Champagne and Breeders Futurity Sat. 10/5/13

Champagne Stakes G1

Before I get into the races I'd just like to say a few words about pedigree handicapping. There seems to be quite a few writers that get into a horse's pedigree after the fact. By that, I mean that after a horse has won a stakes race they tend to tell us that this or that horse in the pedigree won such and such a race at whatever distance and this horse should go on to bigger and better things.

The problem is, unless the horse in question is really inbred it's very difficult to determine who in the pedigree is going to exert the most influence on the foal. Often, there are many different line making up the pedigree and I don't see how it's possible to say which mares or sires are going to have the most say in how good the foal will be.One just has to wait and see what develops.

Just because I don't care much for a horse's pedigree doesn't, in most cases, mean the horse can't be a real good one. However, I have had a lot of success predicting which ones will be good at the Classic distances. It doesn't take a lot of pedigree to be good at the shorter distances.

Sat. 10/5/13  BEL  R10

I'm finding it very hard to get a feel for most of the pedigrees in this race. I do notice an abundance of horses this year with the dam sires being of the RAN line, more than I've seen in a long time. It seems to me to be a toss up as to how good this type will be. The RAN line is very good as the sire line but when the mares are of that line they just don't seem to be able to get the classic distances, like Verrazano and Hansen.

Strong Mandate has a pedigree I like very much. It has a lot in common with Oxbow and he should get the longer distances and this type is also durable.

Honor Code is another with some nice breeding but he came from the clouds to win his only start and I'm not too fond of stone closers but have to wait to see if he does show more speed down the line.

Debt Ceiling has a pedigree that I a little up in the air on. Could go either way so I'll give him a little more time.

Havana has the old Fair Play line as the dam sire and this line has been doing well in recent years but I'm not crazy about the rest of the pedigree.

1- Strong Mandate
2- Honor Code
3- Debt Ceiling
4- Havana
Longshot- Grand Arrival

Breeders Futurity

Sat.  10/5/13  KEE  R8

I like this race much better than the NY race because the pedigrees I like are much longer odds.

Tiznowforamerica has a couple of patterns I really like and should be able to run all day. Post may be a problem if he wants to be up close early but has a very patient jock and may lay back and try to make a run.

Arctic Slope is bred for a distance and had no trouble in his first two starts getting this distance. Looks like the stalking type and may be in position to take this.

Kendall's Boy looks to have the goods to be a good one and picks up Gomez. Has speed and a good post so he should contend.

We Miss Artie has a really nice pedigree except for one factor. I never see these types with the RAN mares in key slots that are able to get the classic distances. This however, is not a classic distance and this kind of breeding is usually very fast up to 1 1/8 so he could very well take this.

1- Tiznowforamerica
2- Arctic Slope
3- Kendall's Boy
4- We Miss Artie

Newsletter #72 - Belmont Recap

Newsletter #72  Sat. 6/8/13

BEL  R11  Belmont Stakes  G1

I guess the question is, with the weather being what it is, are we going to get a replay of the Derby? It seems that would be the case according to what a lot of handicappers are saying.

Personally, I don't think we will for a couple of reasons. One is that Belmont and CD are two entirely different tracks and I don't think a sloppy Belmont will have the effect on speed horses that CD did. Another reason is that, and I suppose I'm really being contrary here, is that I don't feel like the pace is going to be all that fast in this race. The jocks know that they need to have patience with their mounts in order to get the longer distance of this race so they would have to be nuts to get into any kind of speed duel.

The key will probably be whether or not there is any kind of a bias but we won't know this until the race is upon us so there may be a lot of last minute adjustments to be made.

Since I have based almost all my handicapping of these races on the pedigrees I'm not about to jump ship now and will make my selections based on the breeding of these.

As to the pedigrees, here are the ones I like;
Oxbow- He has the pedigree that I have liked the most since day one. Even though he has been severely compromised in a lot of his races he always manages to get involved in the race and is a very tough and game colt. He may not be well suited for this track or this race but I am sticking with him. I think he has a very good post with the main speed inside  and outside so he should have a clear shot at position. This pedigree gets it's power from the dam sire cross of the old Man O' War line brought into the inbred Nearco line. Should get the distance.

