KY DERBY BETS

   This is such a wide open race it's hard to zero in. The biggest problem is not knowing how some of these that have never raced on dirt will take to it.
   As you know I handicap these type races basically by pedigree. I then try to incorporate each horse's performances to date. I don't use speed figures as a means of separation but only as a means to tell me if the horse is going to run well today. The pedigree tells me the potential of the horse if all things are equal.
   Post position and jockeys play a big part in these races and we have no way of telling how the race is going to play out as to running positions and trouble encountered. We can only hope that everyone has a good trip and nothing crazy happens.
   Everyone is always concerned, as they should be, about the speed in the race. In this race there is quite a bit of speed but there are only a couple that I expect to hang in there past a mile. In fact the couple I see with speed that could hang in there may try to rate off the early leaders.

These are my pedigree horses. What it means is that I believe these horses are bred for the distance and are always possible winners. As in the caase with Mine That Bird, he was one of 6 pedigree horses I had and was probably the least likely but he won anyway. Some that I list today may not look fast enough to win but it seems that as long as the horse is able to get the distance he has a shot.

Master of Hounds....outstanding breeding..big question, can he handle dirt?

Archarcharch....excellent pedigree...at least we know what he can do.

Watch Me Go...this may surprise many but there have been 3 derby winners in the past 13 yrs with comparable breeding...doesn't seem fast enough but one never knows.

Santiva....Another that is bred for the classic distances....has shown flashes and likes CD.

The following horses are hard to separate because there are some gray areas but the pedigrees are OK.

Dialed In
Midnight Interlude
Stay Thirsty
Brilliant Speed
Soldat
Animal Kingdom....this one could probably be placed anywhere on the list.

I will be using all of the pedigree horses in some kind of exotic play with the top two.

My selections:
#1-- Archarcharch....I know he has a bad post but I believe he is quick enough from the gate to not get buried on the rail...the next 3 outside of him are are not that quick

Bet #1---ex wheel ....1/all....all/1

Bet #2---tri part wheel all 3 positions with the 1 w/8,13,15,17

BET #3---tri...1,11,16/1,11,16/all

That's all the bets I can give because my paid clients are upset already about me blogging my picks.

Good Luck,
Backstretch