Newsletter #10 Sat. 3/10/12
GP R10 3/10/12 The Swale
This race is usually full of sprinters but there are a couple in here that I assume are just getting a tune up. One of my derby horses, Motor City, makes his first appearance since winning the Iroquois at CD in Oct. Borel had said this was his derby horse but he is at TAM riding Take Charge Indy.
J. Leparoux is also over at TAM to ride Battle Hardened so I would think this is also a tune up for Ever So Lucky. Cruz has also decided on Golden Ticket at TAM so I guess he thinks that's a better shot than Good Morning Diva.
This is not to say these don't have a chance just because the jocks elect to go to a more important race. In fact, ESL and MC look to be the class of this race. Not all of these are nominated to the derby but there are some real nice pedigrees in here. I am actually amazed at the number of horses this year that would qualify them as derby horses. Last year there were only a dozen or so but there are at least three times that many this year.
If all the horses had derby pedigrees some would have to be better than others so I can't say any particular horse will win simply because it has a great pedigree.
There are five in here that qualify on my derby profile; Trinniberg, Motor City, Bahamian Squall, Seve and Good Morning Diva.Any one of them may win this for a couple of reasons. One reason is that it is a sprint and the other is, as I said, it may only be a tune up for a couple of them.
1- Ever So Lucky...not thinking of him for the derby but seems to be a cut above these right now with that second to Gemologist..how ready is he?
2- Seve...taking a shot here because of his experience and nice pedigree.
3- Motor City...distance may be too short but he should be motoring at the end.
4- Bahamian Squall...lovely breeding...will probably like the distance
Good Morning Diva..I probably should rate him higher at this distance.
Trinniberg...very speedy...surprised at huge odds in the Hopeful but tends to tire...still dangerous
I will look for some value and probably use a couple of the newcomers in the exotics. I feel ESL will be the chalk and I will try to beat him even though he looks best on paper...might be a little short on condition.
TAM R11 3/10/12 Tampa Bay Derby
This should be a competitive race with horses coming from numerous different races. We have some coming off the turf, a couple stretching out and a few that have been factors in graded races already. Should be interesting.
I have 6 in here that fit my derby profile and no standouts on form. I have been looking all year to find a quality front runner that fits my derby profile and have only seen a couple possibles and Spring Hill Farm is one of them. A superb pedigree and has wired the field in both his races so I'm going with him to win. I really hope he's got the right stuff because I'd like to see what Hansen does with a front runner of quality.
Battle Hardened, Cozzetti, Golden Ticket, Prospective and Tell All You Know all fit my derby profile so I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them take it all.
I don't see anyone that looks like it's able to run with SHF early except maybe Cajun Charlie and Tell All You Know. If Spring is able to top it all the way most of them may be far back early but those two may take some of the starch out of Spring Hill early. Another possible scenerio is if JJ can rate Spring early till the leaders quit. Take Charge looks to have enough speed to stay fairly close and has gone the distance a few times. The closers will be trying to catch the top two.
1- Spring Hill Farm
2- Prospective
3- Battle Hardened
4- Cozzetti
SA R9 3/10/12 The San Felipe
I think I'm going to take the same tack here as in the Tampa Derby. As I have said, I am still looking for that quality front runner that can sustain his speed over a distance so I will go with Baffert's horse Bodemeister. He blew them away last time at a mile and his pedigree tells me he can go farther than that.
Another with a pedigree that says he should run all day is Tiz Point. I know he doesn't have much in the way of speed figures but I kind of think he's really bred for dirt and he hasn't tried that yet. He has a second to Stoney Fleece who is a very nice turf horse that won the generous Stakes. Mandella has a very good % when going from turf to dirt and this one has been working nicely at SA. I'm giving him a shot at long odds in addition to the fact that he fits my derby profile. Doesn't hurt that he gets Gomez up either.
I am not crazy about the pedigree of Creative Cause but at this distance he's a serious contender. In fact, I think he will go off as the chalk.
I love the pedigree of Empire Way and he's on my Derby list but I think he wants more distance like the derby distance. I don't think the post is going to help him being that he wants to come off the pace. Jock will have to get lucky to work a good trip. If he doesn't win he's going to have to get some earnings somewhere and I think Harrington is really pointing him to the SA Derby.
Liaison is another with a good pedigree but he doesn't need any earnings so if it should come down to him and Bodemeister I have the feeling Baffert would like to see Bodemeister get the money.
1- Bodemeister
2- Tiz Point
3- Creative Cause
4- Empire Way
5- Liaison
RECAP:
Things didn't quite work out this week. It was a shame that Spring Hill Farm fractured a leg in the TAM Derby. Don't know how he even managed to finish the race.
Prospective, my 2nd choice proved to be very game winning it and may be a force to be dealt with later. He is another that came out of the Breeders Cup to win and I have been thinking that the BC was one of those key races where most of them win their next race. On second thought however, I am more inclined to think that horses like Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause and Prospective have had a big advantage in experience and having had a solid foundation built.