Vyjack- I like his pedigree almost as much as Ox and it's really kind of hard to choose between them. He had a bad post in the Derby and was up there near the pace early but that was not the place to be. That was the only bad race this guy has run and to discount him because of it might be a big mistake, especially since he should go off long. This is a horse that usually ran up on the pace until he ran his best race winning the Gotham with a change of tactics coming from way out of it. He does have enough speed to wrangle good position and having a very patient rider up will be dangerous if the track favors closers. One other point concerning his pedigree; I have read numerous experts that say he is not bred to get the distance and I couldn't disagree more. I think the greatest influence in his pedigree is coming from the Princequillo line on his dam side and if that line can't get the distance I don't know who could.

Revolutionary- This is another I like having the Ribot line on the dam side although I like to see a little more inbreeding on the sire side. It is still very nice and any doubts were erased by his performances. I'd like to see him a tad closer to the pace which I think he's capable of.

Overanalyze-  Has a nice cross with the dam sire line of Sword Dancer who's influence says he should handle any distance. The thing this guy lacks is consistency but he may be due for a good race and is dangerous on his best. These type pedigrees say that the horse is capable of waking up at any time.

Frac Daddy- Very much like the one above with the dam sire line of Sword Dance. He just hasn't run to his potential yet and might never but still has a chance of throwing a big one when we least expect it.

Midnight Taboo- I like this pedigree very much but he may need more experience. He has the makings of a real good one but this is a big jump up so may be a little over matched at this point in time.

Orb- Having the Sword Dancer down on the dam side crossed into the Bold Ruler inbreeding of the A.P. Indy line makes for a real classical pedigree. He reeled off 5 in a row including the Derby but his last was not up to par for him. It's possible that, rather than having an excuse in his last, he may be regressing somewhat. He may bounce right back but I want to try to beat him because of the odds.

Freedom Child- As is typical with the MR P mares in key positions in the pedigree, this is a fast horse but I have found that they are distance challenged unless allowed to cruise on the front end. If the track is sloppy and favors speed he could take them a long way but will get hooked somewhere along the line, especially by Oxbow, and I think he will fade in the lane.

Unlimited Budget- A very nicely bred filly but I think she is a little over matched. She is nice but is no Rags To Riches and I don't think the post will help her to get the position she wants.

So, a lot depends on the track condition and any bias that may exist.
1- Oxbow
2- Vyjack
3- Revolutionary
4- Orb
Long Shots- Overanalyze, Frac Daddy, Midnight Taboo
I'm going to play tris and supers with 7 and 11 on top...7/2,5,9,11/2,5,9,11/1,2,3,5,8,9,11....the same bet with the 11 on top....
Good Luck
RECAP

In my opinion the Preakness and Belmont were more proof as to what a fluke race the Derby was. Of the top 3 in the Derby, Orb was the only one around at the finish of the next 2 races and he could only manage a 4th and a 3rd. As I've said, one can't use a race where the top finishers had it handed to them on a silver platter to handicap a future race. Just draw a line through it.

The Belmont was a difficult race to handicap in advance because of the weather conditions. We had no idea if the track was going to be sloppy, muddy or fast until very close to post time. As to my own handicapping, I would never have included Freedom Child except on a sloppy track. He is not bred to get the distance and only wins with an uncontested lead.

I also fell asleep at the wheel because I was going with the horses that were on the pace in the Derby and forgot about Palace Malice in my early handicapping, not to mention that he has a nice pedigree that says distance is no problem for him. Lucky for me I made a last minute move and used him with my top pick Oxbow.

Having 11 straight races without being freshened, combined with all the bad trips he had from bad posts, I think Ox has proved to be the best of this crop. He is one tough dude and is always in the hunt.

We may have a showdown in the Travers later on and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top the rest of the year. My money is on Oxbow.

Backstretch

If interested in subscribing to the newsletter please inquiry by e mail at ...backstretch33@gmail.com

Newsletter #70...The Preakness and Recap

Newsletter #70  Sat. 5/18/13

PIM  R12  The Preakness  G1

Perhaps I'm wrong about this but I am just drawing a line through the KY Derby. Orb is a very nice horse and may be the best of this year's crop but I feel he still must beat some of the others on the square, and the Derby was certainly not the race to prove it to me.

