Rebel Stakes 2016

Rebel Stakes 2016

This race, though not having any really high profile runners, looks to be a nice betting opportunity.A full field of 14 and at this point in time, no really outstanding runner although there's lots of potential floating around.

One must start somewhere so I am eliminating almost half the field on pedigree alone. This is not to say one of those I eliminate can't win because this is only 8 1/2f and it doesn't take a lot of pedigree to get this distance.

The colts who Have the pedigrees I prefer are, in no particular order; Cupid, Siding Spring, Madtap, Z Royal, Gray Sky, Whitmore and Suddebreakingnews. The good news about this is the possibility of catching a long shot or a big exotic.

The one whose breeding I really like is Suddenbreakingnews. He looks to be a tough customer who, but for a nose and a neck, would be undefeated. Although he looks like a stone closer at first glance, he did wire them in his maiden win at a mile and was only a couple lengths off a 44 half in a sprint. I don't know how many thousands and thousands of races I've handicapped in all my years but one thing I noticed a long time ago has to do with running style and class. For instance, it seems to me that a lot of these horses are able to lead or sit right on the pace in their maiden races but as they try to move up in class they start to come from farther and farther off the pace unless they are truly class horses themselves. There are rare closing horses that can come from way out of it and be very consistent, as in Zenyatta and some other greats over the years. Then there are some that can't win unless conditions and race shape favor their style. So, this race to me, is going to put Sudden to the test. If he can unleash another run as he did last time and get there or very close from this outside post I think we will have a serious derby contender.

Cupid is well bred but light on experience but it's hard to ignore any Baffert colt on this track. They have been high on this one but he is also a May foal and may have some catching up to do.

I have a hard time figuring out Casse because he gets some really nice horses but they always seem to disappoint. Siding Spring has a very nice pedigree and has shown some signs but has yet to live up to his breeding. I don't think he wanted the lead in the Southwest but was forced to leave in a hurry from the outside. He seemed to be a little rank to me and was pulling Rocco along. He was stalked by American Dubai and both stayed on quite well after what looked to be a fast pace. I think he may run big with a stalking position.

Whitmore does have some speed but ran into trouble in his last and then made a big move only to be caught at the end by Sudden. Ortiz is in to ride and with Whitmore coming up to his 3rd race for Moquett, who is a very live trainer here, this one is dangerous.

There are 2 entries in the race and I'm going for it with the horse killer Lukas's pair. I really like the pedigree of Z Royal and I don't know how much his early trouble in his last cost him. I feel like his blinkers off is going to help rate a little. I'm curious about the jock switch because Geroux has won with this one but rides the other half of the entrie and he is an excellent jock. The other half is Gray Sky who has already beaten Madtap who came out of that race and ran big for Asmussen.

This is a wide open race with a lot of possibilities so I'm trying to sneak a long one in.

1- #12  Suddenbreakingnews...really hoping he's the real deal and runs like Ribot who he's inbred to.

2- #4  Cupid..for 2 reasons..his pedigree and Baffert

3- #6  Siding Spring...just think he's better than he looks on paper

4-  #10  Whitmore...good form and live connections

Long Shot  #2 entry...bred too nice to ignore at big odds

Backstretch

Tampa Bay Derby 2016

Tampa Bay Derby

As far as pedigrees, this group doesn't impress me very much. I don't get a good read on most of this field but there are always a few that fool me and run better than I thought they would. For sure, I'm looking down the road at the derby distance and beyond so that doesn't preclude any of these getting the shorter distances with no problem.

I do like the pedigree of Destin because I've seen a lot of this type become very tough at any distance. The two probable choices in here are both sired by Giant's Causeway who is the inbred type who matches up with a lot of mares. I like Destin over Brody's Cause because of the tail side with his dam being Dream Of Summer who was pretty good herself and brings the In Reality line into the inbred lines of the sire.