We had the same type situation in the San Felipe with Bodemeister and Creative Cause. Bodemeister looked very good in his first try against graded company but it's asking an awful lot to try to beat a horse like Creative Cause.
We are now left with a bunch of potentially good ones scrambling to get some graded earnings. I think that many of these trainers are putting all their eggs in one basket. Not good!
I don't know if there are other circumstances which cause so many of these derby nominees to get a late start or if it's the mindset of trainers now a days with this business of trying to get to the Derby with only a couple starts but it sure doesn't seem to be working very well.
Which brings me to Pletcher and his strategy: We all know what he did with Uncle Mo last year in trying to keep him undefeated. They came up with that special race just for him and it left him totally unprepared when he met some real competition and I feel he is doing the same thing with Gemologist who has really looked to be his best prospect. Early on he decided to take the same path to the Derby as with Super Saver but has now switched gears. He has entered Gemologist in an allowance race that appeared out of the blue like that race for Uncle mo last year.
Gemologist still needs some earnings to make the Derby but I think Pletcher is trying to keep this horse undefeated as with Mo. One must remember that an undefeated horse is worth a helluva lot more at stud than one that's been beat. I guess he feels he's got a soft spot for a tune-up race. I think he may be heading for the ARK. Derby but this whole scheme may blow up in his face if Gemologist can't win that one. If he had tried the Rebel or the TAM Derby he could have had two shots at graded earnings but I still think he's more concerned with keeping this horse undefeated so is putting all his eggs in one basket. The kicker would be if he gets beat in the allowance race. Talk about egg on your face!
Backstretch
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Gotham Recap
Gotham Recap
I have mixed feelings about this race. I really thought it would be more competitive but it turned out to be a two horse race or maybe even a one horse race. There were a lot of nice pedigrees in it but none ran to their breeding.
I will say I was surprised that Hansen rated so kindly. When a pure speed horse takes to being rated it is a huge advantage in that they are usually able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. I am still not sold on Hansen because I really don't think he can get 1 1/4 especially if a couple of true speed horses that can get a distance set a fast pace in the Derby.
There are still a lot of races to go and the two who are usually loaded for bear, Baffert and Pletcher, still have some shots left in the gun. We will have to see what Baffert does with Fed Biz and Bodemeister out west. He may take another at Oaklawn with Secret Circle but I'm not high on Castaway.
Although I'm not a fan of Pletcher, he has a few very nice ones that have yet to start. In addition to Gemologist, he has a couple that need earnings but look to be very good. Spring Hill Farm looks to be very speedy and has a great pedigree but I think he has a real sleeper in Stat. He has some graded earnings, a derby type pedigree and looks to want distance.
Even though Union Rags looks to be a monster at this point I think there are still a few ready to explode on the scene. Exothermic is a really nice number that may take a route like Animal Kingdom and his pedigree says he should have no problem with dirt. Some of these turf horses can really turn it up a notch if they take to dirt, probably because to be really good on the grass they need a damned good closing kick.
Lots of action ahead and nobody knows what kind of twists and turns this season will take.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
I have mixed feelings about this race. I really thought it would be more competitive but it turned out to be a two horse race or maybe even a one horse race. There were a lot of nice pedigrees in it but none ran to their breeding.
I will say I was surprised that Hansen rated so kindly. When a pure speed horse takes to being rated it is a huge advantage in that they are usually able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. I am still not sold on Hansen because I really don't think he can get 1 1/4 especially if a couple of true speed horses that can get a distance set a fast pace in the Derby.
There are still a lot of races to go and the two who are usually loaded for bear, Baffert and Pletcher, still have some shots left in the gun. We will have to see what Baffert does with Fed Biz and Bodemeister out west. He may take another at Oaklawn with Secret Circle but I'm not high on Castaway.
Although I'm not a fan of Pletcher, he has a few very nice ones that have yet to start. In addition to Gemologist, he has a couple that need earnings but look to be very good. Spring Hill Farm looks to be very speedy and has a great pedigree but I think he has a real sleeper in Stat. He has some graded earnings, a derby type pedigree and looks to want distance.
Even though Union Rags looks to be a monster at this point I think there are still a few ready to explode on the scene. Exothermic is a really nice number that may take a route like Animal Kingdom and his pedigree says he should have no problem with dirt. Some of these turf horses can really turn it up a notch if they take to dirt, probably because to be really good on the grass they need a damned good closing kick.
Lots of action ahead and nobody knows what kind of twists and turns this season will take.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Newsletter # 8 2/24/12.....Recap
Newsletter # 8 - 2/24/12
Risen Star Stakes FG R11 2/25/12
It looks like we have a stick out in this race. Normally I try to beat this kind but he looks like a cut above these. I've only got a couple in here with derby type pedigrees and the one to beat is El Padrino. I'm not too fond of his pedigree but it looks as good as anything in this race.