In the Derby, it seems to me that, for the most part, the jocks just played the hand they were dealt and the closers were dealt a hand full of aces. Also, the jocks dropped another notch in my opinion of them as judges of pace or how hard their horse is running, especially JJ and Stevens. I don't fault Smith because his horse evidently ran off with him but one would expect that the others on the horses that want to run close to the pace would have had an inkling that they were going much too fast and just let Palace Malice go by himself until he ran out of gas. In my humble opinion, if JJ and Stevens had not gotten antsy the outcome may have been much different.

In addition to the wicked pace it was evident the track was getting slower as the day went by and was becoming very tiring which was bore out by the slow finish of the race. So, I am going to basically disregard the Derby as to how it pertains to this race and go back to square one.

1- Oxbow
2- Goldencents
3-Orb
4- Departing
Long Shots- Mylute, Will Take Charge

I am betting this race to try and make a score if right in my opinion. I will play the exotics like this;  2,6/1,4,5,7

Good Luck,
Backstretch

Recap

Oxbow finally gets a good post and does his thing. I know that everyone says Stevens stole the race but I don't see it that way. In my 60+ years at this game I must have watched a million races and I have said time and time again, "Only the horses know how fast they are going." Handicappers see the fractions of a race and say they are going too fast or too slow but I have seen tons of races where the leaders go the half in 43 or 44 and just keep on going and on the other hand they may go in 48 or so and quit like dogs. Only the horses know if they are being over extended regardless of what the clock tells us.

In this particular race, if the pace was so slow, why didn't the other speed horses get in the money, especially Goldencents who had a perfect stalking trip. I think it was simply because they couldn't keep up with Oxbow regardless of the so called slow fractions. That track was very deep and tiring and the races were getting slower as the day went on.

If, as with the Derby, one can't see why the race went as it did then there's no way to predict the outcome of following races. The Derby was handed to the closers on a silver platter and none of them may ever find a gift like that again. I've read a lot of comments after the Preakness about how good Oxbow's derby really was considering the circumstances but judging from his 15/1 odds it would seem that there was an awful lot of after the fact judgements. Let's hear all this stuff BEFORE and not after the race

Newsletter #69 KY Derby...Recap

Newsletter #69  Sat. 5/4/13

CD  R    KY Derby

Normally I would be going through the pedigrees of all the entries but since I've already discussed them as the prep races came up I would just be repeating myself. Instead, I thought I would give my opinion about the Derby without actually handicapping but I will give my picks.

Over the past several weeks I have read dozens of articles by turf writers and hundreds of comments by readers. One of the silliest things I've read concerns the word "CAN'T". I can't believe how many people, who claim to know something about horse racing, make statements like this one CAN'T lose or that one CAN'T win, especially in a race like the Derby. I instantly disregard whatever that person has to say because they have, by their very statement, stamped themselves as either stupid or a fool, or both. Anyone who's been around racing for any length of time knows there are no absolutes in racing, period.

In this year's edition there seems to be no clear consensus as when a horse like Big Brown ran and this is as it should be. To use the word "CAN'T when referring to a possible winner or loser is to totally ignore the history of the Derby. So what makes the Derby so difficult?

It's pretty well established that favorites win about a third of all races run and about 85% of all races are won by one of the top four choices in a race. That leaves something like 15% of races being won by horses considered to have little chance. Also, the majority of these races have an average of only 7-8 entries and many with less than that.

In the last 43 yrs the Derby has been won by the favorite nine times! That's only a 20% rate which is well below the average. The big field of 20 horses is certainly one of the reasons why we see so many long shots win because with a big field racing luck plays a big part in the outcome. Another reason is because of the intangibles in racing.

Distance and the dynamics of a race surely enter the picture in a race like the Derby. None of these horses has ever run 1 1/4 miles and most probably never will again. Distance is one of the reasons we look at pedigrees so much because if a horse isn't bred to get the distance, or get it fast enough, it usually doesn't have much of a chance.

As far as the dynamics of a race, one must realize that races are like snowflakes, no two are the same but they are all snowflakes. So what makes up the dynamics of a race and what changes it?

