Newsletter # 14 Sat. 4/7/12
AQU R9 Sat. 4/7/12 Wood Memorial
I'm really kind of excited about this race. I had mentioned in several places that Gemologist was the horse I liked best early on for the derby. He still needs to run first or second to have enough earnings to make the field on derby day otherwise he will point for the Preakness.
What has me excited is that if my prediction was right about this horse we may see some history made. If this horse should win the KY Derby and possibly the triple crown he could become the highest priced stallion in memory. The reason I say this is that, although he's 8 generations back, he could become the flag bearer for the Man O' War sire line. If he were, with all that he might sire, there could be a resurgence of that line that hasn't happened in a long time
I liked his pedigree right off with the cross of that line with the Nearco line mares. He should have no trouble running all day and he's a big, strong, sturdy looking horse. He has done everything right up to this point including 2 wins around 2 turns at Churchill. Champions usually go about their business, doing nothing wrong and staying healthy in the bargain. So far Gem fits the bill and I'm banking on him to go all the way. Of course, I've been wrong before, I think it was on a Tuesday in 1957. LOL
My Adonis is another that I liked early but he's been a little slow coming around. He had 6 races as a 2yr old but just now seems to be coming into his own. He does have speed enough to find position, although he's gotten caught up in pace duels in the past, and I think that Elvis may have finally figured out where to place him. He is another out cross with Northern Dancer mares and should handle distance if not pushed too hard early.
Alpha is one of 3 horses this year with a big pedigree influence from Mr Prospector mares. The other 2 are Hansen and Reveron although there may be something I missed along the way. There are however, a lot of horses with this type breeding this year but none that I think will make the derby beside these. The problem I have with horses bred along these lines is that they can be brilliant up to 1 1/16 and some to 9f but I can't recall a derby winner with a pedigree of this type. He may be one of those rare exceptions because his damsire is a son of Northern Dancer and 4 of the last 12 derby winners have had a son of ND as the damsire. At any rate, Alpha will probably be a contender in here but I don't think he is in a class with Gem but we may see a good battle for second.
These are the only ones in this race with my derby profile but that doesn't mean others can't be contenders at this distance.
1- Gemologist
2- My Adonis
3- Alpha
4- Tiger Walk.....good closer..draws JR and may get a minor piece.
For my bet I think I'll put Gem on top of the next 2 with all for the exotics.
Recap;
Very exciting race but I don't think it was as close as it appeared to be. Why do I say that? Gem was coming down the stretch with his ears pricked and as Gary Stevens said, "He's just playing!". He was looking around and not keeping his mind on the business at hand. JJ said he was looking around and not really running hard until he saw the other horse and then he dug in and it looked to me that he was starting to inch away at the finish. Ramon, on Alpha, confirmed this when he said he thought he had it but when Gem saw Alpha he got back into it and held him off. Another little point that many may have missed is that coming out of the gate Gem actually broke on top. This horse has a lot of speed but rates nicely so the jock will have a chance to avoid trouble and get a favorable position.
I had posted elsewhere way back in Jan. that this horse would win the Derby and I feel confident that he will. He has a pedigree that I love being an outcrossed horse and I think he can run all day. He has done everything right so far and that's how the great horses are. I think he is coming up to the Derby in a perfect form cycle and we haven't seen his best race yet.
As I have stated, I believe Alpha is a really nice horse up to 1 1/8 but I have doubts about him getting that other 1/8 in the Derby.
PS...Not that it paid very much but I did post my winning bet.
SA Derby:
This race is tough for me because of the form cycles. They seem to treat these horses like they were made of glass, very thin glass. I have a few with pedigrees I like but I have no idea how they will run considering how they are trained. I mean, 7-8 weeks between races? Are they a bunch of cripples?
I'm not in love with the pedigree of Creative Cause but I will have to go with him just because he's so steady. He may not win the KY Derby but it looks like he has an edge in experience and class against these. There are some others that could have run in this race but everyone is looking for an easy spot. As I've said before, the goal seems to be to just get to the big show whether the horse has a chance or not.
I like the pedigree of I'll Have Another and you know I had him in my picks last time when he won but 8 weeks is a long time between races. O'Neill was worried about him bouncing because he ran a good number last time but that number wouldn't have won the Derby. How can a horse improve from one race to another when they go back to square one after each race. I know he ran a good one last time after a lengthy lay off but if he runs that way again it may not be good enough to win this.
Paynter has a beautiful pedigree that I really like but asking a horse, no matter how well he's bred, to go from a win in a maiden sprint to a grade 1 at 9f is a tall order. These horses would be better off in my opinion if they were raced into condition rather than trained up to the race every month or so. A horse gets more out of one race than it does from 5 works. I also think it's more of a risk to give him all those works than to give him a race. Oh, I forgot that the main object is to try to keep him undefeated. Bull Dinky!
Midnight Transfer is nicely bred and would be coming up to the Derby just right if he wins this but I don't think he makes the show without a win. It's going to take 300,000. or more to get in this year me thinks.
This race may actually be up for grabs but you have to call them as you see them. Liaison is not bad and is due to bounce back one of these days. Senor Rain has a Derby type pedigree but just hasn't run to it even though he's had enough chances.
1- Creative Cause
2- I'll Have Another
3- Paynter
4- Midnight Transfer
Recap;
I did out think myself in this race as I have done in the past. I basically handicap these races by pedigree but do include performance, not speed figures, in my handicapping. I sometimes make the mistake of trying to get cute and find some reason to put another horse over my pedigree pick. In this case I thought the long lay off might have I'll Have Another a little short but he wasn't so I should have kept him on top. The race was very close so if the bob had gone the other way I might have thought I'd done the right thing but I didn't.
I don't know how much it hurt him but Paynter got off to a bad start but as I said, he was taking a mighty big jump in class and distance. He didn't run badly though and I think he will be heard from in the future because he has a super pedigree.
Baffert's other horse got that lead and just didn't want to quit. Maybe the track was just speed favoring because nobody but the top 2 made any kind of run.
Illinios Derby:
This is a wide open race and it's like a last ditch stand with everybody trying to get enough earnings. I'm not too fond of him but Our Entourage looks like the one to beat. So far there have been 8 horses that came out of the Breeders Cup race to win one of these preps. That must have been a really key race so I can't buck that trend. This one also got into a murder-suicide pact with Souper Speedy on the front end in the Remsen and was only beaten a length by EL Padrino.
Done talking is another who ran well in the Remsen but really threw a clunker in the Gotham. It was his first start of the year after more than 3 months off so I'll give him a chance to make amends because he has a nice pedigree and Smith is a better trainer than that race shows. Post may really hinder him because he wants to come from well out of it.