Mr Bowling has a nice pedigree but his dosage figures are quite high. In fact, I can't recall a Derby winner with dosage numbers that high. Can't discount him though because this race is a long way from the Derby distance.
Z Dager has a nice old time pedigree with a lot of stamina in it and I was surprised that he was so close to the pace last time. He got blocked pretty good in the stretch and had Sellers made a move to the rail when he had the chance he would have won with no problem. Will be dangerous with a good trip.
Shared Property has an ok pedigree but once again he draws outside and being a deep closer he's going to have to find a way to work a trip.
Optimizer has had a lot of chances but can't seem to get the job done. Another one that needs a perfect trip.
Afford doesn't have much in the way of breeding but I feel like he's going to get a piece of the action here.
1 - #7 El Padrino
2 - #3 Afford
3 - #5 Z Dager
4 - #1 Mr. Bowling
El Padrino won as expected but he didn't do it easily. He may move forward off that race but I want to see more when facing some quality front runners. Not to say that Valeski is a bad horse but I don't think he's derby material. El Padrino may be derby material but not off this race in my opinion. All in all, a decent effort against a weak field.
GP R11 2/26/12 Fountain Of Youth
Having made speed figures of my own there are a few things I found out. One is, I never use a figure taken on an off track. Another is that there is not and never will be anything exact in a horse race except the weight a horse carries. Speed figures are a tool for measuring condition but they can't tell you how fast the horse will run today. Also, I'm a firm believer that horses are distance oriented and speed figures are not transferable from one distance to another. As you can see, I'm not a fan of Beyers, especially when he can go back and adjust his figures after the fact. I think if you want to use speed figures you can't do any better than those found in chapter 10 of Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping. It will put you in the ball park and that's all you can ask of speed figures. The rest is dependent on condition and what happens during the race.
Having said that I am going out on a limb and not picking Algorithms to win. One thing is that his pedigree doesn't meet my Derby profile. That's not to say he won't win again along the way but, unlike the majority of handicappers, I do not consider him as a Derby winning prospect. His last race with the big Beyer was in the slop and he only had to beat Hansen who ran himself into the ground. The second half of that race was kind of slow and I don't think Algorithms caught Hansen, Hansen just backed up. As witness, My Adonis closed 15 lengths in the last half.
Naturally, Union Rags has got to be the horse to beat off his record. He was only beaten once and that was by Hansen in the BC and I think that was the race of Hansen's life and I don't really expect him to repeat that performance unless he's in against an inferior field and can steal it. Rags also has the profile of a Derby horse. How close is he to top form is something only he can tell us and right now he's not talking.
Discreet Dancer has a pedigree that can make a derby horse but his type of pedigree has a low percentage considering how many are bred along those lines. He wired the field in both starts and although the pace was not fast in his last, he finished very fast on his own. It doesn't look like anyone can run with him early and if he's not pressured will be very hard to catch.
Casual Trick is a nicely bred horse and does have some speed. He stumbled at the start last time and was rushed up and then it looked like JR eased him out of it. A clean break could see him sitting in a nice spot just off the pace. He couldn't get by Reveron in his next to last so maybe he lacks a closing punch.
1- #5 Discreet Dancer
2- #7 Union Rags
3- #2 Algorithms
4- #1 Neck' N Neck
Over at GP I thought Discreet Dancer would show some high speed but didn't. He might have but JR backed him way down and put everyone else in position to make a charge.
Of course, there was nobody going to beat Rags as he simply demolished them. I know it was a weak field but the way he did it sure makes it look like he's the one to beat from here on in. One thing I did overlook was that News Pending who ran second at long odds ran a good second against Exothermic who is one of my undefeated derby contenders.
Gotham up next...
Backstretch
Risen Star Stakes FG R11 2/25/12
It looks like we have a stick out in this race. Normally I try to beat this kind but he looks like a cut above these. I've only got a couple in here with derby type pedigrees and the one to beat is El Padrino. I'm not too fond of his pedigree but it looks as good as anything in this race.
Mr Bowling has a nice pedigree but his dosage figures are quite high. In fact, I can't recall a Derby winner with dosage numbers that high. Can't discount him though because this race is a long way from the Derby distance.
Z Dager has a nice old time pedigree with a lot of stamina in it and I was surprised that he was so close to the pace last time. He got blocked pretty good in the stretch and had Sellers made a move to the rail when he had the chance he would have won with no problem. Will be dangerous with a good trip.
Shared Property has an ok pedigree but once again he draws outside and being a deep closer he's going to have to find a way to work a trip.
Optimizer has had a lot of chances but can't seem to get the job done. Another one that needs a perfect trip.
Afford doesn't have much in the way of breeding but I feel like he's going to get a piece of the action here.