What I call the dynamics of a race is how the horses interact with one another. Horses all have a comfort zone in which they do their best running whether it be on or off the pace. When closers are asked to go too fast early they are out of their zone and when front runners are restrained too much they may sulk or become rank. These things may happen because of the jockey's actions or because of other horses around them. Horses can and will intimidate each other and when this happens the dynamics of a race will change. For instance; horse "A" may intimidate horse "B" which in turn sets it up for horse "C" who ends up winning. This situation happens all the time and the addition or subtraction of another horse or more will change the outcome of a race even though most have raced against each other previously.

There are other intrinsic values that we can't put our finger on that change the dynamics. This is one of the reasons that many times races are run much slower than the abilities of the animals in the race would indicate. Many times we also see a horse win a race in a time we wouldn't think possible because it finds itself in a comfort zone it may never get in again.

I am not about to write a book here but I think you get what I'm driving at although you may disagree with me. This is just my opinion to which I am entitled because this is my newsletter. Ha! But in all seriousness, this is my opinion of some of the reasons why we, as handicappers, are unable to get beyond that 1/3 marker of picking winners and probably never will.

As to this Derby, the fact of there being 20 horses in it is enough to make us scratch our heads, add to that the fact there is no solid favorite, of course someone will end up as the chalk, and it makes for a very confusing and wide open affair. If I liked a horse in this race, for whatever reason, I would not be afraid to bet it because I think that almost any of them has a shot at winning.

There are many different directions we can go to try to turn up the winner but, as always, I will base my picks on the pedigrees. This is a tough way to go this year because most of these actually have classic type breeding and distance shouldn't be a problem. How the race unfolds and racing luck will more than likely determine the winner.

Despite there being an abundance of really nice pedigrees in this race there are a few that I like more than others. There are a couple, Normandy Invasion and Verrazano, who have pedigrees with RAN mares in the key slots in their pedigrees and I can't recall a horse with this type pedigree ever scoring at the Derby distance. Verrazano does have ND mares in the other key positions which may cancel out the effects of the RAN mares but that remains to be seen.

Oxbow is my first pedigree choice and in addition, he has a few other things going for him. He's never really run a bad race since stretching out to two turns. Up to his last race his speed figures improved from race to race despite having really bad luck with the draw. In 4 out of his last 5 races he's had the extreme outside post and in 3 of those races he was gunned to the first turn where he went very wide and continued his run to go up with the leaders. Having settled, he was then asked for another move, which in each case looked to be premature and he gained the lead between calls in the stretch but hung which I attribute to his early efforts. In his last, he broke slow and was taken back to dead last, didn't like the dirt in his face so Gary took him wide. He showed he was willing to come off the pace by making a long wide run and was only beaten a length for second.

Tho seldom mentioned as such, he is one of the speedier colts in here. He goes from the 2 hole in this and the other speed is way outside of him so with a good break he should have no problem getting nice position with a ground saving trip on the rail. There's even a chance he may grab the lead but after his last I would think Gary wants a stalking position and if not asked too soon his move to the top may be enough.

Revolutionary is another with my favorite type of breeding. I think he may have a little more speed than given credit for and if Calvin can get him to mid pack and the rail he has a good shot of taking home all the marbles.

I love the pedigree of Lines of Battle and distance shouldn't be a question because he's won at a distance farther than any of these have ever run.He has enough speed to get position not too far back and also gets lasix for the first time. The knock I have against him is that O' Brien takes his horses off the plane and shoots them right into the race without a work over the track. He hasn't had any luck doing this but sooner or later one of them will make a good showing. His horses are just so good and he is such a good trainer that he can't be kept down forever.

Vyjack also has a super nice pedigree but his owner, who's been one very lucky guy, may have run out of luck with the draw of the 20 hole. Actually has a little speed and will have to use it to get into this but could get a minor piece. His breeding tells me he can get the distance but the far outside post turns me off.

It's my opinion that this race will be won by a horse that runs close to or on the pace. There's only been one quality speed horse that I can recall in the past several years and that was Bode last year. I don't think we will see any horse come out of the clouds to win this because there are too many speedier types that can get the distance and I also don't think they will all get burned out in a speed duel up front. Of all the speed horses I think Goldencents will be the horse to beat but I'm going for the whole ball of wax and demanding really good odds in this race.

