Newsletter # 7 Recap

I didn't do very well this week. In the El Camino I really thought Nakatani would try and rate Handsome Mike but he went head and head with a 90/1 shot in a fast pace duel and gave it up late. He did the same in the Cash Call with Drill and hung in til very late stretch. He has a very nice pedigree for a distance and I still think he has a future if they can rate him a little.


I liked Lucky Chappy also and he damned near won it but I was up in the air with the #1 so bypassed him which was a mistake.


The CA race wasn't much of a race with only 4 going in it. I don't think that race proved anything one way or another.


This was my newsletter:



Newsletter #7 - 2/18/12


El Camino Real  GG  Race 8


This race always presents a problem because of R. Baze who has won 6 of the last 7 editions. Let's face it, no matter who he rides, he can't be discounted. 


In this race Baze is riding the filly Lady Of Fifty, who happens to be one of three horses in here that meet my Derby profile. Hollendorfer, in addition to the filly, has the favorite Russian Greek who is a stone closer. I would think, with the filly being a front runner, the strategy will be to send her and if she's not challenged she may wire them. On the other hand, if a pace duel developes it would be to Russian Greeks advantage.


The other 2 that have my Derby profile are Handsome Mike and Lucky Chappy. Lucky is another strong closer that will be looking for a fast pace to run into. Daddy Nose Best looks to be another closer looking for the race to collapse.


I find 6 of the entries have speed so a fast pace almost seems assured. However, I really don't think it will be the stone closers winning here. I have the feeling that the filly will rate and with her speed she could be in a good spot turning for home and you can usually bet that Baze will be in the right spot.


I like Handsome Mike in this race if he sits just off the pace. He has a lot of speed but I think Nakatani will try to rate him off the pace. He tried that last time in the Sham but he was up against some very quick ones at a shorter distance. In the Cash Call he got into a brutal speed duel and gave it up very late in the stretch against some very good horses. If nobody wants the lead he can take it and be hard to catch.


Here's how I see it;


1- #7  Handsome Mike


2- #10  Lady Of Fifty


3- #6  Lucky Chappy


4- #4  Russian Greek 




San Vicente


SA  R7  2/19/12


I really shouldn't bother with this race because I see no possible value in it. I'm taking a peek at it because for some reason there's been a handful of winners of this race that have gone on to win the Derby.


Creative Cause looks to be the class of this field. Baffert keeps trying with Drill and he seems to go backward. I'm still on the fence with the pedigree of Creative Cause because, although nicely bred, he doesn't exactly fit my profile for Derby horses. Let's Get Crackin has the right pedigree but just hasn't shown enough ability so far.


Since this race is only 7f breeding isn't going to account for much anyway. I'll just watch this one.


1- Creative Cause


2- Let's Get Crackin


3- American Act