1 - #7 El Padrino
2 - #3 Afford
3 - #5 Z Dager
4 - #1 Mr. Bowling
El Padrino won as expected but he didn't do it easily. He may move forward off that race but I want to see more when facing some quality front runners. Not to say that Valeski is a bad horse but I don't think he's derby material. El Padrino may be derby material but not off this race in my opinion. All in all, a decent effort against a weak field.
GP R11 2/26/12 Fountain Of Youth
Having made speed figures of my own there are a few things I found out. One is, I never use a figure taken on an off track. Another is that there is not and never will be anything exact in a horse race except the weight a horse carries. Speed figures are a tool for measuring condition but they can't tell you how fast the horse will run today. Also, I'm a firm believer that horses are distance oriented and speed figures are not transferable from one distance to another. As you can see, I'm not a fan of Beyers, especially when he can go back and adjust his figures after the fact. I think if you want to use speed figures you can't do any better than those found in chapter 10 of Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping. It will put you in the ball park and that's all you can ask of speed figures. The rest is dependent on condition and what happens during the race.
Having said that I am going out on a limb and not picking Algorithms to win. One thing is that his pedigree doesn't meet my Derby profile. That's not to say he won't win again along the way but, unlike the majority of handicappers, I do not consider him as a Derby winning prospect. His last race with the big Beyer was in the slop and he only had to beat Hansen who ran himself into the ground. The second half of that race was kind of slow and I don't think Algorithms caught Hansen, Hansen just backed up. As witness, My Adonis closed 15 lengths in the last half.
Naturally, Union Rags has got to be the horse to beat off his record. He was only beaten once and that was by Hansen in the BC and I think that was the race of Hansen's life and I don't really expect him to repeat that performance unless he's in against an inferior field and can steal it. Rags also has the profile of a Derby horse. How close is he to top form is something only he can tell us and right now he's not talking.
Discreet Dancer has a pedigree that can make a derby horse but his type of pedigree has a low percentage considering how many are bred along those lines. He wired the field in both starts and although the pace was not fast in his last, he finished very fast on his own. It doesn't look like anyone can run with him early and if he's not pressured will be very hard to catch.
Casual Trick is a nicely bred horse and does have some speed. He stumbled at the start last time and was rushed up and then it looked like JR eased him out of it. A clean break could see him sitting in a nice spot just off the pace. He couldn't get by Reveron in his next to last so maybe he lacks a closing punch.
1- #5 Discreet Dancer
2- #7 Union Rags
3- #2 Algorithms
4- #1 Neck' N Neck
Over at GP I thought Discreet Dancer would show some high speed but didn't. He might have but JR backed him way down and put everyone else in position to make a charge.
Of course, there was nobody going to beat Rags as he simply demolished them. I know it was a weak field but the way he did it sure makes it look like he's the one to beat from here on in. One thing I did overlook was that News Pending who ran second at long odds ran a good second against Exothermic who is one of my undefeated derby contenders.
Gotham up next...
Backstretch
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Newsletter # 7 Recap
I didn't do very well this week. In the El Camino I really thought Nakatani would try and rate Handsome Mike but he went head and head with a 90/1 shot in a fast pace duel and gave it up late. He did the same in the Cash Call with Drill and hung in til very late stretch. He has a very nice pedigree for a distance and I still think he has a future if they can rate him a little.
I liked Lucky Chappy also and he damned near won it but I was up in the air with the #1 so bypassed him which was a mistake.
The CA race wasn't much of a race with only 4 going in it. I don't think that race proved anything one way or another.
This was my newsletter:
Newsletter #7 - 2/18/12
El Camino Real GG Race 8
This race always presents a problem because of R. Baze who has won 6 of the last 7 editions. Let's face it, no matter who he rides, he can't be discounted.
In this race Baze is riding the filly Lady Of Fifty, who happens to be one of three horses in here that meet my Derby profile. Hollendorfer, in addition to the filly, has the favorite Russian Greek who is a stone closer. I would think, with the filly being a front runner, the strategy will be to send her and if she's not challenged she may wire them. On the other hand, if a pace duel developes it would be to Russian Greeks advantage.
The other 2 that have my Derby profile are Handsome Mike and Lucky Chappy. Lucky is another strong closer that will be looking for a fast pace to run into. Daddy Nose Best looks to be another closer looking for the race to collapse.
I find 6 of the entries have speed so a fast pace almost seems assured. However, I really don't think it will be the stone closers winning here. I have the feeling that the filly will rate and with her speed she could be in a good spot turning for home and you can usually bet that Baze will be in the right spot.
I like Handsome Mike in this race if he sits just off the pace. He has a lot of speed but I think Nakatani will try to rate him off the pace. He tried that last time in the Sham but he was up against some very quick ones at a shorter distance. In the Cash Call he got into a brutal speed duel and gave it up very late in the stretch against some very good horses. If nobody wants the lead he can take it and be hard to catch.