In Brody's Cause I like the inbreeding to all 3 of Nearco's greatest sons. I would have thought this one would have had more speed but he looks like he wants to lay back. He sure looks like he wants more distance. Also, he's been off since last Oct. so he may need this race. He probably only needs to run third to have enough points to make the derby and he would be pretty fresh for that so I'm thinking he won't be cranked up too tight for this but I do like the bullet he worked a month ago.

I'm not in love with Rafting's pedigree but it is nice enough to do the job. I do like, as I've mentioned elsewhere, the fact of a lot of good horses turning up lately with some close breeding to Royal Charger through his son Turn To and this guy's female side is full of Turn To.

Morning Fire is nicely bred but has been doing a lot of sprinting. He's already started 9 times and only his last has been over a mile but he's never been off the board. I am just wondering if he can or will be rated a little. There looks to be a lot of speed in here and trying to steal this seems to be wishful thinking.

This race looks like it's setting up to favor someone coming from off the pace but sometimes the jocks fool us and themselves when nobody wants to go to the front. They get so afraid of getting caught in a speed duel that everybody hangs back and, without really intending to, someone finds themselves on the lead and nobody chasing. Jock strategy can fool us a lot and make for upsets.

1- #7  Destin  9/2..only question I have is, did JR pick Outwork over this one?
2- #2  Rafting  6/1
3- #8  Brody's Cause  5/2
4- #1  Morning Fire  15/1
Long Shot  #9  Tale of S'avall  #9  12/1..simply because of his breeding..
Backstretch

Gotham 2016

Gotham Stakes - 2016

This is not a bad field but I don't think the derby winner is in here. They all have decent pedigrees but there are some out there on the trail that are much better.

Shagaf is the favorite and is nicely bred and has won both his starts for Chad Brown who is getting some very nice ones in recent years. Shagaf hasn't met any graded horses yet but is highly regarded.

Sunny Ridge doesn't have the type of breeding that jumps out at you and it's a little hard to decipher but that hasn't stopped him from being right there when asked. He's only been worse than second once and that was in a sprint last year. He's had 6 starts and someone missed the boat when he was entered in a claimer in his first start. Don't let that fool you because there have been some great ones that came out of claimers. I remember the great filly Silver Spoon way back in 1958. She was entered in a claimer in her first start and ended up running fifth in the Ky Derby and is in the HOF.

Conquest Big E, a son of Tapit, is a nice mix of Bold Ruler and Mr P and went for some big bucks at the sale. The thing I have against him is that trainer Casse, through a couple of loaded clients, gets some really nice ones but they never seem to live up to their potential. They seldom show up when it looks like they should. This one has been up against some tough ones but has yet to score in a graded race.

Adventist had some problems in the Withers against Sunny Ridge and has some room to improve off that.

Rally Cry is one of two that Pletcher has in here. Both are nicely bred but he has Mo Power entered tomorrow so I don't know if that one will be scratched or not. I had mentioned elsewhere that Pletcher is taking a different route to the derby this year so we don't know if it will work out or not. Usually by this time his horses are dominating the prep races but not this year, so far anyway. Rally Cry ran into trouble last time against Shag but could be a lot closer today.

1- #7  Sunny Ridge..I'll stick with him here because he always shows up for the dance.
2- #2  Shagaf..may be best but I want to see it before jumping all over him.
3-  #6  Conquest Big E..just because of the company he's been keeping
4-  #3  Adventist...could be dangerous with a good trip
Long Shots - Rally Cry and Mo Power...neither of these look to be a Zulu but there is no Mohaymen in here either..Pletcher usually brings them out running.

Backstretch

Fountain of Youth

Five years ago I posted a blog about out crossing where I said I hoped there would be more of it done after what we saw with Animal Kingdom. In the ensuing years I have noticed more and more out crossed horses on the TC trail. Out crossed horses are designated on Chef-de-Race.com  as NP/P or P/NP where the P stands for Phalaris and NP as Non Phalaris. This is designated through the sire and damsire lines by those who do this work. However, I take a slightly different tack being that I go back farther and I also look for the cross to be in specific spots in the pedigree.

