I was hoping there might be some more speed in this race but there doesn't seem to be anything that can run with Shackleford. There are a couple with a little speed but nothing to speak of. In addition, even if there is one with enough speed to put a little pressure on Shack, it's doubtful if anyone wants to sacrifice themselves in a speed duel. So what does this say about the race? They are going to have to catch Shack again.
There has been a lot of speculation about the track on Derby day. Some say the slow fractions in the race were slow because of the track. I have a couple of questions concerning that. One is, if the track was so slow that day then how come just about every horse in it got the highest speed rating of their life? It's my opinion that Shack slowed the pace to a crawl and that's the reason the closers, except Animal Kingdom, had so much trouble trying to close. Luckily for Nehro, Nakatani realized how slow they were going and sent Nehro up after Shack but taken out of his element he couldn't hold off Animal in spite of the slow pace. If the pace hadn't been so slow Nehro would never have been chasing the leader so early.
We had almost the same situation in the preakness with Shack controlling the pace again. The difference was that Animal Kingdom had a terrible trip, thanks to JR. Shack stalked the sprinter and when that one folded he was able to back the pace down and with the others so far back Shack managed to hold on.
Here's how I see it; Shack will again go to the lead and slow the pace down. AK and MOH will try to be closer this time and will probably catch him because I don't believe Shack can get the distance of this race unless allowed to go really slow early.
I believe there has been a total misinterpretation of the Derby and Preakness by the numbers guys. Any horse that has a natural high cruising speed that is on the lead and allowed to throttle down is going to be hard to catch. Shack is a horse with a high cruising speed and is a push button horse in that, he can back the pace down when asked and step it right up when the pedal is put to the metal.
In the derby Shack was allowed to slow the pace to a crawl after 6f, and as Nakattani said, if he tried to hold Nehro back any longer he would have probably stopped from being strangled. It matters not what the numbers boys think, the only ones who know if they are ggoing fast or slow are the horses themselves and Nehro said,"We're going too damned slow!". So Shack, in spite of how much he slowed down, and the fact that Nehro who was out of his element being up on the pace, was still able to get by Shack at the end.
In the Preakness, the race started fast but as soon as the sprinter folded and Shack inherited the lead he backed the pace right down again. In both the Derby and Preakness, most of the jocks who were on closers were bound and determined to come from way off the pace come hell or high water. It was to Animal Kingdom's credit that he was able to sustain such a long drive to win the race.
There has always been a lot of talk about the ability of jocks to judge pace and I think those two races show that most can't really tell how fast the race is being run. They were all faked out in the Preakness when the race started so fast and then they didn't realize how much it was being slowed down until it was too late. This was another example of how good the Animal is because, in spite of how far back he was, he damned near won it anyway. Any decent jock can win on the front end with a high cruising push button horse but it takes a real judge of pace to bring a horse home from off the pace. This is why I give a lot of credit to Mike Smith for the enormous success of Zenyatta. He may have slightly misjudged once in awhile but he always managed to get her there in time. This just tells me what a superb jock Mike is, probably the best since Howard Grant and Eddie D. I sincerely believe if Mike was on the Animal he would be virtually unbeatable.
My pedigree horses are Animal Kingdom, Master Of Hounds, Macho Man,Santiva and Stay Thirsty. Nehro has been getting there but I really have my doubts about him getting the distance. Macho Man seems to have run his best races already and is just a tad below the best of these. Stay Thirsty is nicely bred but has yet to show the kind of speed needed.
My selections are;
Animal Kingdom...has shown he can be put into a drive a long way and is the one to beat.
Master Of Hounds....in most of his races has been able to track the leaders..has a great pedigree and can take it all with a good trip.
Santiva...pedigree says he can get this distance...is able to run closer to the pace but was another victimized by the slow pace in the derby...I think he is sitting on a big race...this is my long shot upset possibility
Nehro...don't care too much for his breeding but has been getting close so I can't discount him.
Shackleford...if he's able to control the pace and slow it down enough he can hang in for a piece.
I will use AK in the top 3 positions in the exotics with the other 4 under and over him.
9/1,4,6,12.....1,4,6,12/9/1,4,6,12.....1,4,6,12/1,4,6,12/9
Backstretch
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