Here's how I see it;
1- #7 Handsome Mike
2- #10 Lady Of Fifty
3- #6 Lucky Chappy
4- #4 Russian Greek
San Vicente
SA R7 2/19/12
I really shouldn't bother with this race because I see no possible value in it. I'm taking a peek at it because for some reason there's been a handful of winners of this race that have gone on to win the Derby.
Creative Cause looks to be the class of this field. Baffert keeps trying with Drill and he seems to go backward. I'm still on the fence with the pedigree of Creative Cause because, although nicely bred, he doesn't exactly fit my profile for Derby horses. Let's Get Crackin has the right pedigree but just hasn't shown enough ability so far.
Since this race is only 7f breeding isn't going to account for much anyway. I'll just watch this one.
1- Creative Cause
2- Let's Get Crackin
3- American Act
I liked Lucky Chappy also and he damned near won it but I was up in the air with the #1 so bypassed him which was a mistake.
The CA race wasn't much of a race with only 4 going in it. I don't think that race proved anything one way or another.
This was my newsletter:
Newsletter #7 - 2/18/12
El Camino Real GG Race 8
This race always presents a problem because of R. Baze who has won 6 of the last 7 editions. Let's face it, no matter who he rides, he can't be discounted.
In this race Baze is riding the filly Lady Of Fifty, who happens to be one of three horses in here that meet my Derby profile. Hollendorfer, in addition to the filly, has the favorite Russian Greek who is a stone closer. I would think, with the filly being a front runner, the strategy will be to send her and if she's not challenged she may wire them. On the other hand, if a pace duel developes it would be to Russian Greeks advantage.
The other 2 that have my Derby profile are Handsome Mike and Lucky Chappy. Lucky is another strong closer that will be looking for a fast pace to run into. Daddy Nose Best looks to be another closer looking for the race to collapse.
I find 6 of the entries have speed so a fast pace almost seems assured. However, I really don't think it will be the stone closers winning here. I have the feeling that the filly will rate and with her speed she could be in a good spot turning for home and you can usually bet that Baze will be in the right spot.
I like Handsome Mike in this race if he sits just off the pace. He has a lot of speed but I think Nakatani will try to rate him off the pace. He tried that last time in the Sham but he was up against some very quick ones at a shorter distance. In the Cash Call he got into a brutal speed duel and gave it up very late in the stretch against some very good horses. If nobody wants the lead he can take it and be hard to catch.
Here's how I see it;
1- #7 Handsome Mike
2- #10 Lady Of Fifty
3- #6 Lucky Chappy
4- #4 Russian Greek
San Vicente
SA R7 2/19/12
I really shouldn't bother with this race because I see no possible value in it. I'm taking a peek at it because for some reason there's been a handful of winners of this race that have gone on to win the Derby.
Creative Cause looks to be the class of this field. Baffert keeps trying with Drill and he seems to go backward. I'm still on the fence with the pedigree of Creative Cause because, although nicely bred, he doesn't exactly fit my profile for Derby horses. Let's Get Crackin has the right pedigree but just hasn't shown enough ability so far.
Since this race is only 7f breeding isn't going to account for much anyway. I'll just watch this one.
1- Creative Cause
2- Let's Get Crackin
3- American Act
Saturday, February 4, 2012
Newsletter #5 Sat. 2/4/12
For those that thought $2.50 per week was too much for the newsletter, here's what you missed so far.
In the Smarty Jones I gave 4 horses and 3 of them ran 1-2-3
In the Holy Bull I gave 4 and 3 of them ran 1-2-3
In the LeComte I gave 4 and one of them won.
Today;
In the Withers I gave 4 and one scratched and I had the winner w/a 44/1 shot second.
In the Sam Davis I gave 4 + 2 long shots and 1 of the LS won and beat my top 2.
In the R. Lewis I gave 4 and 2 of them ran 1-2 with a 44/1 shot on top beating my first choice for an $800. ex.
I got sidetracked a little in the Sam Davis because instead of sticking with my pedigrees all the way I got a little influenced by the trainers and put 2 in that I shouldn't have. All in all, a helluva nice day!
Newsletter #5 Sat. 2/4/12
The Withers
AQU Race 9 2/4/12
This race is sort of a rerun of the Count Fleet that Alpha took. In that race I had Alpha and Speightscity as my pedigree horses and they are still my best bred in this race.
If you recall I said before the Count Fleet that Alpha's race in the BC was hard to understand. He had run second to the leading contender Union Rags in his previous race and yet he got no betting action at all in the BC which led me to believe that something was wrong and someone knew it. Alpha redeemed himself in the Count Fleet and looks to be the one to beat in here.
Speightscity has a beautiful pedigree but it's my belief that his training has been faulty. It looks to me that his form is ass- backwards in that, when he looks like he should run good he doesn't and vise-versa. I'm going to give him another chance for the money and maybe he will wake up. Perhaps he will never run to his pedigree but there is still time for him to turn it around.