1- Oxbow
2- Revolutionary
3- Lines of Battle
4- Vyjack

RECAP

This is not to say that Orb wasn't the best horse in the race and I'm glad to see his trainer and owners get a very deserving win.

What I do want to say is this Derby is a perfect example of what happens when horses are taken out of their comfort zone. When Palace Malice went gunning for the lead and then couldn't be slowed down it took all the speed horses off their game. Something like that insane pace totally changed the dynamics of the race. The only horses that stayed within their comfort zone were the closers. And, I was totally wrong about the speed business. Who would have thought Mike Smith would do what he did but maybe it wasn't his fault but the fault of putting blinkers on the horse for the first time. Who knows, maybe Pletcher wanted a rabbit but it sure wasn't fair to the owners of the horse.

Even Gary on Oxbow and JJ on Normandy Invasion made premature moves and flattened out. Don't let a crazy race like this one throw you off your handicapping game because if these horses, or most of them, meet each other again, like in the Preakness, there will probably be a totally different outcome.

As I've said, when horses are forced out of their comfort zone they seldom run a good race.
Backstretch

Newsletter #64 Recap

Newsletter  #64  Sat. 3/30/13

GP  R12  The FLA Derby  G1

I have a feeling that some trainers are going to have regrets about the route they have taken to the Derby. We have a few in this race that are on an all or nothing course. There is only 5 weeks to the Derby and I suppose, rather than come back and run 2 races in five weeks, those that don't make it with this race will point to the Preakness.

Shanghai Bobby has only been beaten once but I don't see any of the horses he's beaten being in the Derby picture. His pedigree tells me he can't get the Derby distance anyway because I've yet to see a horse with those RAN mares in the key positions win a Derby. In addition, I don't like the 2 month lay off he's had. He is very fast but unless he is rated I don't think he will be up to this job.

Itsmyluckyday has a nice pedigree and has run 2 very fast races in a row. I like this guy but a problem I have with him is the time between races. I think he was in top form for his last two and these races were only 2 and 3 weeks apart and now he's off for 8 weeks. The question with him is the same as with Bobby, are they going to be in top form off these extended lay offs?

Orb has a nice out crossed pedigree, has shown he can handle a distance and is just coming into peak form. He's won his last 2 after getting lasix for the first time, has shown he can handle a slow or fast pace and has JR in the irons.

Indy's Illusion was beaten by Orb in his next to last and both he and Orb showed big improvement off that race. He also looks to be coming to hand and another improved race should put him right in the thick of things. He also has a pedigree that says he should have no trouble with distance.

Are You Kidding Me is well bred but as usual, the question is, will he like dirt? He didn't run badly in that Breeder's Fut. race and a few of those in that race came back to run good races on the dirt so I have to give this one a long chance in here.

1- Orb
2- Itsmyluckyday
3- Indy's Illusion
4- Shanghai Bobby
Long Shot- Are You Kidding Me

FG  R9  LA Derby  G2

This one looks to be a real head banger. One fact that stands out is that 5 of the last 6 winners of this race have come out of the Risen Star race including the last 3 since the distance was changed to 1 1/8. It's hard to go against that trend and Oxbow, who was beaten in the Risen Star, came back to lose by a neck in the Rebel. This past one was a funny kind of race that was won by a huge long shot. It looked like there was the early race, then a middle race and then the finish when the winner came from way out of it. It makes it kind of hard to judge which one out of that race figures to run good today.

There are also several in here that didn't come out of that race and one of them is Revolutionary who may be the favorite. He's trained by Pletcher and with the new point system he is being forced to do something he doesn't like to do and that is to run his good ones against each other. So far, with all those good 2 yr olds he has, only one of them has enough points so far to make the Derby. Maybe that one is just so good that Pletcher hasn't managed to screw him up.

Of the horses coming out of the Risen Star I find it tough to separate Code West and Palace Malice although any of them are possible winners in this.

I'm really going to go out on a limb in this race because I'm going to go strictly by pedigree.

