From Newsletter...The LeComte

The LeComte

The first prep stakes on the derby trail at the Fair Grounds is Sat. 1/21/12. It looks to be a slightly better field than the Smarty Jones in that there are more in here that have already run in a graded race.

I found some nice pedigrees in here, nothing earth shattering mind you, but some good ones. One thing in common with the Smarty race is that the winner of that one was out of a mare by a son of Northern Dancer and the one I like in here is bred the same way.
Going down the line up; Ted's Folly is on a 6 race roll and sure knows how to win. I don't often see a pedigree like his. Inbred to the Nearco line everywhere but the tail G. Dam which is an out cross with the Damascus line and he is down from one of my favorites, Teddy. I don't have much to reference with out crosses with the tail g.dam. The ones I like are crossed out with the dam sire line but this horse is showing he likes to win and that Teddy line tells me he should be able to run all day and into tomorrow. The question is, is he fast enough, especially at this distance in this company.
Mr Bowling has a nice pedigree but it's probably just a cut below the best types. He was highly regarded in the Iroquois but was beaten by Motor City who is a colt I'm kind of high on this year, a very strong closer.

Exfactor is also on a roll having won 3 straight, one of which was a G3, but they were all sprints. A nice pedigree for this distance but I find that a lot of nice colts with a lot of Mr Prospector females in their pedigree are often brilliant up to 1 1/8, so is dangerous in here.

Dan And Sheila has a pedigree type that is erratic for me. On occasion I will see a really good one but at this point I don't know where this one is going. Started out with a win at a mile which is always a good sign but I'll hold off on this one for awhile.

Z Dager looks like he's bred for the marathons. He also just broke his maiden at a distance so he could be a runner also.Seven Lively Sins has breeding I like. Those Bold Ruler females turn me on and I like that combined with the Mr P dam sire line.

Hammers Terror seems like a nice one but I find his pedigree hard to decipher so even though he's won 2 in a row I don't know where he's going from here.

Capetown Devil has the kind of pedigree that when they are good they can be very good. Evidently they were not too high on him initially because he made his first start in a claimer. I wouldn't know for sure but am inclined to think he surprised the connections. He has since moved up and stretched out and improved with each race. He seems to be fast and getting faster although he hasn't done it against graded company yet. He may be over matched here but I can recall other good ones that started in a claimer. One that comes to mind was the great filly Silver Spoon who made her first start in a claimer and ended up running 4th in the derby and had a stellar career.

  
So, I have several reasons to like this one; the pedigree is good, he looks to be fast and one of the first rules I learned in racing was not to bet against an unbeaten horse.

  
Shared property started out like a house on fire and in his second start won a grade 3 where he out kicked some decent ones, including Motor City. Wasn't that far back in the BC passing 4 horses in the stretch. I'm not entirely sold on his pedigree and I usually don't care for horses that run farther off the pace as they move up in class. He should be coming at the end but I think his post and lack of early speed may give him a little too much to do.

1- #10  Capetown Devil... jock will have to work a trip...may have enough tactical speed to get position.

2- #6  Seven Lively Sins...like the breeding...has speed and tried off the pace in last..may improve off that.

3- #5  Exfactor...has been sprinting but pedigree suggests he can handle this distance...on a roll.

4- #4  Mr Bowling....next to last was nice...been working like a demon.

5- #2  Dan And Shelia...good potential...may need a little more seasoning..but this is Pletcher.

2b and 11 will be coming and a lot depends on what the speed does.

Long Shot  #3  Ted's Folly

Recap

   Regardless of what the numbers might say, (I haven't seen any yet), I think the pace in this race was slow. I say this because of two reasons. One is that the 2 horses running up front looked to be kind of cheap to me but the #1 actually held on pretty good to the end. The other is that I really didn't think the #2b, Z Dager would be that close to the pace unless Pletcher gave orders to send him because the other half of the entry, Dan And Shelia was reserved well off the pace.

   I also think Sellers could have won the race had he ducked to the rail as they turned for home. For some reason the head on view is not available for that race but it looked to me that there was an opening on the rail for a brief moment but I could be wrong about that.

   Shared Property made a good run but hung near the end and was passed by Z Dager once that one found room. The horse that impressed me most was Dan And Shelia with that big closing kick. He ran into trouble in the first turn and was at the rear for most of the race. If the pace was slow, as I think it was, he made a great run and will probably appreciate a longer distance.

   Because of a lack of quality speed in this race I don't feel the race as a whole was very impressive.