Swag Daddy has an interesting pedigree. He's got a nice record running in NY state bred races but moves up here. What's interesting about him is his dam sire line is sort of almost extinct as far as there being any sires to carry on the line. It's unusual nowadays to see a pedigree with Damascus so close up. This is the line from the great Teddy and as I said, Teddy's sire line has all but disappeared except for a few in South America. I think this one may be able to run all day and I'll be interested to see if he has the talent to compete with the best.
Hakama has a nice pedigree being inbred to Norther Dancer on the sire's side and also having Damascus on the tail. He has a few things going for him; he has a lot of speed and his breeding says he should be able to carry it a long way, has a win over the track and I recall a good one recently taking this route.
This race may come down to whether anyone can catch Hakama and it might be Alpha.
1- Alpha
2- Hakama
3- Swag Daddy
4- Speightscity
The Robert B. Lewis
Santa Anita Sat. 2/4/12
This race could be a rerun of the Cash Call Fut. We have 4 of the first 5 finishers back in this race. It seems to me that the CC race must have had a very fast pace regardless of what the numbers might say. There were 2 horses, Drill and Handsome Mike, dueling for the lead all the way into the stretch. What makes me think they were going pretty fast is that Majestic City, who is very fast, couldn't keep pace with those two.
The first 5 finishers all came from off the pace. Laison was only a few lengths back and got the jump on the others. So, I suppose the question is, what kind of pace will we see this time. There are 3 horses in here with a lot of speed so we may get a duel but I have an idea that only one is going to really shoot for the lead. We may also see a closer or two try to get closer to the pace.
There are several in this one with nice pedigrees and the ones I like are, Empire Way, Liaison, Sky Kingdom and I'll Have Another. Since this race looks like any one of them could win I'm just playing by pedigree. Just looks to be a very contentious race and not a place to place a big bet. Best to fool around with some exotic boxes.
1- Empire Way
2- Sky Kingdom
3- Liaison
4- I'll Have Another
The Sam Davis
Tampa Bay Sat. 2/4/12
This looks to be the most interesting race this week. There are a lot of possibilities in this race and maybe a chance for a big exotic. There are some nicely bred horses here but I think the best one at this time is Reveron although I don't really think he will get the Derby distance. As I've often said, there are a lot of pedigrees that may be brilliant up to 1 1/8 but encounter trouble trying to get that extra 1/8 and that's what I think will happen with Reveron.
Prospective is one that looks to be able to handle the classics and has had a nice tune up by winning the Pasco. He may have a little trouble here with the outside post. He does have a little speed but the jock is going to have to work a trip to get him into contention. State Of Play has a nice pedigree but I would like to see some dirt form before I make a decision on him. He does have some speed and was hampered by the extreme outside post in the BC but if he takes to dirt he might be a threat.
The real speed in here is Pletcher's colt Ecabroni and we know that he has his charges ready at this time of year. I don't like his breeding for the classics but this is not a classic and speed is always dangerous. I expect to see him get a lot of action but I want some value before I back one stretching out against some good ones.
Burning Time is an interesting colt with the Damascus dam sire line. He should love a distance and be very durable but this race may be a tad short for him. Has a big late, late move so could fill the bottom of the exotics.
Battle Hardened is another that is well bred and has already ran a good one at 1 1/8. Neck'n Neck ran second last time to highly regarded Discreet Dancer so should be a contender off his form. I'm still undecided about his pedigree but again, this race is not a classic. This race is usually won by something running up near the front but there may be a battle for the lead so we can't discount a closer winning this one.
1- Reveron
2- Prospective
3- Neck'n Neck
4- Ecabroni
Long shots - Battle Hardened and Burning time
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Newsletter #4 1/28/12
The Holy Bull
This early in the preps and at the shorter distance, pedigree doesn't make the difference. When I look at the pedigrees I'm looking for horses that have the potential to get the classic distances. In addition to the potential they must have athletic ability.
There are 2 in here, My Adonis and Fort Loudon that have classic pedigrees but they haven't show any exceptional talent yet. Fort Loudon ran up a string of victories but they were in state bred races. He's only had one other race and that was against Hansen in the BC. It really wasn't a bad race considering the field and he had a bad post position and was wide around the turn. He seems to be a game horse and may do better coming off the pace .
My Adonis has a very nice pedigree and was looking good until his last race where he battled on a very quick pace and folded. Any horse can be beat if allowed to get into a speed duel so I have to throw out his last.
Of course Hansen is the one to beat. He's never been headed so we really don't know how fast he is and I don't think he will let anyone head him in this race. The only knock I have against him, and it's not for this race, is that his type pedigree with the Raise A Native G dams can be brilliant to 1 1/8 but I don't like them beyond that. But, one never knows when dealing with high speed. We won't know what he's made of until he gets challenged.