Ground Transport has an unusual pedigree having an out cross with the dam sire line going all the way back to Eclipse. Sired by Big Brown, who is inbred to Northern Dancer, this might be a great cross. I may just be hoping against hope because a few years ago I had predicted, on some forum, that our next TC winner would be sired by Big Brown. The post position may really hurt here but he does seem to have a little speed and might work a trip. He's been throwing bullets in his last 3 works at this track and has won his last 2 here. He needs some luck from this post.

Revolutionary has a beautiful pedigree and would be my top choice except that both his wins were on the inner track at AQU, although he did have a very rough trip in his last and came from way out of it, which is hard to do at that track. Now I've gone against the trend with two horses.

Code West pressed the pace in the Risen Star, was passed in the stretch and came again at the end to edge Oxbow and Palace Malice, both of whom bid for the lead and couldn't sustain it. I'm up in the air with his pedigree because of a lot of mix in it but it could go either way.

Palace Malice, nicely bred as with most of Pletcher's horses, should improve off his last and is a definite threat to take it all. Even though Rosie is a good jock, I think Prado, who is riding better now than in the past few years, will help this one. Sitting on a big race with a good post and Prado up may be all he needs.

Departing is a real nice one but again, one with those RAN mares that may limit his distance ability. This is not the Derby distance so it wouldn't be a big surprise if he were to win this. He scratched out of the Risen Star because of a bad post and went down to TX and blew them away. Also, he runs well off the pace which is something those with his type pedigree don't usually do.

Long shot bombs are not unusual at this track so don't be afraid to dig a little deeper for the exotics. I'm going to try to upset the whole apple cart.

1- Ground Transport
2- Revolutionary
3- Code West
4- Palace Malice
Long shots- Departing and Golden Soul
RECAP

I got the first two under the wire in the FLA Derby and was impressed with Orb's race. It seemed to be a slow pace for that track which is usually speed favoring so I don't know if they did something with the track or the leaders were really going that slow. I thought the lay off would hurt Itsmyluckyday since his best races came with a lot less time between races. He'll have 5 weeks till the Derby so he may be sharper for that. I didn't think Bobby would run well and he's not Derby material anyway.

I took a shot in the LA Derby with a bomb who didn't run all that bad. He made a couple moves and I think the run to the first turn from that bad post took something out of him. He made a bid into the stretch and got up close but couldn't sustain his bid. Being that was only his 4th race, I think we will hear from him in the near future. Revolutionary lived up to his pedigree to run them down and showed he can run somewhere other than NY.

My two long shots ran well to get 3rd and 4th and Golden Soul was really long odds. There is a chance that one of these may try one of the last races before the Derby to try to get in.

I'm going to list my Derby horses now and the list is according to how I rate their pedigrees. Actually, as I've mentioned several times this year, there are an awful lot of horses with pedigrees that say they can get the 1 1/4 or more so I would think that any horse getting into the Derby is qualified to win it. I think your going to see some sharp well bred horses going off at 10/1 and longer. With this new point system I think most of the Derby field will have run sharp, in the money races this year.

My Derby Pedigrees

They are not listed in any particular order other than the ratings I gave to their pedigrees. I rated them like a report card.

Lines Of Battle- A+...he's in if he comes here
Oxbow- A+....needs to get in the money in AK Derby
Rydilluc- A+...been grassing...must win the Blue Grass if going to the Derby
Vyjack- A+....is in
Itsmyluckyday- A...should be in
Orb- A...the leader now
Uncaptured- A...needs to get in the money in Blue Grass to make it.
Flashback- B+...got to get in the money in SA Derby
Goldencents- B...needs good finish in SA Derby
Verrazano- B...Not sure but I think he's over rated
Hear The Ghost- B...hard to judge unusual pedigree
Mylute- B

These are the horses that have the pedigrees I like best right now. There may be a few more show up by Derby time.
Backstretch

Newsletter #62 Recap

Newsletter #62  Sat. 3/16/13

OP  R10  The Rebel  G2

Looks like another nice full field with lots of horses in good form. I just hope it's a nice clean race with no trouble.

Oxbow is still my number one pedigree of the year but he gets another bad post. If it hadn't been for ; bad post positions, running hard and wide early and two misjudged premature moves he could have won his last four in a row. I had commented somewhere on line that I thought Lukas should get another jock to ride the Ox, somebody like Mike Smith and lo and behold, Mike gets the mount. If he can get good position just off the pace without getting used up early I think he will take this.

