Sires of Derby Winners

I don't wish to appear arrogant or to say that I know more than anyone else, but it seems there are very few experts that have been able to point out KY Derby winners with any consistency by pedigree analysis. In my case, on various websites, I have touted Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Big Brown, and Animal Kingdom. I liked hard Spun even though he couldn't quite do it. I didn't pick him to win but I had Mine That Bird on my derby list. Having those horses on my lists as horses that could get the derby distance, I feel that my approach has more than a little merit.

Having said that, I'd like to point out a few statistics; Since 1940 there have been only 5 sires that have sired more than one derby winner. In 40 and 45 Sir Gallahad sired the winners. The years of 41 and 47 saw Blenheim II do the trick. Bull Lea sired the winners in 48,52,57. Bold Bidder's sons did it in 74 and 79. Halo colts won in 83 and 89 followed by sons of Maria's Mon in 2001 and 2010.

In assessing the value of these stats one must keep in mind that in years past a very few, relative to today, breeding operations controlled the best stallions and had full control as to what mares would be covered. In fact, during my formative years in racing, Calumet Farms won no less than 7 Derby's between 1941 and 1958. We have to take into account that in the fifties there were only about 5-7,000 foals born in a year, while today, there are 25-30,000 born and I think there was a year in the recent past when over 37,000 were foaled.

This means that the pool of stallions available today is huge compared to years past. When Nearco sired Nearartic and Nasrullah a totally new era was ushered in. Through Northern Dancer, probably the most influential sire of modern times, and his siblings and offspring a whole line or family was established. Another stallion who made his mark is Mr Prospector, and since his dam was sired by a son of Nasrullah, we have Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector basically in the same family. Since that time the offspring of those two stallions have been just about completely inbred.

Half the horses at the yearling and 2 yr old sales have pedigrees dominated by Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector. In fact, I would estimate that 90% of all the good stallions standing today can be traced back to Phalaris by way of Nearco. Since these stallions are all virtually of the same blood lines, I contend that it doesn't make too much difference who the stallion is. A derby winner can be sired by just about any one of them.

Why do I say that? Because breeding operations try to keep tight control of the mares that are covered by their stallions. The money is in the stud side of the game simply because a stallion can cover as many as 150 mares in a year but a mare can produce only one foal. Years ago, when the breeding was controlled by a select few, those breeders would not let a foal leave the farm if it wasn't a good one. Every effort is made to insure that their stallions are only seen in the best light. And yet, they all know that the success of the stallion is determined by the mares he covers.

Breeders with mares try to send them to stallions with the best racing records that are affordable. Nobody breeds from stallions who were no good on the track, some were just better than others but that doesnt make them better at stud. For example; Nashau was a champion and yet never sired much in the way of runners but his daughters did. The great Mr Prospector was out of a Nashua mare. Big Red himself was not much as a sire but his daughters dropped some really good ones.

The pipeline to the foal is through the females. I won't go into genetic codes and such here but it is my firm belief that it is the females AND where they are placed in the pedigree that makes the difference. When I look at a pedigree I don't look at individuals and their racing records. There have been many good horses that were out of unraced mares. I don't favor any particular sires because there are any number of them that can produce a Derby winner. If just about any decent stallion is put on a mare that puts the females in favorable positions to transfer the best qualities to the foal a champion can be had.

At any rate, I'll leave it at that for now and give you my list of Derby prospects. I have dropped some because of various reasons. Some seem destined for the turf and others are just not racing to their potential. It's still early and revisions will have to be made as others appear on the scene.

Classic Pedigrees in alphabetical order;

Alpha
Done Talking
Dullahan
Empire Way
Fly Lexis Fly
Fort Loudon
Gemologist.....minus the other, this is my pick to win the derby as of now.
Junebugred
Motor City
My Adonis
Power...........if this one comes to the party he would be my pick right now.
Reckless Jerry
Seve
Souper Speedy
Union Rags

In addition are some that I think can be brilliant up to 1 1/8 but doubt the derby distance.

Currency Swap
El Padrino
Hansen
Hunt Crossing
Reveron

This is only a partial listing. There are some that may be off the trail or whatever because I am not up to date on a lot of things. As they weed themselves out a lot will be dropped and some picked up. These are selected strictly on pedigree but when playing performance must be considered.