Then we have the 2 Bernardini colts and it's hard to fault either one at this distance. Consortium was narrowly beaten by Algorithms but lasix for the first time might make a difference. Then we have Silver Max who is always right there at the finish but his races have all been on the grass so I take this race as a move up in class for him.
Taken altogether, I think this could be a very contentious race so I'm going to shoot for some value:
1- #4 Hansen
2- #3 My Adonis
3- #5 Fort Loudon
4- #6 Algorithms
Recapping the Holy Bull it's kind of fuzzy as to why the race went the way it did. Hansen stumbled at the start and this could of been the cause of his being rank but I really don't think so. Maybe it was the track condition that did it but I'm more inclined to think it was a combination of the stumble, the track and jockey error. Ramon, in my opinion, is overly aggressive on a lot of horses. I know he wins a lot on the front end but, except in races away from NY, he usually has the best horse.
Perhaps I'm way out of line with my thinking but I happen to be one that gives a lot of consideration to jockeys. I have been watching races for over 60 yrs starting before the days of TV and reruns and have learned that jockeys are no where as good at judging pace as they are given credit for. That 22 second quarter did Hansen in. On the other hand, he could have been a little short on condition or even possibly over trained and left his best in a fast work. We won't know until he runs again and see if he rates kindly and also how he will do on a fast track.
Algorithms looks to be a good one and hasn't done anything wrong yet. I don't have him having what I like in a classic pedigree but I may be way off base with that. Can't fault him so far.
My Adonis tangled with Consortium at the start and dropped way off the pace. In fact, he was 20 lengths back at the half and closed about 15 lengths in the last half. He does have speed and I was expecting to see him sitting just off the leaders but he was left with way too much to do but ran a game race, He has a nice classic pedigree and still might be heard from in later races.
Backstretch.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Sires of Derby Winners
I don't wish to appear arrogant or to say that I know more than anyone else, but it seems there are very few experts that have been able to point out KY Derby winners with any consistency by pedigree analysis. In my case, on various websites, I have touted Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Big Brown, and Animal Kingdom. I liked hard Spun even though he couldn't quite do it. I didn't pick him to win but I had Mine That Bird on my derby list. Having those horses on my lists as horses that could get the derby distance, I feel that my approach has more than a little merit.
Having said that, I'd like to point out a few statistics; Since 1940 there have been only 5 sires that have sired more than one derby winner. In 40 and 45 Sir Gallahad sired the winners. The years of 41 and 47 saw Blenheim II do the trick. Bull Lea sired the winners in 48,52,57. Bold Bidder's sons did it in 74 and 79. Halo colts won in 83 and 89 followed by sons of Maria's Mon in 2001 and 2010.
In assessing the value of these stats one must keep in mind that in years past a very few, relative to today, breeding operations controlled the best stallions and had full control as to what mares would be covered. In fact, during my formative years in racing, Calumet Farms won no less than 7 Derby's between 1941 and 1958. We have to take into account that in the fifties there were only about 5-7,000 foals born in a year, while today, there are 25-30,000 born and I think there was a year in the recent past when over 37,000 were foaled.
This means that the pool of stallions available today is huge compared to years past. When Nearco sired Nearartic and Nasrullah a totally new era was ushered in. Through Northern Dancer, probably the most influential sire of modern times, and his siblings and offspring a whole line or family was established. Another stallion who made his mark is Mr Prospector, and since his dam was sired by a son of Nasrullah, we have Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector basically in the same family. Since that time the offspring of those two stallions have been just about completely inbred.
Half the horses at the yearling and 2 yr old sales have pedigrees dominated by Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector. In fact, I would estimate that 90% of all the good stallions standing today can be traced back to Phalaris by way of Nearco. Since these stallions are all virtually of the same blood lines, I contend that it doesn't make too much difference who the stallion is. A derby winner can be sired by just about any one of them.
Why do I say that? Because breeding operations try to keep tight control of the mares that are covered by their stallions. The money is in the stud side of the game simply because a stallion can cover as many as 150 mares in a year but a mare can produce only one foal. Years ago, when the breeding was controlled by a select few, those breeders would not let a foal leave the farm if it wasn't a good one. Every effort is made to insure that their stallions are only seen in the best light. And yet, they all know that the success of the stallion is determined by the mares he covers.
Breeders with mares try to send them to stallions with the best racing records that are affordable. Nobody breeds from stallions who were no good on the track, some were just better than others but that doesnt make them better at stud. For example; Nashau was a champion and yet never sired much in the way of runners but his daughters did. The great Mr Prospector was out of a Nashua mare. Big Red himself was not much as a sire but his daughters dropped some really good ones.
The pipeline to the foal is through the females. I won't go into genetic codes and such here but it is my firm belief that it is the females AND where they are placed in the pedigree that makes the difference. When I look at a pedigree I don't look at individuals and their racing records. There have been many good horses that were out of unraced mares. I don't favor any particular sires because there are any number of them that can produce a Derby winner. If just about any decent stallion is put on a mare that puts the females in favorable positions to transfer the best qualities to the foal a champion can be had.
