knows his way around this track and will probably work a trip if dirt doesn't prove to be a problem.

I remember Street Life was catching some money in the Wood but couldn't gain on the leaders but I don't see a Gemologist or Alpha in here. Lumber Guy came out of that race to win the Jerome so maybe it was a better race than it looked.

Hakama had a ton of trouble in the ILL Derby and closed a ton but there wasn't much in that race and it was on the slow side. Might have a chance with JR in the saddle.

1- Summer Front

2- Mark Valeski

3- Lumber Guy

4- Street Life

Pedigree long shot- Good Morning Diva

Out of the clouds- Hakama

Good Luck,
Backstretch


RECAP

We weren't too far off and if I hadn't thought that Lumber Guy would get the lead we might have done a lot better. Summer Front didn't get a good trip and also indicated he better stay on the weeds. Street Life put in a decent run and our pedigree long shot got up to make a nice super.

The race actually went pretty much the way it looked with Mark Valeski getting a good stalking trip to catch the leader.

Now for the part that tickles me and that concerns horses racing on the lead. I, along with most others made a mistake in failing to realize that Right To Vote showed really good speed in the Champagne last year against Rags and Alpha as A 2 YR OLD. The horse had to mature in those 7 months and should surely improve his speed ability. Big boo-boo on my part but here is the part that most all pace handicappers and track announcers fail to grasp. A horse can run a 45 1/2 and a 1:09 3/4 and be running very easily, as this horse was doing. At other times a horse can do a 1/2 in 47 and 3/4 in 1:12 and be hard pressed to get that and fold up in the lane.

As handicappers, some seem to think they know how fast or slow a horse should be going but only the horse knows if it's going too fast or too slow.

I'd like to use car racing as an analogy and I know I have one reader who will appreciate this, right Doc? Since I built and raced stock cars off and on for about 30 years I know a little bit about it. I will use NASCAR as an example.

First of all, most everything from engine power to the set-up is dependent upon factors like the ambient air temperature, humidity, wind, track surface, distance of the race and tire compounds. The difference in engine power between these cars is not very drastic but can vary between cars from race to race. Differences in fuel set-up and camshaft configuration will be affected by the fact that cooler air is denser and can carry a heavier fuel and air mixture. According to each cars individual set-up the power can be a little different between them because of atmospheric conditions.

Road racing aside, all tracks have two turns and each turn has an apex that is conducive to the highest possible speed through the turn. If there are 10 tracks there would be 20 different apexes to try to hit. If the car doesn't have the right set-up for a particular turn it wouldn't be able to hit the desired apex and would lose speed through the turn.

So what is a set-up? Every tire has a maximum adhesion factor and the object is to come as close to it as possible without breaking traction and it's a very fine line to walk. The tire breaks loose when the centrifugal
forces overcome the adhesion factor of the tire. This is normally caused by too much weight on that particular tire. Contrary to what a lot of people think, weight doesn't cause a tire to stick to the road in a turn but just the opposite. Of course, in the case of tire rotation or spin, weight on it is an advantage.

Weight on the tire in turns is controlled by spring rates and tire pressures for the most part. When you see the crew taking a turn on the traction bar they are actually adjusting weight. To sum this up because I don't want to write a book here, the car and how well it races is almost totally dependent upon how the tires stick to the track

One might ask, how much difference can there be in asphalt tracks? And the answer might be, plenty. The track surface can be affected by the sub surface, the composition of the asphalt on that track, the temperature of the product when laid down, the type of equipment used to put it down, the configuration of the track, the banking and a whole host of variables.

These track factors apply to horse racing tracks in spades. They are all different in just about every aspect and the horses are even more different. We have horses that weigh between 800 and 1,400 lbs with many different sizes and shapes of hoofs. Wouldn't you assume that a 1,400 lb horse with a small foot would naturally sink deeper than a 900 pound-er with a bigger foot? Some tracks are such that the hoof goes into the track and sinks deeply where other tracks have less cushion and the hoof finds firm footing just below the surface. Just as each week we find that some NASCAR cars have the perfect set-up for the track the others are off the mark in varying degrees, there are horses that by their size and action, have the perfect set-up for a particular track on certain days.

There can be and are situations that fit a horse to a "T" while a different type horse struggles on it. Even though speed handicappers make up track variants to try to judge how much a track is off from par these variants are based on averages. All horses in a race are not average and sometimes a track feels very good to a horse that may be far from average in a lot of aspects but the other horses in the race hate it. A track may suit a horse with a short choppy action while the long striding horse is slipping and sliding beneath the surface. There are many other variables that are too numerous to count in this little space but I'm sure you get my point and will be able to come up with a few of your own.

It is for these reasons that I find it kind of laughable when I hear handicappers talk about the speed or quickness of the pace of a race. A horse may be running very easily and just gliding over the track and rip very quick fractions while others in the race are struggling. At other times the fractions may be slow but no horse seems able to sustain it's speed.

I am interested in speed horses to the extent of where they are positioned most of the time not the fractions they run. Sometimes a track is like a conveyor belt to some front running horses and they can go a long way before getting tired and the same horse may hit a track where he goes a much slower pace but still is not able to carry his speed very far.

Horses with different styles or set-ups require different conditions than others and the situation can be reversed time and time again. Just My Opinion!

Backstretch