Super Ninety looks to be a real nice one and has a nice pedigree, not great, but good enough. I am always leery of horses that get away on the lead as he did last time, especially in the slop. He did beat Code West in his next to last and that one came back to run big in the Risen Star. I would like to dismiss Ninety Nine but there are too many ifs with him so must leave him in, especially the way Baffert wins at this track.

Delhomme is another I'd like to throw out but am too undecided about him. He is nicely bred, as with most of Pletcher's horses. but the question is, will he rate. He tried to take them all the way last time and tired and the two that beat him came back to run lousy races next time, although there were excuses made for both. I'm putting him in but he is very vulnerable.

Den's Legacy has been very steady and is usually a little short with his closing bids. This race has enough speed in it to cook some of them so he has a chance at a minor prize.

Treasury Bill also has a nice pedigree and with his stable mate full of speed and maybe acting as a rabbit, he will probably try to lay back and come at the end. Don't know if he's good enough but Talamo makes the trip to ride so they must feel pretty good about his chances.

Carve is one that Asmussen claimed out of a winning race and came right back to win his next. Has a nice pedigree and looks like he wants more distance. This might be the claim of the year if he keeps getting better.

I suppose the key to this race is what happens with all that speed on the outside. Delhomme, with his good speed and nice post should be where he wants to be and may have a little advantage . I think Title Contender will be gunning early along with Ninety Nine and Ox so there's a chance that the rest may be kind of squeezed going into the first turn. I really think the most important factor will be, what kind of spot Smith can work out with Ox.

1- Oxbow
2- Delhomme
3- Super Ninety Nine
4- Treasury Bill
Long Shots- Carve and Den's Legacy

RECAP

It was a very strange day at OP. There were 6 sprint races which are one turn races and 5 routes around two turns. In all the sprints the winner was either on the lead or close to the pace. In all the 2 turn races the winner came from the back of the pack. So what was going on around that first turn? Were they running through sand dunes or what?

Once again, Oxbow moved too soon and couldn't hold on at the end. Mike Smith said he didn't want to move that early but was forced to. Why, I don't know, because he had good position laying fourth or fifth but moved before the 1/4 pole. I am going to look at this race as an oddity in the future. I think Oxbow ran what could have been a winning race once again and I also think he is actually getting better with each race and will still be a major factor going forward.

All the front runners in the Rebel and all the other routes on the card ran into a brick wall so I think there was something strange going on. I wouldn't discount some of these speed horses in future races.
Backstretch

Newsletter #61 Recap

Newsletter  #61  Sat. 3/9/13

I have been pedigree handicapping for a lot of years and although it's not a precise method of handicapping, I rely on pedigrees to tell me which horses should be able to get the distance of the TC races. In most years, when handicapping one of the prep races, there were only a couple of horses in each race that seemed to have a pedigree with the potential to get the longer distances. This year however, I have never seen so many horses with really good pedigrees.

Even if all the horses on the TC trail had exactly the same pedigrees, some would be better than others, they can't all be equal. A lot depends on the ability of the trainer and other factors that may decide which ones run their best on any particular day. So naturally, I will be wrong a lot more than I'm right, as it is with all handicapping. I just try to be right enough times on some horses that may be over looked or be able to eliminate some short odds horses that can't get the distance.

TAM  R10  The Tampa Bay Derby  G2

This is a race where I can't really eliminate any one of them at this distance but will try to stay with those I think can get the Derby distance which is tough because they all have such nice breeding.

Verrazano will no doubt be the favorite because he seems to be freakishly fast. Many times a horse will blow them away on the front end and record a very high speed figure but I've never been able to understand how this happens because many times they are never able to do it again unless they happen to get a set of circumstances exactly the same. His pedigree, because of the placement of some particular mares, could go either way. He may have distance limitations or may not but at this distance he should have no problems if he's the real deal. Hard to go against him at this time.

Falling Sky has a super nice inbred pedigree and I don't think this distance is a factor but the post position is. I have the feeling this horse will rate off the pace a little and if he can get decent position he has a good chance. Although it looks like he was getting tired at the end of his last, Dynamic Sky never did get past him, not even on the gallop out. If he tries for the lead and is forced wide on the turn he could be in trouble.

