Newsletter #64 Recap

Newsletter  #64  Sat. 3/30/13

GP  R12  The FLA Derby  G1

I have a feeling that some trainers are going to have regrets about the route they have taken to the Derby. We have a few in this race that are on an all or nothing course. There is only 5 weeks to the Derby and I suppose, rather than come back and run 2 races in five weeks, those that don't make it with this race will point to the Preakness.

Shanghai Bobby has only been beaten once but I don't see any of the horses he's beaten being in the Derby picture. His pedigree tells me he can't get the Derby distance anyway because I've yet to see a horse with those RAN mares in the key positions win a Derby. In addition, I don't like the 2 month lay off he's had. He is very fast but unless he is rated I don't think he will be up to this job.

Itsmyluckyday has a nice pedigree and has run 2 very fast races in a row. I like this guy but a problem I have with him is the time between races. I think he was in top form for his last two and these races were only 2 and 3 weeks apart and now he's off for 8 weeks. The question with him is the same as with Bobby, are they going to be in top form off these extended lay offs?

Orb has a nice out crossed pedigree, has shown he can handle a distance and is just coming into peak form. He's won his last 2 after getting lasix for the first time, has shown he can handle a slow or fast pace and has JR in the irons.

Indy's Illusion was beaten by Orb in his next to last and both he and Orb showed big improvement off that race. He also looks to be coming to hand and another improved race should put him right in the thick of things. He also has a pedigree that says he should have no trouble with distance.

Are You Kidding Me is well bred but as usual, the question is, will he like dirt? He didn't run badly in that Breeder's Fut. race and a few of those in that race came back to run good races on the dirt so I have to give this one a long chance in here.

1- Orb
2- Itsmyluckyday
3- Indy's Illusion
4- Shanghai Bobby
Long Shot- Are You Kidding Me

FG  R9  LA Derby  G2

This one looks to be a real head banger. One fact that stands out is that 5 of the last 6 winners of this race have come out of the Risen Star race including the last 3 since the distance was changed to 1 1/8. It's hard to go against that trend and Oxbow, who was beaten in the Risen Star, came back to lose by a neck in the Rebel. This past one was a funny kind of race that was won by a huge long shot. It looked like there was the early race, then a middle race and then the finish when the winner came from way out of it. It makes it kind of hard to judge which one out of that race figures to run good today.

There are also several in here that didn't come out of that race and one of them is Revolutionary who may be the favorite. He's trained by Pletcher and with the new point system he is being forced to do something he doesn't like to do and that is to run his good ones against each other. So far, with all those good 2 yr olds he has, only one of them has enough points so far to make the Derby. Maybe that one is just so good that Pletcher hasn't managed to screw him up.

Of the horses coming out of the Risen Star I find it tough to separate Code West and Palace Malice although any of them are possible winners in this.

I'm really going to go out on a limb in this race because I'm going to go strictly by pedigree.

Ground Transport has an unusual pedigree having an out cross with the dam sire line going all the way back to Eclipse. Sired by Big Brown, who is inbred to Northern Dancer, this might be a great cross. I may just be hoping against hope because a few years ago I had predicted, on some forum, that our next TC winner would be sired by Big Brown. The post position may really hurt here but he does seem to have a little speed and might work a trip. He's been throwing bullets in his last 3 works at this track and has won his last 2 here. He needs some luck from this post.

Revolutionary has a beautiful pedigree and would be my top choice except that both his wins were on the inner track at AQU, although he did have a very rough trip in his last and came from way out of it, which is hard to do at that track. Now I've gone against the trend with two horses.

Code West pressed the pace in the Risen Star, was passed in the stretch and came again at the end to edge Oxbow and Palace Malice, both of whom bid for the lead and couldn't sustain it. I'm up in the air with his pedigree because of a lot of mix in it but it could go either way.

Palace Malice, nicely bred as with most of Pletcher's horses, should improve off his last and is a definite threat to take it all. Even though Rosie is a good jock, I think Prado, who is riding better now than in the past few years, will help this one. Sitting on a big race with a good post and Prado up may be all he needs.

Departing is a real nice one but again, one with those RAN mares that may limit his distance ability. This is not the Derby distance so it wouldn't be a big surprise if he were to win this. He scratched out of the Risen Star because of a bad post and went down to TX and blew them away. Also, he runs well off the pace which is something those with his type pedigree don't usually do.

Long shot bombs are not unusual at this track so don't be afraid to dig a little deeper for the exotics. I'm going to try to upset the whole apple cart.

1- Ground Transport
2- Revolutionary
3- Code West
4- Palace Malice
Long shots- Departing and Golden Soul
RECAP

I got the first two under the wire in the FLA Derby and was impressed with Orb's race. It seemed to be a slow pace for that track which is usually speed favoring so I don't know if they did something with the track or the leaders were really going that slow. I thought the lay off would hurt Itsmyluckyday since his best races came with a lot less time between races. He'll have 5 weeks till the Derby so he may be sharper for that. I didn't think Bobby would run well and he's not Derby material anyway.

I took a shot in the LA Derby with a bomb who didn't run all that bad. He made a couple moves and I think the run to the first turn from that bad post took something out of him. He made a bid into the stretch and got up close but couldn't sustain his bid. Being that was only his 4th race, I think we will hear from him in the near future. Revolutionary lived up to his pedigree to run them down and showed he can run somewhere other than NY.

My two long shots ran well to get 3rd and 4th and Golden Soul was really long odds. There is a chance that one of these may try one of the last races before the Derby to try to get in.

I'm going to list my Derby horses now and the list is according to how I rate their pedigrees. Actually, as I've mentioned several times this year, there are an awful lot of horses with pedigrees that say they can get the 1 1/4 or more so I would think that any horse getting into the Derby is qualified to win it. I think your going to see some sharp well bred horses going off at 10/1 and longer. With this new point system I think most of the Derby field will have run sharp, in the money races this year.

My Derby Pedigrees

They are not listed in any particular order other than the ratings I gave to their pedigrees. I rated them like a report card.

Lines Of Battle- A+...he's in if he comes here
Oxbow- A+....needs to get in the money in AK Derby
Rydilluc- A+...been grassing...must win the Blue Grass if going to the Derby
Vyjack- A+....is in
Itsmyluckyday- A...should be in
Orb- A...the leader now
Uncaptured- A...needs to get in the money in Blue Grass to make it.
Flashback- B+...got to get in the money in SA Derby
Goldencents- B...needs good finish in SA Derby
Verrazano- B...Not sure but I think he's over rated
Hear The Ghost- B...hard to judge unusual pedigree
Mylute- B

These are the horses that have the pedigrees I like best right now. There may be a few more show up by Derby time.
Backstretch