The pedigree in here that I like the most is Arm Force but it's doubtful if he gets in the race. He was entered in the LA Derby and scratched. Julian isn't slated to ride either so I don't know what's up with him.
Currency Swap chased Gemologist in his last and comes right back. Probably the easiest spot he will find. He's a nice one but I think he may out of his element at the longer distances.
Pretension is nicely bred and should handle the distance. Comes out of the Gotham where he finished on even terms with Finnegan's Wake who went to the Southland and didn't show much so he will have to improve some.
Skyring and Saturday's Launch both have nice pedigrees and both have won their last. Sat. Launch has only had one dirt race and that was his first start. He has run second to Daddy Nose best who has won 2 preps in a row with his last being in the Southland on dirt. He also has a good race against Exothermic who is undefeated and was only beaten a nose by News Pending. Has a top notch trainer in McPeek who must think he can handle dirt. This is his first try in a graded race this year but I wouldn't be suprised to see him charge down the lane to win this at a huge price. In fact, I'm going to pick him on top and hope to be a whiz kid in this one.
1- Saturday's Launch
2- Our Entourage
3- Arm Force........if he gets in
4- Done Talking
5- Currency Swap
And a really long one for the exotics, Skyring.
I am wondering how Julian is going to make up his mind as to who to ride in the big one. I guess he will stick with Union Rags but he's in a nice spot for a ride.
Recap;
This is the race where I really made a mistake going against my pedigree handicapping. I thought all along that the pedigrees of Currency Swap and Our Entourage said they were distance challenged and they were. I should have dismissed them as I usually do but the fact that there wasn't really many horses in here that had proved much swayed me.
Done Talking is a horse that I had liked early on and had picked him in his last where he didn't run a lick. This may be one of those cases where the jock made the difference. Sheldon had won with this horse and then 2 different jocks were employed in his next races. A return to the boy who had won with him and bingo! Something like Drosslemeyer and Mike Smith. You know the old saying, "Don't fix what ain't broke". At any rate, I like his pedigree although I'm not sure if he can handle the likes of Gem and Rags.
Arm Force has a super nice pedigree and they skipped the LA Derby for this but didn't draw in and was scratched. He may try to jump into one of the remaining preps.
Saturday's Launch, the longshot I put on top, had some questions going to dirt for the first time but ran a good race. He was bumped around quite a bit and was checked coming into the stretch and was only beaten a neck for third less than 3 lengths from the winner so I don't think I really made a bad choice as racing luck played a big part.
I think they learned something about Hakama in that he was usually up front in his races but because of bumping at the start was knocked back but made a great run to get third just edging my top choice.
I wasn't impressed with Morgan's G.s pedigree but hed had a couple nice races and caught a lot of money indicating he was live in this race.
All told, I think this was a rough run race and a few had bad trips. This happens with big fields and this one had 14 runners so imagine what can happen with 20 in the Derby.
Not a bad weekend of picks and we only have a few to go till the big one. The ARK Derby next week should be a really good one and there may be a real sleeper or 2 in it.
Backstretch
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Monday, March 26, 2012
Newsletter # 12 Recap
Newsletter # 12 Sat. 3/24/12
Turfway R10 3/24/12 The Spiral
Is it possible to see a repeat of last year when Animal Kingdom won this and then the derby? I don't think so because in my opinion there is a dearth of nice horses this year compared to last.
I suppose we have got to wonder how some of these will take to the poly because that's always an unknown. I've only got three horses in here that fit my derby profile but a couple of them look very good.
I have Heavy Breathing who I'm going to make my choice for this. Has had 2 races and won both with the last being at this distance. I think he's bred to run all day and has good tactical speed so JJ should be able to put him wherever he likes.
Handsome Mike is a really well bred horse who has been running well but getting beat by being on a fast pace. I think with the switch to Joel they will try to rate him a little. If it weren't for that bad outside post I would probably pick him to win but I think he's going to get used hard to get a striking position unless he goes for the lead again which could be even more trouble.
I'm not crazy about Went The Day Well but Motion won this last year with Animal and looks to have this one coming up to a good race.
I'll round it out with Holiday Promise who has a lot of the same lines as Heavy Breathing. Has shown promise but this is first try against this kind of company. I think he's sitting on a big race and would not be surprised to see Pletcher take both top spots.
1- Heavy Breathing
2- Handsome Mike
3- Went The Day Well
4- Holiday Promise.
Sunland Derby R12 Sun. 3/25/12
There are only three horses in here that have my derby profile and 2 of them just broke their maiden. Isn't He Clever has a very nice pedigree and he has lots of experience. One thing I have noticed is that almost all the preps so far have been won by horses with experience. This guy has won 4 of 6 and was off the board only once and that was against some good ones, especially I'll Have Another, who ran a super good race. Incidently, I think that's the only prep race that a long shot won and he was one of my pedigree horses. If you recall, I had that big exacta in my picks that day.
Ender Knievel and Stirred Up both have nice breeding and fit my derby profile. I like the way Ender blew the field away in his last start but I think the pace was a little slow in that race and he was never challenged.
Stirred Up looks like he is just coming into his own after running a good race against Bodemeister who barely got beat by Creative Cause.
I know there are those that will think I'm crazy for dismissing Castaway but that's just what I'm going to do. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I think he will get beat here. He won the Southwest on the pace but the fractions were on the slow side. I also don't think there was anything in there to beat. A very mediocre field in my opinion.
I feel that Ender is going to be on the motor and the pace will be pretty quick so I feel that someone coming off the pace will take this one. I think Daddy Nose Best has a good shot if he doesn't fall too far off the pace. He beat a couple nice ones in his last but benefited from a super good ride by Julian. I also don't know how he will take to dirt, but of course, he may love it.
I'm really going to go out on a limb and stick with the pedigrees. After all, we did get that 44/1 shot strictly off the pedigree.
1- Isn't He Clever
2- Stirred Up
3- Ender Knievel
4- Daddy Nose Best
Good Luck,
Backstretch
I was a little surprised that Heavy Breathing backed out of it but other than that the others ran well. I thought Mr. Motion had Went The Day Well ready for a big one and he sure did. He really knows how to get them ready this time of year.
I wasn't surprised by the effort of Holiday Promise because I think he is a very well bred colt and probably has a bright future in store.
