I've been a little slow getting around to this because I hadn't decided yet whether Animal Kingdom lost because he was beat by a better horse or for another reason. I have watched the rerun about 25 times and watched it in slow motion also.
AK got off a little slow but had a chance to move up between horses but JR took him back and over to the rail. The thing is that AK had demonstrated in his previous races that he could run just off the pace. In his third race back in a 1 mile race on the turf he was only 1 length of the lead after 3/4 that went in 1:10/4. In his Spiral win he was only 2 lengths off the pace after 3/4 that was run in 1:12/2 on the poly. In his maiden win he ran 2nd for 3/4 before taking the lead. This horse has clearly shown he can run on the pace.
In the KY derby he was a little farther back but never more than 6 lengths. Another point is that he had always run in full fields of 10-12 horses. By dropping him back 20 lengths JR just gave him too much to do. JR claims that AK didn't like the dirt in his face and that's why he kept him back so far. My question is; if he didn't like dirt in his face how come it didn't bother him when he was asked to run? Also, instead of dropping back out of the race to avoid dirt why didn't he just take him to the outside and move up closer? I have known of lots of horses over the years that wouldn't take dirt but the jocks were usually instructed to run wide to avoid it, not drop out of the race. Personally, I think JR is totally and absolutely FULL OF SHIT!
He just can't man up to the fact that he totally misjudged the pace that started quick but just as quickly slowed down. The thing that impressed me most about AK was the fact that, in spite of a terrible ride, he damn near won anyway. Some may think I'm being unfair to JR but this guy has never been good on closers and I think he's way over rated as a jock. If he wasn't hooked up with Pletcher he would just be another ordinary jock in my book. And, he is so use to running on the front end with most of Pletcher's horses he doesn't know how to close. Alright, I'm ranting about him and you may not agree but think about this: Zenyatta won 19 in a row coming from way out of it. In order to do that the rides must be judged perfectly. She won lots of races by a head or so. Mike Smith always got her there in time and if he had been on AK the race wouldn't even have been close. Of course this is my opinion and I'll stick with it. If they ride JR back on AK in the Belmont they are crazy.
Now that I've vented about why I think the best horse got beat I'd like to mention something else. In a previous post I had talked about the fact that there were only 10% of over 300 contenders this year that were Phalaris out-crosses and 3 had made it into the derby. There were 2 more that made it into the Preakness for a total of 5. To me that's amazing! Counting 1 that ran in the derby but not the Preakness comes out to 6 horses getting there out of thirty. That means those 6 were better than more than 270 contenders for the triple crown. Simply amazing!
I didn't have them in exact order but I had 8 of my horses in the top 9 in the race. I didn't have Shack way up on the list but I had the 11,1,and 8 up there. This was basically just pedigree handicapping. I always had doubts about Dialed In getting the distance although he ran a decent race. One horse I knew couldn't get , not even 1 1/8 was Sway Away. I never understood all the action on a horse that never won anything. Another that I felt pretty sure didn't belong was Midnight. Oh well, I guess it's on to the Belmont which may be a very interesting race if Master Of Hounds and Alternation show up.
Backstretch
Backstretch,
ReplyDeleteI agree somewhat about the ride of JV...the dirt in the face excuse is lame. And, AK is obviously a nice horse. Shack ran a heck of a race, and actually has a good bit of stamina underneath. Unbridled, in particular, his damsire, his been the sire, damsire or 3rd sire of a few notable Belmont Winners: Grindstone, Birdstone, Summer Bird.
I will admit, however, that he is kind of a Hard Spun-lite. In fact, if you take HS's fractions from his 3rd in the Preakness to Curlin and SS and his final time (and BSF) you will find he ran several lengths faster than Shack and still finished 3rd in 2007. So, to me the entire crop is rather mediocre. AK is still on top to me, and simply had too much to do.
Having said that, AK is perfect for the Belmont with all that stamina underneath. And it is a race for speed and gallopers. Remember Woody Stephens said one run closers need not apply. AK has shown the ability to be tractable. I hope whatever jock is on him can give him a Summer Bird kind of ride.
Otherwise, Shack may pull another Da'Tara on the field. There are no big late moves on the Belmont second turn. BTW, Jazil was bred speed on top and stamina underneath, kind of like Shack. Different running styles...if you look at the pedigree As a whole...and not just at Sack's sire, it begins to make a little sense.
If another person marvels how they never thought Forestry could get a classic winner I am going to PUKE! It's the mare he was bred to (and her sire) that helped carry Shack over the wire.
Agreed! I get tired of trying to impress the importance of the females in pedigrees. Evidently some have never heard of chromosomes.
ReplyDeleteTesio had a theory on "nervous energy", an abundance of which he attributes to being the source of willpower in top-class racehorses. Horses, he says are able to consume their nervous energy due to being placed under great stress, such as when raced heavily. This phenomenon helps explain why superior mares often do not produce superior offspring, likewise "many of the horses conventionally characterised by great energy and speed are offspring of females that have never raced, raced very little or for only short distances" (Tesio). However, this energy, he explains, can be recaptured within a generation or two of a pedigree. This is the (2f) female family of Round Table, Pebbles, Tappiano, Gone West, Known Fact, El Greco, Unfuwain, Balzac, and Aureole. Foundation mare Aloe.
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