The Smarty Jones
For some years now the Derby preps at Oaklawn Park have been making their mark on the Triple Crown picture. Of course we know that Smarty himself took this route to the derby and we had some good ones like Archarcharch follow in his footsteps.
This race is just the first in a series but perhaps one will step up and make his/her presence felt in the coming months. Of course all eyes are on the FL and CA races where the top dogs are right now, especially in the barns of Baffert and Pletcher, but make no mistake, some good ones can come from Oaklawn and the Fairgrounds.
This is an interesting race in that a filly will probably be the favorite. There are some nicely bred 3 yr olds in here but so far I haven't seen any performances to match the pedigrees.
As for the performance side of it, the filly On Fire Baby has already nailed down two grade 2 filly races in a row although her Beyer's are not very high. She always seems to bring her best game to the track and has really been working well.
Another who looks really tough to me is Optimizer who had started out on the turf winning his maiden race and followed that up with a good second in a grade 2 on the grass. Then tried the poly in the Breeders Fut. and was a close third to Dullahan in that grade 1 but then had a bad start in the Breeders Cup. Came back in a grade 2 at CD and was only beaten a couple lengths by Gemologist who I have as one of my top derby picks right now. The only knock I have against him in this race is that all his races have been at 1 1/16 and he drops back to a mile here which wouldn't be too bad except that he likes to come from way out of it.
The two mentioned above are the only ones in here that have had a decent showing in a graded race,so as far as what they have shown so far they should be the ones to beat.
The horses that have pedigrees that I like are Junebugred, Prince Cheval, Copus, Hard Nosed, Reckless Jerry and King Coral. The problem is that none of those have stepped up to the plate yet. There are a couple that have run well but against much cheaper company and against statebreds.
One that does look interesting is Junebugred. A nicely bred colt that went off as chalk in his first race and didn't run bad and came back to win at AQU at this distance. Has changed trainers and Bravo comes in for the ride. Looks like a lot of room for improvement with this guy.
Having 6 very nicely bred colts in this one could make for a surprise but at this point I've got to temper pedigree with performance to this point.
1- # 6 Optimizer....has faced the best of this group so far...got closer to the pace last time and might be able to shorten up here.
2- # 10 On Fire Baby...seems to be the one to beat.
3- #2 Junebugred...might be a lot of upside with him.
4- #12 Reckless Jerry...hasn't run a bad one yet but post may hinder.
The rest of the race is up for grabs.
Recap:
A very clever ride by Bravo slipping through on the rail and saved ground all the way. This one may have a future and I'd love to see him take Joey to the derby.
Reckless Jerry was full of run and the jock worked a good trip despite the bad post. Is very steady and has yet to throw a clunker.
I'd say that the connections of the filly, who ran a game race, were a little too ambitious. Keep her with the fillies because there are an awful lot of really well bred colts this year.
Optimizer just didn't fire. He probably needs more distance but I think he has run some decent races simply because he was a little more advanced in his development than most of his opponents. And once again pedigree proves to be best!
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