Handsome Mike is a really nice colt and just can't seem to catch a good trip. He has a lot of speed but has gotten caught up in speed duels in the past and I thought the jockey switch, although I think Nakatani is a very good jock, might get him to rate a little. I was afraid the post would hurt him and he got off to a bad start anyway. Mike is a much better horse than his finishes have shown and sooner or later he's going to pop that big one.
Down at Sunland the hardest decision I had to make was dismissing Castaway. I don't care for his pedigree for the classics and though he may be a nice horse, I don't see him as a G1 colt.
As I thought it would, a speed duel ensued and set it up for the closer. I do feel that Isn't He Clever was used a little hard early and stayed a little close to that quick pace getting the lead in a fast 3/4. His connections have said they may try something like the Bluegrass if he ran a good race so maybe we haven't seen the last of him..
The race set up perfect for Daddy and he got another great ride from Julian. He has a nice style for the Derby and will probably be a major threat there.
I have been criticized by some who say I claim having the winner of these preps when I give 4 horses. That may be true to an extent because sometimes my top pick wins and other times it's one of the others that win.
I think that those who get down on me are missing the point, which is, to place a winning bet. In these type races it really doesn't matter if the winner is pinpointed or not because most players are going for the exotics, at least I know my clients are, and they are the ones I've got to keep happy.
Just by sticking with my pedigree likes I've had a 44/1 winner on top of my first choice, my first choice on top of another 44/1 shot several nice trifectas in addition to the exactas and in the Spiral all 4 of my picks were in the money making for a really nice super.
Seems like I'm able to get those long shots in there just by using their pedigrees although I have also been told I don't know anything about breeding.
So as a few friends, who are good handicappers, always say; the object is to make winning and profitable plays, don't worry about which horse actually wins, because whether you win or not is the only thing that counts. I certainly hope you won this week.
PS...If interested in subscribing to my low cost newsletter please send e mail.
Turfway R10 3/24/12 The Spiral
Is it possible to see a repeat of last year when Animal Kingdom won this and then the derby? I don't think so because in my opinion there is a dearth of nice horses this year compared to last.
I suppose we have got to wonder how some of these will take to the poly because that's always an unknown. I've only got three horses in here that fit my derby profile but a couple of them look very good.
I have Heavy Breathing who I'm going to make my choice for this. Has had 2 races and won both with the last being at this distance. I think he's bred to run all day and has good tactical speed so JJ should be able to put him wherever he likes.
Handsome Mike is a really well bred horse who has been running well but getting beat by being on a fast pace. I think with the switch to Joel they will try to rate him a little. If it weren't for that bad outside post I would probably pick him to win but I think he's going to get used hard to get a striking position unless he goes for the lead again which could be even more trouble.
I'm not crazy about Went The Day Well but Motion won this last year with Animal and looks to have this one coming up to a good race.
I'll round it out with Holiday Promise who has a lot of the same lines as Heavy Breathing. Has shown promise but this is first try against this kind of company. I think he's sitting on a big race and would not be surprised to see Pletcher take both top spots.
1- Heavy Breathing
2- Handsome Mike
3- Went The Day Well
4- Holiday Promise.
Sunland Derby R12 Sun. 3/25/12
There are only three horses in here that have my derby profile and 2 of them just broke their maiden. Isn't He Clever has a very nice pedigree and he has lots of experience. One thing I have noticed is that almost all the preps so far have been won by horses with experience. This guy has won 4 of 6 and was off the board only once and that was against some good ones, especially I'll Have Another, who ran a super good race. Incidently, I think that's the only prep race that a long shot won and he was one of my pedigree horses. If you recall, I had that big exacta in my picks that day.
Ender Knievel and Stirred Up both have nice breeding and fit my derby profile. I like the way Ender blew the field away in his last start but I think the pace was a little slow in that race and he was never challenged.
Stirred Up looks like he is just coming into his own after running a good race against Bodemeister who barely got beat by Creative Cause.
I know there are those that will think I'm crazy for dismissing Castaway but that's just what I'm going to do. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I think he will get beat here. He won the Southwest on the pace but the fractions were on the slow side. I also don't think there was anything in there to beat. A very mediocre field in my opinion.
I feel that Ender is going to be on the motor and the pace will be pretty quick so I feel that someone coming off the pace will take this one. I think Daddy Nose Best has a good shot if he doesn't fall too far off the pace. He beat a couple nice ones in his last but benefited from a super good ride by Julian. I also don't know how he will take to dirt, but of course, he may love it.
I'm really going to go out on a limb and stick with the pedigrees. After all, we did get that 44/1 shot strictly off the pedigree.
1- Isn't He Clever
2- Stirred Up
3- Ender Knievel
4- Daddy Nose Best
Good Luck,
Backstretch
RECAP
I was a little surprised that Heavy Breathing backed out of it but other than that the others ran well. I thought Mr. Motion had Went The Day Well ready for a big one and he sure did. He really knows how to get them ready this time of year.
I wasn't surprised by the effort of Holiday Promise because I think he is a very well bred colt and probably has a bright future in store.
Handsome Mike is a really nice colt and just can't seem to catch a good trip. He has a lot of speed but has gotten caught up in speed duels in the past and I thought the jockey switch, although I think Nakatani is a very good jock, might get him to rate a little. I was afraid the post would hurt him and he got off to a bad start anyway. Mike is a much better horse than his finishes have shown and sooner or later he's going to pop that big one.
Down at Sunland the hardest decision I had to make was dismissing Castaway. I don't care for his pedigree for the classics and though he may be a nice horse, I don't see him as a G1 colt.
As I thought it would, a speed duel ensued and set it up for the closer. I do feel that Isn't He Clever was used a little hard early and stayed a little close to that quick pace getting the lead in a fast 3/4. His connections have said they may try something like the Bluegrass if he ran a good race so maybe we haven't seen the last of him..
The race set up perfect for Daddy and he got another great ride from Julian. He has a nice style for the Derby and will probably be a major threat there.
I have been criticized by some who say I claim having the winner of these preps when I give 4 horses. That may be true to an extent because sometimes my top pick wins and other times it's one of the others that win.
I think that those who get down on me are missing the point, which is, to place a winning bet. In these type races it really doesn't matter if the winner is pinpointed or not because most players are going for the exotics, at least I know my clients are, and they are the ones I've got to keep happy.
Just by sticking with my pedigree likes I've had a 44/1 winner on top of my first choice, my first choice on top of another 44/1 shot several nice trifectas in addition to the exactas and in the Spiral all 4 of my picks were in the money making for a really nice super.
Seems like I'm able to get those long shots in there just by using their pedigrees although I have also been told I don't know anything about breeding.