At any rate, I'll leave it at that for now and give you my list of Derby prospects. I have dropped some because of various reasons. Some seem destined for the turf and others are just not racing to their potential. It's still early and revisions will have to be made as others appear on the scene.
Classic Pedigrees in alphabetical order;
Alpha
Done Talking
Dullahan
Empire Way
Fly Lexis Fly
Fort Loudon
Gemologist.....minus the other, this is my pick to win the derby as of now.
Junebugred
Motor City
My Adonis
Power...........if this one comes to the party he would be my pick right now.
Reckless Jerry
Seve
Souper Speedy
Union Rags
In addition are some that I think can be brilliant up to 1 1/8 but doubt the derby distance.
Currency Swap
El Padrino
Hansen
Hunt Crossing
Reveron
This is only a partial listing. There are some that may be off the trail or whatever because I am not up to date on a lot of things. As they weed themselves out a lot will be dropped and some picked up. These are selected strictly on pedigree but when playing performance must be considered.
Having said that, I'd like to point out a few statistics; Since 1940 there have been only 5 sires that have sired more than one derby winner. In 40 and 45 Sir Gallahad sired the winners. The years of 41 and 47 saw Blenheim II do the trick. Bull Lea sired the winners in 48,52,57. Bold Bidder's sons did it in 74 and 79. Halo colts won in 83 and 89 followed by sons of Maria's Mon in 2001 and 2010.
In assessing the value of these stats one must keep in mind that in years past a very few, relative to today, breeding operations controlled the best stallions and had full control as to what mares would be covered. In fact, during my formative years in racing, Calumet Farms won no less than 7 Derby's between 1941 and 1958. We have to take into account that in the fifties there were only about 5-7,000 foals born in a year, while today, there are 25-30,000 born and I think there was a year in the recent past when over 37,000 were foaled.
This means that the pool of stallions available today is huge compared to years past. When Nearco sired Nearartic and Nasrullah a totally new era was ushered in. Through Northern Dancer, probably the most influential sire of modern times, and his siblings and offspring a whole line or family was established. Another stallion who made his mark is Mr Prospector, and since his dam was sired by a son of Nasrullah, we have Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector basically in the same family. Since that time the offspring of those two stallions have been just about completely inbred.
Half the horses at the yearling and 2 yr old sales have pedigrees dominated by Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector. In fact, I would estimate that 90% of all the good stallions standing today can be traced back to Phalaris by way of Nearco. Since these stallions are all virtually of the same blood lines, I contend that it doesn't make too much difference who the stallion is. A derby winner can be sired by just about any one of them.
Why do I say that? Because breeding operations try to keep tight control of the mares that are covered by their stallions. The money is in the stud side of the game simply because a stallion can cover as many as 150 mares in a year but a mare can produce only one foal. Years ago, when the breeding was controlled by a select few, those breeders would not let a foal leave the farm if it wasn't a good one. Every effort is made to insure that their stallions are only seen in the best light. And yet, they all know that the success of the stallion is determined by the mares he covers.
Breeders with mares try to send them to stallions with the best racing records that are affordable. Nobody breeds from stallions who were no good on the track, some were just better than others but that doesnt make them better at stud. For example; Nashau was a champion and yet never sired much in the way of runners but his daughters did. The great Mr Prospector was out of a Nashua mare. Big Red himself was not much as a sire but his daughters dropped some really good ones.
The pipeline to the foal is through the females. I won't go into genetic codes and such here but it is my firm belief that it is the females AND where they are placed in the pedigree that makes the difference. When I look at a pedigree I don't look at individuals and their racing records. There have been many good horses that were out of unraced mares. I don't favor any particular sires because there are any number of them that can produce a Derby winner. If just about any decent stallion is put on a mare that puts the females in favorable positions to transfer the best qualities to the foal a champion can be had.
At any rate, I'll leave it at that for now and give you my list of Derby prospects. I have dropped some because of various reasons. Some seem destined for the turf and others are just not racing to their potential. It's still early and revisions will have to be made as others appear on the scene.
Classic Pedigrees in alphabetical order;
Alpha
Done Talking
Dullahan
Empire Way
Fly Lexis Fly
Fort Loudon
Gemologist.....minus the other, this is my pick to win the derby as of now.
Junebugred
Motor City
My Adonis
Power...........if this one comes to the party he would be my pick right now.
Reckless Jerry
Seve
Souper Speedy
Union Rags
In addition are some that I think can be brilliant up to 1 1/8 but doubt the derby distance.
Currency Swap
El Padrino
Hansen
Hunt Crossing
Reveron
This is only a partial listing. There are some that may be off the trail or whatever because I am not up to date on a lot of things. As they weed themselves out a lot will be dropped and some picked up. These are selected strictly on pedigree but when playing performance must be considered.
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