In addition, I look for another step in the process which involves bringing the out cross back into the original INBRED line. Personally, I don't believe a cross works unless it is used with very inbred lines.

So, to get to the race at hand; The favorite, Mohaymen, is sired by Tapit and has the cross of In Reality, which is the old Man O' War line, brought in as the maternal G. dam sire line. He also has another pattern of Northern Dancer/Turn To which is a good sign.

Awesome Speed and Awesome Banner also have the same cross of In Reality which is also the maternal G. dam sire line. Probably a toss up with these two but I lean a little to Awesome Speed.

Zulu is another in here that has an out cross by way of the maternal G dam but this line is the old Hyperion line. This is a great long distance line and I think Vaguely Noble won the "Arc". He also has another pattern of Nearctic/Nasrullah which is very good. This is a superbly bred colt. It looks as though Pletcher is taking a different route to the derby this year and it's probably better than his prior method. Problem is, it's asking a lot for this colt to be taking on experienced horses like Mohaymen off two sprints. I have an idea this one will rate and may give the favorite fits.

I can't see any value in this race but it should be fun to watch.

1- #6  Mohaymen  6/5
2-  #2  Zulu  3/1
3-  #4  Awesome Speed  4/1
4-  #5  Awesome Banner  7/2

Backstretch

Risen Star 2016

The Risen Star  2016

FG  2/20/16  R11

Is this the year of the Mo? Uncle Mo has started off his stud career with a bang. This race had 4 entries sired by Uncle Mo but Laoban has opted out leaving three which happen to be the leading contenders in here.

On the other hand the ML favorite is by the very old sire line of Man O' War which has all but died out. My data base is only in my head and the recall button isn't working very well these days, but aside from Col John, the sire of Airoforce, the last really good one from this line was Gemologist who was undefeated after 5 races.

Airoforce has a nice pedigree but he has no Northern Dancer cross as did the afore mentioned two. However, he happens to be more inbred to the old line. I really like him but am a little concerned about the recent set-back he had when he was forced to skip the Sam Davis because of a breathing problem. Hopefully he's fully recovered. He's only lost once, by a neck, so until they beat him, I'll stick with him.

There are only 5 in here that I don't think can get the derby distance. It's All Relevant has a nice pedigree but is one of those with the Mr P mares dominating and I've only seen one of this type get a classic distance and he was across the pond.

Mo Tom looks like the one to beat but he's one of those that comes from out of the clouds and may be prone to getting into traffic problems. There is speed in here which may provide some pace which is what he needs.

I think Tom's Ready has been out running his pedigree and unless he shows more I don't feel like he will advance in these preps..

Uncle Walter has classic breeding and has a lot of upside to him. Although he has a bad post I think his running style is the right one and JJ will manage to get good position and get the jump on the deep closers.

I've heard some good things about Gun Runner and he has the breeding to get it done. He made need a race so, although he may make a race of it, I think he will fall a little short.

One that I really like his pedigree is Dolphus. He doesn't have any numbers yet that would put him in the thick of it but has a lot of room to improve.

1- #10  Airoforce
2-  #12  Uncle Walter
3-  #2  Mo Tom
4-  #6  Gun Runner
Long Shot  #3  Dolphus...has been scratched so I will use #5 Forevamo as long shot


Backstretch

Holy Bull Stakes

GP  Sat.  1/30/16  R8

I haven't posted anything since the KY Derby last year due to health problems. I've decided to try to cover the TC preps and the TC races this year.
I handicap these races mostly by pedigree and some of these prep races are won by horses without my standard for the classic distances. A lot of horses have talent and can win these early preps but I am interested in watching the ones with classic breeding develop along the way.

As I figured would happen again, we have a short field with only a couple of real contenders.
Mohaymen has a really nice pedigree for the classic distances and seems to have the talent to go with it. Will be strong favorite, which he should be. Tapit colt went for over 2 mil and right now looks like he may have been worth it.

