Newsletter #69 KY Derby...Recap

Newsletter #69  Sat. 5/4/13

CD  R    KY Derby

Normally I would be going through the pedigrees of all the entries but since I've already discussed them as the prep races came up I would just be repeating myself. Instead, I thought I would give my opinion about the Derby without actually handicapping but I will give my picks.

Over the past several weeks I have read dozens of articles by turf writers and hundreds of comments by readers. One of the silliest things I've read concerns the word "CAN'T". I can't believe how many people, who claim to know something about horse racing, make statements like this one CAN'T lose or that one CAN'T win, especially in a race like the Derby. I instantly disregard whatever that person has to say because they have, by their very statement, stamped themselves as either stupid or a fool, or both. Anyone who's been around racing for any length of time knows there are no absolutes in racing, period.

In this year's edition there seems to be no clear consensus as when a horse like Big Brown ran and this is as it should be. To use the word "CAN'T when referring to a possible winner or loser is to totally ignore the history of the Derby. So what makes the Derby so difficult?

It's pretty well established that favorites win about a third of all races run and about 85% of all races are won by one of the top four choices in a race. That leaves something like 15% of races being won by horses considered to have little chance. Also, the majority of these races have an average of only 7-8 entries and many with less than that.

In the last 43 yrs the Derby has been won by the favorite nine times! That's only a 20% rate which is well below the average. The big field of 20 horses is certainly one of the reasons why we see so many long shots win because with a big field racing luck plays a big part in the outcome. Another reason is because of the intangibles in racing.

Distance and the dynamics of a race surely enter the picture in a race like the Derby. None of these horses has ever run 1 1/4 miles and most probably never will again. Distance is one of the reasons we look at pedigrees so much because if a horse isn't bred to get the distance, or get it fast enough, it usually doesn't have much of a chance.

As far as the dynamics of a race, one must realize that races are like snowflakes, no two are the same but they are all snowflakes. So what makes up the dynamics of a race and what changes it?

What I call the dynamics of a race is how the horses interact with one another. Horses all have a comfort zone in which they do their best running whether it be on or off the pace. When closers are asked to go too fast early they are out of their zone and when front runners are restrained too much they may sulk or become rank. These things may happen because of the jockey's actions or because of other horses around them. Horses can and will intimidate each other and when this happens the dynamics of a race will change. For instance; horse "A" may intimidate horse "B" which in turn sets it up for horse "C" who ends up winning. This situation happens all the time and the addition or subtraction of another horse or more will change the outcome of a race even though most have raced against each other previously.

There are other intrinsic values that we can't put our finger on that change the dynamics. This is one of the reasons that many times races are run much slower than the abilities of the animals in the race would indicate. Many times we also see a horse win a race in a time we wouldn't think possible because it finds itself in a comfort zone it may never get in again.

I am not about to write a book here but I think you get what I'm driving at although you may disagree with me. This is just my opinion to which I am entitled because this is my newsletter. Ha! But in all seriousness, this is my opinion of some of the reasons why we, as handicappers, are unable to get beyond that 1/3 marker of picking winners and probably never will.

As to this Derby, the fact of there being 20 horses in it is enough to make us scratch our heads, add to that the fact there is no solid favorite, of course someone will end up as the chalk, and it makes for a very confusing and wide open affair. If I liked a horse in this race, for whatever reason, I would not be afraid to bet it because I think that almost any of them has a shot at winning.

There are many different directions we can go to try to turn up the winner but, as always, I will base my picks on the pedigrees. This is a tough way to go this year because most of these actually have classic type breeding and distance shouldn't be a problem. How the race unfolds and racing luck will more than likely determine the winner.

Despite there being an abundance of really nice pedigrees in this race there are a few that I like more than others. There are a couple, Normandy Invasion and Verrazano, who have pedigrees with RAN mares in the key slots in their pedigrees and I can't recall a horse with this type pedigree ever scoring at the Derby distance. Verrazano does have ND mares in the other key positions which may cancel out the effects of the RAN mares but that remains to be seen.

Oxbow is my first pedigree choice and in addition, he has a few other things going for him. He's never really run a bad race since stretching out to two turns. Up to his last race his speed figures improved from race to race despite having really bad luck with the draw. In 4 out of his last 5 races he's had the extreme outside post and in 3 of those races he was gunned to the first turn where he went very wide and continued his run to go up with the leaders. Having settled, he was then asked for another move, which in each case looked to be premature and he gained the lead between calls in the stretch but hung which I attribute to his early efforts. In his last, he broke slow and was taken back to dead last, didn't like the dirt in his face so Gary took him wide. He showed he was willing to come off the pace by making a long wide run and was only beaten a length for second.

Tho seldom mentioned as such, he is one of the speedier colts in here. He goes from the 2 hole in this and the other speed is way outside of him so with a good break he should have no problem getting nice position with a ground saving trip on the rail. There's even a chance he may grab the lead but after his last I would think Gary wants a stalking position and if not asked too soon his move to the top may be enough.

Revolutionary is another with my favorite type of breeding. I think he may have a little more speed than given credit for and if Calvin can get him to mid pack and the rail he has a good shot of taking home all the marbles.

I love the pedigree of Lines of Battle and distance shouldn't be a question because he's won at a distance farther than any of these have ever run.He has enough speed to get position not too far back and also gets lasix for the first time. The knock I have against him is that O' Brien takes his horses off the plane and shoots them right into the race without a work over the track. He hasn't had any luck doing this but sooner or later one of them will make a good showing. His horses are just so good and he is such a good trainer that he can't be kept down forever.

Vyjack also has a super nice pedigree but his owner, who's been one very lucky guy, may have run out of luck with the draw of the 20 hole. Actually has a little speed and will have to use it to get into this but could get a minor piece. His breeding tells me he can get the distance but the far outside post turns me off.

It's my opinion that this race will be won by a horse that runs close to or on the pace. There's only been one quality speed horse that I can recall in the past several years and that was Bode last year. I don't think we will see any horse come out of the clouds to win this because there are too many speedier types that can get the distance and I also don't think they will all get burned out in a speed duel up front. Of all the speed horses I think Goldencents will be the horse to beat but I'm going for the whole ball of wax and demanding really good odds in this race.

1- Oxbow
2- Revolutionary
3- Lines of Battle
4- Vyjack

RECAP

This is not to say that Orb wasn't the best horse in the race and I'm glad to see his trainer and owners get a very deserving win.

What I do want to say is this Derby is a perfect example of what happens when horses are taken out of their comfort zone. When Palace Malice went gunning for the lead and then couldn't be slowed down it took all the speed horses off their game. Something like that insane pace totally changed the dynamics of the race. The only horses that stayed within their comfort zone were the closers. And, I was totally wrong about the speed business. Who would have thought Mike Smith would do what he did but maybe it wasn't his fault but the fault of putting blinkers on the horse for the first time. Who knows, maybe Pletcher wanted a rabbit but it sure wasn't fair to the owners of the horse.

Even Gary on Oxbow and JJ on Normandy Invasion made premature moves and flattened out. Don't let a crazy race like this one throw you off your handicapping game because if these horses, or most of them, meet each other again, like in the Preakness, there will probably be a totally different outcome.

As I've said, when horses are forced out of their comfort zone they seldom run a good race.
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