In the Smarty Jones I gave 4 horses and 3 of them ran 1-2-3
In the Holy Bull I gave 4 and 3 of them ran 1-2-3
In the LeComte I gave 4 and one of them won.
Today;
In the Withers I gave 4 and one scratched and I had the winner w/a 44/1 shot second.
In the Sam Davis I gave 4 + 2 long shots and 1 of the LS won and beat my top 2.
In the R. Lewis I gave 4 and 2 of them ran 1-2 with a 44/1 shot on top beating my first choice for an $800. ex.
I got sidetracked a little in the Sam Davis because instead of sticking with my pedigrees all the way I got a little influenced by the trainers and put 2 in that I shouldn't have. All in all, a helluva nice day!
Newsletter #5 Sat. 2/4/12
The Withers
AQU Race 9 2/4/12
This race is sort of a rerun of the Count Fleet that Alpha took. In that race I had Alpha and Speightscity as my pedigree horses and they are still my best bred in this race.
If you recall I said before the Count Fleet that Alpha's race in the BC was hard to understand. He had run second to the leading contender Union Rags in his previous race and yet he got no betting action at all in the BC which led me to believe that something was wrong and someone knew it. Alpha redeemed himself in the Count Fleet and looks to be the one to beat in here.
Speightscity has a beautiful pedigree but it's my belief that his training has been faulty. It looks to me that his form is ass- backwards in that, when he looks like he should run good he doesn't and vise-versa. I'm going to give him another chance for the money and maybe he will wake up. Perhaps he will never run to his pedigree but there is still time for him to turn it around.
Swag Daddy has an interesting pedigree. He's got a nice record running in NY state bred races but moves up here. What's interesting about him is his dam sire line is sort of almost extinct as far as there being any sires to carry on the line. It's unusual nowadays to see a pedigree with Damascus so close up. This is the line from the great Teddy and as I said, Teddy's sire line has all but disappeared except for a few in South America. I think this one may be able to run all day and I'll be interested to see if he has the talent to compete with the best.
Hakama has a nice pedigree being inbred to Norther Dancer on the sire's side and also having Damascus on the tail. He has a few things going for him; he has a lot of speed and his breeding says he should be able to carry it a long way, has a win over the track and I recall a good one recently taking this route.
This race may come down to whether anyone can catch Hakama and it might be Alpha.
1- Alpha
2- Hakama
3- Swag Daddy
4- Speightscity
The Robert B. Lewis
Santa Anita Sat. 2/4/12
This race could be a rerun of the Cash Call Fut. We have 4 of the first 5 finishers back in this race. It seems to me that the CC race must have had a very fast pace regardless of what the numbers might say. There were 2 horses, Drill and Handsome Mike, dueling for the lead all the way into the stretch. What makes me think they were going pretty fast is that Majestic City, who is very fast, couldn't keep pace with those two.
The first 5 finishers all came from off the pace. Laison was only a few lengths back and got the jump on the others. So, I suppose the question is, what kind of pace will we see this time. There are 3 horses in here with a lot of speed so we may get a duel but I have an idea that only one is going to really shoot for the lead. We may also see a closer or two try to get closer to the pace.
There are several in this one with nice pedigrees and the ones I like are, Empire Way, Liaison, Sky Kingdom and I'll Have Another. Since this race looks like any one of them could win I'm just playing by pedigree. Just looks to be a very contentious race and not a place to place a big bet. Best to fool around with some exotic boxes.
1- Empire Way
2- Sky Kingdom
3- Liaison
4- I'll Have Another
The Sam Davis
Tampa Bay Sat. 2/4/12
This looks to be the most interesting race this week. There are a lot of possibilities in this race and maybe a chance for a big exotic. There are some nicely bred horses here but I think the best one at this time is Reveron although I don't really think he will get the Derby distance. As I've often said, there are a lot of pedigrees that may be brilliant up to 1 1/8 but encounter trouble trying to get that extra 1/8 and that's what I think will happen with Reveron.
Prospective is one that looks to be able to handle the classics and has had a nice tune up by winning the Pasco. He may have a little trouble here with the outside post. He does have a little speed but the jock is going to have to work a trip to get him into contention. State Of Play has a nice pedigree but I would like to see some dirt form before I make a decision on him. He does have some speed and was hampered by the extreme outside post in the BC but if he takes to dirt he might be a threat.
The real speed in here is Pletcher's colt Ecabroni and we know that he has his charges ready at this time of year. I don't like his breeding for the classics but this is not a classic and speed is always dangerous. I expect to see him get a lot of action but I want some value before I back one stretching out against some good ones.
Burning Time is an interesting colt with the Damascus dam sire line. He should love a distance and be very durable but this race may be a tad short for him. Has a big late, late move so could fill the bottom of the exotics.
Battle Hardened is another that is well bred and has already ran a good one at 1 1/8. Neck'n Neck ran second last time to highly regarded Discreet Dancer so should be a contender off his form. I'm still undecided about his pedigree but again, this race is not a classic. This race is usually won by something running up near the front but there may be a battle for the lead so we can't discount a closer winning this one.
1- Reveron
2- Prospective
3- Neck'n Neck
4- Ecabroni
Long shots - Battle Hardened and Burning time
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