Dynamic Sky has some nice races and with Joel in the saddle should move up. Joel has been riding all over the country and does great wherever he rides and is on a roll. If someone takes the starch out of the top 2 he stands a good chance. Also looks to be sitting on ready.

Park City is another Pletcher well bred colt who is 2 for 2 and could make some noise in here. Prado looks like he's getting back to his form of yesteryear and could bring this one from out of the clouds.

I like the pedigree of Purple Egg and his unbeaten record is nothing to sneeze at. The reason I don't have him contending is that he's had some kind of ailment and scratched out of a couple races. He also hasn't worked in a couple of weeks but who knows, he may be ready.

Java's War has shown some good signs on the turf and the poly but his one race on dirt wasn't so hot although he had a bad start in that race. That KJC race was on the slow side but I recall another horse that came out of that race who also had trouble trying to close on that slow pace and came back with a good race.

If the chalk doesn't win this we could see some nice numbers light up the tote. There are others in here that deserve mention, in fact, I don't think winning this is beyond the scope of any of them. Just have to make a stand somewhere.

1- Verrazano
2- Falling Sky
3- Dynamic Sky
4- Park City
Long Shot- Java's War

SA  R7  The San Felipe  G2

The west coast gang doesn't look as strong this year as in prior years. As usual, Baffert has a few that look good but are as yet unproven against stakes company. On paper this looks to be a 2 horse race but one never knows with these youngsters. Only 8 entered so this doesn't look to be a defining race but we will be on the lookout for a better field in the SA Derby.

Goldencents has a pedigree that could carry him a long way this year. His only defeat was a second against the top 2 year old of last year, Shanghai Bobby. He has a lot of speed but also showed he could rate a little in his last when he tracked a speed ball and took over to draw away. He could take the lead if he gets it easy enough or he might track Flashback. Either way, he doesn't figure to be very far off the pace.

Flashback is one of Bafferts better bred 3 yr olds this year and has had no trouble in his only two races. He led all the way in his last to win by a big margin but he also set a pretty soft pace so we will find out today how he stands up under pressure which he's sure to get from Goldencents.

Hollendorfer has another decent one this year in Hear the Ghost but his contenders are usually just a cut below the best. This one has kind of an unusual pedigree with 2 mares being of the old Man O' War line and I almost never see something like that. His pedigree tells me he should be able to run all day so we will see what the stretch out does to help him.

Kochees is another with nice papers and tried chasing the highly regarded Super Ninety Nine in his last. He could show some improvement here and get a piece of the action.

Omega Star is a nicely bred CA horse and will get a big test today. I don't think he can handle the likes of the top two but may hang in for a minor award.

1- Goldencents
2- Flashback
3- Hear the Ghost
4- Kochees
Long Shot- Omega Star

RECAP

Verrazano looked good winning this but on the other hand it seemed to me to be a pretty slow pace. In addition, aside from Falling Sky, it looked to be a pretty weak field. Verrazano is a very nice colt but I still think his pedigree could go either way as far as distance is concerned. It takes a different kind of horse to get the Derby distance.

This race was also a little more proof that the KJC race was very odd with that slow time recorded. Java's War is another horse that came out of that race and ran big so I'm wondering how good Uncaptured will do in his next couple of races. I do think that this was a weak field and want to see what Verrazano does against some of the better colts.

Out in CA the San Felipe turned into a speed duel and I kind of think this was due to the long lay off by Goldencents who was just too fresh. I saw a lot of talk about how the jocks screwed up on Flashback and Goldencents but it looked to me like they couldn't hold those two horses back. They set a pretty wicked pace and set it up for a closer but the pedigree of Hear the Ghost, the winner, told me he should run all day and I think he is one of those types that will relish the 1 1/4 of the Derby.

It will probably be the last races of the preps, when the leading contenders finally tangle, before we really get an idea of who can do what. I think the Rebel next week will have a more evenly matched group and something good will show up there.
Backstretch

PS- Anyone interested in subscribing to my newsletter and getting in on some of these winners before the races are run can send me an e mail for details.