So as a few friends, who are good handicappers, always say; the object is to make winning and profitable plays, don't worry about which horse actually wins, because whether you win or not is the only thing that counts. I certainly hope you won this week.
PS...If interested in subscribing to my low cost newsletter please send e mail.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
A Tribute To My Internet Friends
A Tribute To My Internet Friends
Yesterday I turned 79 years of age. So far I've had a long and eventful life and done most of the things I've wanted to do. I've traveled a lot and rubbed shoulders with everyone from billionaires to mobsters.
Almost all my old friends are gone now but thanks to the internet I've made some great new ones. I also want to say that I have met some of the nastiest people alive on the internet although I can't believe they could be so rotten in real life. It makes me think that the internet is something like alcohol in that some people are just plain obnoxious drunks and others aren't.
Having said that, I just want to express my appreciation to the people I have met on the net and in particular a couple of guys that are just plain super stand-up guys.
As most of you know I have a little handicapping service and two of these friends are also clients and are wonderful to deal with. They always inquire about my health, which isn't too good these days, and seem to have great faith in my judgement.
One of these friends has been with me for 7-8 yrs now and never goes to the track without my selections for the day. The other is not only a bettor but an owner as well and will buy a horse just on my say so. I can't tell you how good it makes one feel to have someone put their trust in you in a game like horse racing.
They not only reward me with their trust but always take care of me financially. They never bitch or moan when they lose and never lie or short change me in any way. As I said; two really outstanding and stand-up guys who are both successful business men but are quite humble and never arrogant or demeaning. I feel very greatful to have met them and one wish I would have would be to spend some time at the track with all of us together. In my book they are two outstanding individuals who have helped restore my faith in people and I place the highest value possible on their friendship.
There are others I've met online and talk with on the phone and we spend hours talking horses and I also thank them for their friendship and help in keeping my interest alive, otherwise, I would be like many who are retired and become bored and lonely and soon wilt away.
So again, thanks to all my internet friends and I hope we are able to spend many more rewarding years together.
Backstretch
Yesterday I turned 79 years of age. So far I've had a long and eventful life and done most of the things I've wanted to do. I've traveled a lot and rubbed shoulders with everyone from billionaires to mobsters.
Almost all my old friends are gone now but thanks to the internet I've made some great new ones. I also want to say that I have met some of the nastiest people alive on the internet although I can't believe they could be so rotten in real life. It makes me think that the internet is something like alcohol in that some people are just plain obnoxious drunks and others aren't.
Having said that, I just want to express my appreciation to the people I have met on the net and in particular a couple of guys that are just plain super stand-up guys.
As most of you know I have a little handicapping service and two of these friends are also clients and are wonderful to deal with. They always inquire about my health, which isn't too good these days, and seem to have great faith in my judgement.
One of these friends has been with me for 7-8 yrs now and never goes to the track without my selections for the day. The other is not only a bettor but an owner as well and will buy a horse just on my say so. I can't tell you how good it makes one feel to have someone put their trust in you in a game like horse racing.
They not only reward me with their trust but always take care of me financially. They never bitch or moan when they lose and never lie or short change me in any way. As I said; two really outstanding and stand-up guys who are both successful business men but are quite humble and never arrogant or demeaning. I feel very greatful to have met them and one wish I would have would be to spend some time at the track with all of us together. In my book they are two outstanding individuals who have helped restore my faith in people and I place the highest value possible on their friendship.
There are others I've met online and talk with on the phone and we spend hours talking horses and I also thank them for their friendship and help in keeping my interest alive, otherwise, I would be like many who are retired and become bored and lonely and soon wilt away.
So again, thanks to all my internet friends and I hope we are able to spend many more rewarding years together.
Backstretch
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Newsletter # 10 Recap
Newsletter #10 Sat. 3/10/12
GP R10 3/10/12 The Swale
This race is usually full of sprinters but there are a couple in here that I assume are just getting a tune up. One of my derby horses, Motor City, makes his first appearance since winning the Iroquois at CD in Oct. Borel had said this was his derby horse but he is at TAM riding Take Charge Indy.
J. Leparoux is also over at TAM to ride Battle Hardened so I would think this is also a tune up for Ever So Lucky. Cruz has also decided on Golden Ticket at TAM so I guess he thinks that's a better shot than Good Morning Diva.
This is not to say these don't have a chance just because the jocks elect to go to a more important race. In fact, ESL and MC look to be the class of this race. Not all of these are nominated to the derby but there are some real nice pedigrees in here. I am actually amazed at the number of horses this year that would qualify them as derby horses. Last year there were only a dozen or so but there are at least three times that many this year.
If all the horses had derby pedigrees some would have to be better than others so I can't say any particular horse will win simply because it has a great pedigree.
There are five in here that qualify on my derby profile; Trinniberg, Motor City, Bahamian Squall, Seve and Good Morning Diva.Any one of them may win this for a couple of reasons. One reason is that it is a sprint and the other is, as I said, it may only be a tune up for a couple of them.
1- Ever So Lucky...not thinking of him for the derby but seems to be a cut above these right now with that second to Gemologist..how ready is he?
2- Seve...taking a shot here because of his experience and nice pedigree.
3- Motor City...distance may be too short but he should be motoring at the end.
4- Bahamian Squall...lovely breeding...will probably like the distance
Good Morning Diva..I probably should rate him higher at this distance.
Trinniberg...very speedy...surprised at huge odds in the Hopeful but tends to tire...still dangerous
I will look for some value and probably use a couple of the newcomers in the exotics. I feel ESL will be the chalk and I will try to beat him even though he looks best on paper...might be a little short on condition.
TAM R11 3/10/12 Tampa Bay Derby
This should be a competitive race with horses coming from numerous different races. We have some coming off the turf, a couple stretching out and a few that have been factors in graded races already. Should be interesting.
I have 6 in here that fit my derby profile and no standouts on form. I have been looking all year to find a quality front runner that fits my derby profile and have only seen a couple possibles and Spring Hill Farm is one of them. A superb pedigree and has wired the field in both his races so I'm going with him to win. I really hope he's got the right stuff because I'd like to see what Hansen does with a front runner of quality.
Battle Hardened, Cozzetti, Golden Ticket, Prospective and Tell All You Know all fit my derby profile so I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them take it all.
I don't see anyone that looks like it's able to run with SHF early except maybe Cajun Charlie and Tell All You Know. If Spring is able to top it all the way most of them may be far back early but those two may take some of the starch out of Spring Hill early. Another possible scenerio is if JJ can rate Spring early till the leaders quit. Take Charge looks to have enough speed to stay fairly close and has gone the distance a few times. The closers will be trying to catch the top two.