Conquest Big E also has the required breeding and Casse looks like he is about to have a strong year. This is another Tapit product but so far hasn't shown near the talent of the favorite.

Greenpointcrusader may have some ability but I don't care much for his pedigree. He may be OK in the shorter distances but I don't think he will like any thing over 1 1/8.

Of the rest, Frontier Ranger and Fellowship have the breeding for the longer races but so far haven't shown they are ready to compete at this level. One of them might improve enough to get a small piece but don't look to be a threat to the top two.

1- #2  Mohaymen
2- #4  Conquest Big E
3- #5  Greenpointcrusader

Doesn't look to be any value in this race at all, not even in the exotics, so I will just watch it.
Backstretch

KY Derby 2015

As most of you know I have certain pedigree patterns I use to determine if these horses can get the classic distance of the Derby and beyond. So the first thing I will do is eliminate horses that their breeding tells me they won't get those distances. The reason I use these patterns is that a very high percentage of Derby winners have these patterns in their pedigrees.

I am eliminating EL Kabeir, Firing Line, Danzig Moon, Ocho Ocho Ocho and Mr. Z. Not that these are not nice horses, but I just think they aren't Derby winning material.

American Pharoah presents me with a bit of a problem. He has a really mixed up pedigree where it is hard to tell where the influence is coming from. There are many horses bred every year with pedigrees that don't really point in any specific direction and the majority don't turn out to be much. Every now and then one clicks and is very good, so this guy, with what he has done and all the raves about him, just might be really good.

Except for the ones I have eliminated the rest of the field has patterns that I feel qualify them to win this race. There are a few that have pedigrees that I favor over the rest and there are some that look to be a little too slow to get there in time. Naturally, even if all had equal breeding, some will be faster than others.

The pedigrees I like best in here are Dortmund, International Star and Bolo. Dortmund has done all that has been asked of him so far. He is very fast and has shown a lot of grit in his races. International Star may seem a bit slow on the numbers but he looks to be getting faster with each race. He is a very determined and fearless little guy and when the races get to the classic distances it seems to be a different ball game. Bolo has a terrific pedigree but may be more geared to grass racing. He's tried dirt twice, both times running third to Dortmund, which is no disgrace. He may improve a little more.

Speaking of improvement, how about Frosted. They say he had a breathing problem which has been corrected. He really stepped up big time in the Wood and there is something else I like in his record. One of my very best pedigree horses of the year is Leave The Light On who I was really high on. LTLO won the Remsen which is a bit of a key race for the Derby but was injured and off the trail. Frosted ran a nice second in the Remsen and if he improves off the Wood will be very tough in this fracas.

Along with Frosted, Tencendur also stepped up in the Wood although I don't think the rest of the field amounted to much. Having said that, I don't think any of the preps have been more than two horse races with all those short fields. Like everybody was dodging any serious contenders.

I can't leave the little guy International Star out. His pedigree and guts tell me he belongs. Materiality may not have raced as a 2 yr old but I think he will play a part along with his stablemate Carp Diem.

So, I have two wild cards in the race. I would like to toss American Pharoah but must use him as sort of a saver. I wish I knew more about Mubtaahij other than watching him race. He has a lovely pedigree with Sea Bird as the dam sire, something quite rare in this country. He made a Hugh move in his last to win easily but there are those who question the company he beat. I would say, who did most of the others beat? As I already stated, most of these prep races were two horse races, if that.

I'm going with Dortmund to win and I will use him on top of my exotics and key him on top with American Pharoah and Mubtaahij.

1-#8  Dortmund
2- #15 Frosted
3- #2  Carp Diem
4- #12  International Star
Long Shots-#4 Tencendur
                 #3 Materiality
                 #9 Bolo

Bets- 8/15,2,12,/3,4,9
        8,18/8,18/15,2,12,/3,4,9
        8,6/8,6/15,2,12/3,4,9

Good Luck to all.