1- Spring Hill Farm
2- Prospective
3- Battle Hardened
4- Cozzetti
SA R9 3/10/12 The San Felipe
I think I'm going to take the same tack here as in the Tampa Derby. As I have said, I am still looking for that quality front runner that can sustain his speed over a distance so I will go with Baffert's horse Bodemeister. He blew them away last time at a mile and his pedigree tells me he can go farther than that.
Another with a pedigree that says he should run all day is Tiz Point. I know he doesn't have much in the way of speed figures but I kind of think he's really bred for dirt and he hasn't tried that yet. He has a second to Stoney Fleece who is a very nice turf horse that won the generous Stakes. Mandella has a very good % when going from turf to dirt and this one has been working nicely at SA. I'm giving him a shot at long odds in addition to the fact that he fits my derby profile. Doesn't hurt that he gets Gomez up either.
I am not crazy about the pedigree of Creative Cause but at this distance he's a serious contender. In fact, I think he will go off as the chalk.
I love the pedigree of Empire Way and he's on my Derby list but I think he wants more distance like the derby distance. I don't think the post is going to help him being that he wants to come off the pace. Jock will have to get lucky to work a good trip. If he doesn't win he's going to have to get some earnings somewhere and I think Harrington is really pointing him to the SA Derby.
Liaison is another with a good pedigree but he doesn't need any earnings so if it should come down to him and Bodemeister I have the feeling Baffert would like to see Bodemeister get the money.
1- Bodemeister
2- Tiz Point
3- Creative Cause
4- Empire Way
5- Liaison
RECAP:
Things didn't quite work out this week. It was a shame that Spring Hill Farm fractured a leg in the TAM Derby. Don't know how he even managed to finish the race.
Prospective, my 2nd choice proved to be very game winning it and may be a force to be dealt with later. He is another that came out of the Breeders Cup to win and I have been thinking that the BC was one of those key races where most of them win their next race. On second thought however, I am more inclined to think that horses like Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause and Prospective have had a big advantage in experience and having had a solid foundation built.
We had the same type situation in the San Felipe with Bodemeister and Creative Cause. Bodemeister looked very good in his first try against graded company but it's asking an awful lot to try to beat a horse like Creative Cause.
We are now left with a bunch of potentially good ones scrambling to get some graded earnings. I think that many of these trainers are putting all their eggs in one basket. Not good!
I don't know if there are other circumstances which cause so many of these derby nominees to get a late start or if it's the mindset of trainers now a days with this business of trying to get to the Derby with only a couple starts but it sure doesn't seem to be working very well.
Which brings me to Pletcher and his strategy: We all know what he did with Uncle Mo last year in trying to keep him undefeated. They came up with that special race just for him and it left him totally unprepared when he met some real competition and I feel he is doing the same thing with Gemologist who has really looked to be his best prospect. Early on he decided to take the same path to the Derby as with Super Saver but has now switched gears. He has entered Gemologist in an allowance race that appeared out of the blue like that race for Uncle mo last year.
Gemologist still needs some earnings to make the Derby but I think Pletcher is trying to keep this horse undefeated as with Mo. One must remember that an undefeated horse is worth a helluva lot more at stud than one that's been beat. I guess he feels he's got a soft spot for a tune-up race. I think he may be heading for the ARK. Derby but this whole scheme may blow up in his face if Gemologist can't win that one. If he had tried the Rebel or the TAM Derby he could have had two shots at graded earnings but I still think he's more concerned with keeping this horse undefeated so is putting all his eggs in one basket. The kicker would be if he gets beat in the allowance race. Talk about egg on your face!
Backstretch
GP R10 3/10/12 The Swale
This race is usually full of sprinters but there are a couple in here that I assume are just getting a tune up. One of my derby horses, Motor City, makes his first appearance since winning the Iroquois at CD in Oct. Borel had said this was his derby horse but he is at TAM riding Take Charge Indy.
J. Leparoux is also over at TAM to ride Battle Hardened so I would think this is also a tune up for Ever So Lucky. Cruz has also decided on Golden Ticket at TAM so I guess he thinks that's a better shot than Good Morning Diva.
This is not to say these don't have a chance just because the jocks elect to go to a more important race. In fact, ESL and MC look to be the class of this race. Not all of these are nominated to the derby but there are some real nice pedigrees in here. I am actually amazed at the number of horses this year that would qualify them as derby horses. Last year there were only a dozen or so but there are at least three times that many this year.
If all the horses had derby pedigrees some would have to be better than others so I can't say any particular horse will win simply because it has a great pedigree.
There are five in here that qualify on my derby profile; Trinniberg, Motor City, Bahamian Squall, Seve and Good Morning Diva.Any one of them may win this for a couple of reasons. One reason is that it is a sprint and the other is, as I said, it may only be a tune up for a couple of them.
1- Ever So Lucky...not thinking of him for the derby but seems to be a cut above these right now with that second to Gemologist..how ready is he?
2- Seve...taking a shot here because of his experience and nice pedigree.
3- Motor City...distance may be too short but he should be motoring at the end.
4- Bahamian Squall...lovely breeding...will probably like the distance
Good Morning Diva..I probably should rate him higher at this distance.
Trinniberg...very speedy...surprised at huge odds in the Hopeful but tends to tire...still dangerous
I will look for some value and probably use a couple of the newcomers in the exotics. I feel ESL will be the chalk and I will try to beat him even though he looks best on paper...might be a little short on condition.
TAM R11 3/10/12 Tampa Bay Derby
This should be a competitive race with horses coming from numerous different races. We have some coming off the turf, a couple stretching out and a few that have been factors in graded races already. Should be interesting.
I have 6 in here that fit my derby profile and no standouts on form. I have been looking all year to find a quality front runner that fits my derby profile and have only seen a couple possibles and Spring Hill Farm is one of them. A superb pedigree and has wired the field in both his races so I'm going with him to win. I really hope he's got the right stuff because I'd like to see what Hansen does with a front runner of quality.
Battle Hardened, Cozzetti, Golden Ticket, Prospective and Tell All You Know all fit my derby profile so I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them take it all.
I don't see anyone that looks like it's able to run with SHF early except maybe Cajun Charlie and Tell All You Know. If Spring is able to top it all the way most of them may be far back early but those two may take some of the starch out of Spring Hill early. Another possible scenerio is if JJ can rate Spring early till the leaders quit. Take Charge looks to have enough speed to stay fairly close and has gone the distance a few times. The closers will be trying to catch the top two.
1- Spring Hill Farm
2- Prospective
3- Battle Hardened
4- Cozzetti
SA R9 3/10/12 The San Felipe
I think I'm going to take the same tack here as in the Tampa Derby. As I have said, I am still looking for that quality front runner that can sustain his speed over a distance so I will go with Baffert's horse Bodemeister. He blew them away last time at a mile and his pedigree tells me he can go farther than that.
Another with a pedigree that says he should run all day is Tiz Point. I know he doesn't have much in the way of speed figures but I kind of think he's really bred for dirt and he hasn't tried that yet. He has a second to Stoney Fleece who is a very nice turf horse that won the generous Stakes. Mandella has a very good % when going from turf to dirt and this one has been working nicely at SA. I'm giving him a shot at long odds in addition to the fact that he fits my derby profile. Doesn't hurt that he gets Gomez up either.
I am not crazy about the pedigree of Creative Cause but at this distance he's a serious contender. In fact, I think he will go off as the chalk.
I love the pedigree of Empire Way and he's on my Derby list but I think he wants more distance like the derby distance. I don't think the post is going to help him being that he wants to come off the pace. Jock will have to get lucky to work a good trip. If he doesn't win he's going to have to get some earnings somewhere and I think Harrington is really pointing him to the SA Derby.
Liaison is another with a good pedigree but he doesn't need any earnings so if it should come down to him and Bodemeister I have the feeling Baffert would like to see Bodemeister get the money.
1- Bodemeister
2- Tiz Point
3- Creative Cause
4- Empire Way
5- Liaison
RECAP:
Things didn't quite work out this week. It was a shame that Spring Hill Farm fractured a leg in the TAM Derby. Don't know how he even managed to finish the race.
Prospective, my 2nd choice proved to be very game winning it and may be a force to be dealt with later. He is another that came out of the Breeders Cup to win and I have been thinking that the BC was one of those key races where most of them win their next race. On second thought however, I am more inclined to think that horses like Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause and Prospective have had a big advantage in experience and having had a solid foundation built.
We had the same type situation in the San Felipe with Bodemeister and Creative Cause. Bodemeister looked very good in his first try against graded company but it's asking an awful lot to try to beat a horse like Creative Cause.
We are now left with a bunch of potentially good ones scrambling to get some graded earnings. I think that many of these trainers are putting all their eggs in one basket. Not good!
I don't know if there are other circumstances which cause so many of these derby nominees to get a late start or if it's the mindset of trainers now a days with this business of trying to get to the Derby with only a couple starts but it sure doesn't seem to be working very well.
Which brings me to Pletcher and his strategy: We all know what he did with Uncle Mo last year in trying to keep him undefeated. They came up with that special race just for him and it left him totally unprepared when he met some real competition and I feel he is doing the same thing with Gemologist who has really looked to be his best prospect. Early on he decided to take the same path to the Derby as with Super Saver but has now switched gears. He has entered Gemologist in an allowance race that appeared out of the blue like that race for Uncle mo last year.
Gemologist still needs some earnings to make the Derby but I think Pletcher is trying to keep this horse undefeated as with Mo. One must remember that an undefeated horse is worth a helluva lot more at stud than one that's been beat. I guess he feels he's got a soft spot for a tune-up race. I think he may be heading for the ARK. Derby but this whole scheme may blow up in his face if Gemologist can't win that one. If he had tried the Rebel or the TAM Derby he could have had two shots at graded earnings but I still think he's more concerned with keeping this horse undefeated so is putting all his eggs in one basket. The kicker would be if he gets beat in the allowance race. Talk about egg on your face!
Backstretch
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Gotham Recap
Gotham Recap
I have mixed feelings about this race. I really thought it would be more competitive but it turned out to be a two horse race or maybe even a one horse race. There were a lot of nice pedigrees in it but none ran to their breeding.
I will say I was surprised that Hansen rated so kindly. When a pure speed horse takes to being rated it is a huge advantage in that they are usually able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. I am still not sold on Hansen because I really don't think he can get 1 1/4 especially if a couple of true speed horses that can get a distance set a fast pace in the Derby.
There are still a lot of races to go and the two who are usually loaded for bear, Baffert and Pletcher, still have some shots left in the gun. We will have to see what Baffert does with Fed Biz and Bodemeister out west. He may take another at Oaklawn with Secret Circle but I'm not high on Castaway.
Although I'm not a fan of Pletcher, he has a few very nice ones that have yet to start. In addition to Gemologist, he has a couple that need earnings but look to be very good. Spring Hill Farm looks to be very speedy and has a great pedigree but I think he has a real sleeper in Stat. He has some graded earnings, a derby type pedigree and looks to want distance.
Even though Union Rags looks to be a monster at this point I think there are still a few ready to explode on the scene. Exothermic is a really nice number that may take a route like Animal Kingdom and his pedigree says he should have no problem with dirt. Some of these turf horses can really turn it up a notch if they take to dirt, probably because to be really good on the grass they need a damned good closing kick.
Lots of action ahead and nobody knows what kind of twists and turns this season will take.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
I have mixed feelings about this race. I really thought it would be more competitive but it turned out to be a two horse race or maybe even a one horse race. There were a lot of nice pedigrees in it but none ran to their breeding.
I will say I was surprised that Hansen rated so kindly. When a pure speed horse takes to being rated it is a huge advantage in that they are usually able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. I am still not sold on Hansen because I really don't think he can get 1 1/4 especially if a couple of true speed horses that can get a distance set a fast pace in the Derby.
There are still a lot of races to go and the two who are usually loaded for bear, Baffert and Pletcher, still have some shots left in the gun. We will have to see what Baffert does with Fed Biz and Bodemeister out west. He may take another at Oaklawn with Secret Circle but I'm not high on Castaway.
Although I'm not a fan of Pletcher, he has a few very nice ones that have yet to start. In addition to Gemologist, he has a couple that need earnings but look to be very good. Spring Hill Farm looks to be very speedy and has a great pedigree but I think he has a real sleeper in Stat. He has some graded earnings, a derby type pedigree and looks to want distance.
Even though Union Rags looks to be a monster at this point I think there are still a few ready to explode on the scene. Exothermic is a really nice number that may take a route like Animal Kingdom and his pedigree says he should have no problem with dirt. Some of these turf horses can really turn it up a notch if they take to dirt, probably because to be really good on the grass they need a damned good closing kick.
Lots of action ahead and nobody knows what kind of twists and turns this season will take.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Newsletter # 8 2/24/12.....Recap
Newsletter # 8 - 2/24/12
Risen Star Stakes FG R11 2/25/12
It looks like we have a stick out in this race. Normally I try to beat this kind but he looks like a cut above these. I've only got a couple in here with derby type pedigrees and the one to beat is El Padrino. I'm not too fond of his pedigree but it looks as good as anything in this race.
Mr Bowling has a nice pedigree but his dosage figures are quite high. In fact, I can't recall a Derby winner with dosage numbers that high. Can't discount him though because this race is a long way from the Derby distance.
Z Dager has a nice old time pedigree with a lot of stamina in it and I was surprised that he was so close to the pace last time. He got blocked pretty good in the stretch and had Sellers made a move to the rail when he had the chance he would have won with no problem. Will be dangerous with a good trip.
Shared Property has an ok pedigree but once again he draws outside and being a deep closer he's going to have to find a way to work a trip.
Optimizer has had a lot of chances but can't seem to get the job done. Another one that needs a perfect trip.
Afford doesn't have much in the way of breeding but I feel like he's going to get a piece of the action here.
1 - #7 El Padrino
2 - #3 Afford
3 - #5 Z Dager
4 - #1 Mr. Bowling
El Padrino won as expected but he didn't do it easily. He may move forward off that race but I want to see more when facing some quality front runners. Not to say that Valeski is a bad horse but I don't think he's derby material. El Padrino may be derby material but not off this race in my opinion. All in all, a decent effort against a weak field.
GP R11 2/26/12 Fountain Of Youth
Having made speed figures of my own there are a few things I found out. One is, I never use a figure taken on an off track. Another is that there is not and never will be anything exact in a horse race except the weight a horse carries. Speed figures are a tool for measuring condition but they can't tell you how fast the horse will run today. Also, I'm a firm believer that horses are distance oriented and speed figures are not transferable from one distance to another. As you can see, I'm not a fan of Beyers, especially when he can go back and adjust his figures after the fact. I think if you want to use speed figures you can't do any better than those found in chapter 10 of Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping. It will put you in the ball park and that's all you can ask of speed figures. The rest is dependent on condition and what happens during the race.
Having said that I am going out on a limb and not picking Algorithms to win. One thing is that his pedigree doesn't meet my Derby profile. That's not to say he won't win again along the way but, unlike the majority of handicappers, I do not consider him as a Derby winning prospect. His last race with the big Beyer was in the slop and he only had to beat Hansen who ran himself into the ground. The second half of that race was kind of slow and I don't think Algorithms caught Hansen, Hansen just backed up. As witness, My Adonis closed 15 lengths in the last half.
Naturally, Union Rags has got to be the horse to beat off his record. He was only beaten once and that was by Hansen in the BC and I think that was the race of Hansen's life and I don't really expect him to repeat that performance unless he's in against an inferior field and can steal it. Rags also has the profile of a Derby horse. How close is he to top form is something only he can tell us and right now he's not talking.
Discreet Dancer has a pedigree that can make a derby horse but his type of pedigree has a low percentage considering how many are bred along those lines. He wired the field in both starts and although the pace was not fast in his last, he finished very fast on his own. It doesn't look like anyone can run with him early and if he's not pressured will be very hard to catch.
Casual Trick is a nicely bred horse and does have some speed. He stumbled at the start last time and was rushed up and then it looked like JR eased him out of it. A clean break could see him sitting in a nice spot just off the pace. He couldn't get by Reveron in his next to last so maybe he lacks a closing punch.
1- #5 Discreet Dancer
2- #7 Union Rags
3- #2 Algorithms
4- #1 Neck' N Neck
Over at GP I thought Discreet Dancer would show some high speed but didn't. He might have but JR backed him way down and put everyone else in position to make a charge.
Of course, there was nobody going to beat Rags as he simply demolished them. I know it was a weak field but the way he did it sure makes it look like he's the one to beat from here on in. One thing I did overlook was that News Pending who ran second at long odds ran a good second against Exothermic who is one of my undefeated derby contenders.
Gotham up next...
Backstretch
Risen Star Stakes FG R11 2/25/12
It looks like we have a stick out in this race. Normally I try to beat this kind but he looks like a cut above these. I've only got a couple in here with derby type pedigrees and the one to beat is El Padrino. I'm not too fond of his pedigree but it looks as good as anything in this race.
Mr Bowling has a nice pedigree but his dosage figures are quite high. In fact, I can't recall a Derby winner with dosage numbers that high. Can't discount him though because this race is a long way from the Derby distance.
Z Dager has a nice old time pedigree with a lot of stamina in it and I was surprised that he was so close to the pace last time. He got blocked pretty good in the stretch and had Sellers made a move to the rail when he had the chance he would have won with no problem. Will be dangerous with a good trip.
Shared Property has an ok pedigree but once again he draws outside and being a deep closer he's going to have to find a way to work a trip.
Optimizer has had a lot of chances but can't seem to get the job done. Another one that needs a perfect trip.
Afford doesn't have much in the way of breeding but I feel like he's going to get a piece of the action here.
1 - #7 El Padrino
2 - #3 Afford
3 - #5 Z Dager
4 - #1 Mr. Bowling
El Padrino won as expected but he didn't do it easily. He may move forward off that race but I want to see more when facing some quality front runners. Not to say that Valeski is a bad horse but I don't think he's derby material. El Padrino may be derby material but not off this race in my opinion. All in all, a decent effort against a weak field.
GP R11 2/26/12 Fountain Of Youth
Having made speed figures of my own there are a few things I found out. One is, I never use a figure taken on an off track. Another is that there is not and never will be anything exact in a horse race except the weight a horse carries. Speed figures are a tool for measuring condition but they can't tell you how fast the horse will run today. Also, I'm a firm believer that horses are distance oriented and speed figures are not transferable from one distance to another. As you can see, I'm not a fan of Beyers, especially when he can go back and adjust his figures after the fact. I think if you want to use speed figures you can't do any better than those found in chapter 10 of Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping. It will put you in the ball park and that's all you can ask of speed figures. The rest is dependent on condition and what happens during the race.
Having said that I am going out on a limb and not picking Algorithms to win. One thing is that his pedigree doesn't meet my Derby profile. That's not to say he won't win again along the way but, unlike the majority of handicappers, I do not consider him as a Derby winning prospect. His last race with the big Beyer was in the slop and he only had to beat Hansen who ran himself into the ground. The second half of that race was kind of slow and I don't think Algorithms caught Hansen, Hansen just backed up. As witness, My Adonis closed 15 lengths in the last half.
Naturally, Union Rags has got to be the horse to beat off his record. He was only beaten once and that was by Hansen in the BC and I think that was the race of Hansen's life and I don't really expect him to repeat that performance unless he's in against an inferior field and can steal it. Rags also has the profile of a Derby horse. How close is he to top form is something only he can tell us and right now he's not talking.
Discreet Dancer has a pedigree that can make a derby horse but his type of pedigree has a low percentage considering how many are bred along those lines. He wired the field in both starts and although the pace was not fast in his last, he finished very fast on his own. It doesn't look like anyone can run with him early and if he's not pressured will be very hard to catch.
Casual Trick is a nicely bred horse and does have some speed. He stumbled at the start last time and was rushed up and then it looked like JR eased him out of it. A clean break could see him sitting in a nice spot just off the pace. He couldn't get by Reveron in his next to last so maybe he lacks a closing punch.
1- #5 Discreet Dancer
2- #7 Union Rags
3- #2 Algorithms
4- #1 Neck' N Neck
Over at GP I thought Discreet Dancer would show some high speed but didn't. He might have but JR backed him way down and put everyone else in position to make a charge.
Of course, there was nobody going to beat Rags as he simply demolished them. I know it was a weak field but the way he did it sure makes it look like he's the one to beat from here on in. One thing I did overlook was that News Pending who ran second at long odds ran a good second against Exothermic who is one of my undefeated derby contenders.
Gotham up next...
Backstretch
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Newsletter # 7 Recap
I didn't do very well this week. In the El Camino I really thought Nakatani would try and rate Handsome Mike but he went head and head with a 90/1 shot in a fast pace duel and gave it up late. He did the same in the Cash Call with Drill and hung in til very late stretch. He has a very nice pedigree for a distance and I still think he has a future if they can rate him a little.
I liked Lucky Chappy also and he damned near won it but I was up in the air with the #1 so bypassed him which was a mistake.
The CA race wasn't much of a race with only 4 going in it. I don't think that race proved anything one way or another.
This was my newsletter:
Newsletter #7 - 2/18/12
El Camino Real GG Race 8
This race always presents a problem because of R. Baze who has won 6 of the last 7 editions. Let's face it, no matter who he rides, he can't be discounted.
In this race Baze is riding the filly Lady Of Fifty, who happens to be one of three horses in here that meet my Derby profile. Hollendorfer, in addition to the filly, has the favorite Russian Greek who is a stone closer. I would think, with the filly being a front runner, the strategy will be to send her and if she's not challenged she may wire them. On the other hand, if a pace duel developes it would be to Russian Greeks advantage.
The other 2 that have my Derby profile are Handsome Mike and Lucky Chappy. Lucky is another strong closer that will be looking for a fast pace to run into. Daddy Nose Best looks to be another closer looking for the race to collapse.
I find 6 of the entries have speed so a fast pace almost seems assured. However, I really don't think it will be the stone closers winning here. I have the feeling that the filly will rate and with her speed she could be in a good spot turning for home and you can usually bet that Baze will be in the right spot.
I like Handsome Mike in this race if he sits just off the pace. He has a lot of speed but I think Nakatani will try to rate him off the pace. He tried that last time in the Sham but he was up against some very quick ones at a shorter distance. In the Cash Call he got into a brutal speed duel and gave it up very late in the stretch against some very good horses. If nobody wants the lead he can take it and be hard to catch.
Here's how I see it;
1- #7 Handsome Mike
2- #10 Lady Of Fifty
3- #6 Lucky Chappy
4- #4 Russian Greek
San Vicente
SA R7 2/19/12
I really shouldn't bother with this race because I see no possible value in it. I'm taking a peek at it because for some reason there's been a handful of winners of this race that have gone on to win the Derby.
Creative Cause looks to be the class of this field. Baffert keeps trying with Drill and he seems to go backward. I'm still on the fence with the pedigree of Creative Cause because, although nicely bred, he doesn't exactly fit my profile for Derby horses. Let's Get Crackin has the right pedigree but just hasn't shown enough ability so far.
Since this race is only 7f breeding isn't going to account for much anyway. I'll just watch this one.
1- Creative Cause
2- Let's Get Crackin
3- American Act
I liked Lucky Chappy also and he damned near won it but I was up in the air with the #1 so bypassed him which was a mistake.
The CA race wasn't much of a race with only 4 going in it. I don't think that race proved anything one way or another.
This was my newsletter:
Newsletter #7 - 2/18/12
El Camino Real GG Race 8
This race always presents a problem because of R. Baze who has won 6 of the last 7 editions. Let's face it, no matter who he rides, he can't be discounted.
In this race Baze is riding the filly Lady Of Fifty, who happens to be one of three horses in here that meet my Derby profile. Hollendorfer, in addition to the filly, has the favorite Russian Greek who is a stone closer. I would think, with the filly being a front runner, the strategy will be to send her and if she's not challenged she may wire them. On the other hand, if a pace duel developes it would be to Russian Greeks advantage.
The other 2 that have my Derby profile are Handsome Mike and Lucky Chappy. Lucky is another strong closer that will be looking for a fast pace to run into. Daddy Nose Best looks to be another closer looking for the race to collapse.
I find 6 of the entries have speed so a fast pace almost seems assured. However, I really don't think it will be the stone closers winning here. I have the feeling that the filly will rate and with her speed she could be in a good spot turning for home and you can usually bet that Baze will be in the right spot.
I like Handsome Mike in this race if he sits just off the pace. He has a lot of speed but I think Nakatani will try to rate him off the pace. He tried that last time in the Sham but he was up against some very quick ones at a shorter distance. In the Cash Call he got into a brutal speed duel and gave it up very late in the stretch against some very good horses. If nobody wants the lead he can take it and be hard to catch.
Here's how I see it;
1- #7 Handsome Mike
2- #10 Lady Of Fifty
3- #6 Lucky Chappy
4- #4 Russian Greek
San Vicente
SA R7 2/19/12
I really shouldn't bother with this race because I see no possible value in it. I'm taking a peek at it because for some reason there's been a handful of winners of this race that have gone on to win the Derby.
Creative Cause looks to be the class of this field. Baffert keeps trying with Drill and he seems to go backward. I'm still on the fence with the pedigree of Creative Cause because, although nicely bred, he doesn't exactly fit my profile for Derby horses. Let's Get Crackin has the right pedigree but just hasn't shown enough ability so far.
Since this race is only 7f breeding isn't going to account for much anyway. I'll just watch this one.
1- Creative Cause
2- Let's Get Crackin
3- American Act
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