From Newsletter...The LeComte

The LeComte

The first prep stakes on the derby trail at the Fair Grounds is Sat. 1/21/12. It looks to be a slightly better field than the Smarty Jones in that there are more in here that have already run in a graded race.

I found some nice pedigrees in here, nothing earth shattering mind you, but some good ones. One thing in common with the Smarty race is that the winner of that one was out of a mare by a son of Northern Dancer and the one I like in here is bred the same way.
Going down the line up; Ted's Folly is on a 6 race roll and sure knows how to win. I don't often see a pedigree like his. Inbred to the Nearco line everywhere but the tail G. Dam which is an out cross with the Damascus line and he is down from one of my favorites, Teddy. I don't have much to reference with out crosses with the tail g.dam. The ones I like are crossed out with the dam sire line but this horse is showing he likes to win and that Teddy line tells me he should be able to run all day and into tomorrow. The question is, is he fast enough, especially at this distance in this company.
Mr Bowling has a nice pedigree but it's probably just a cut below the best types. He was highly regarded in the Iroquois but was beaten by Motor City who is a colt I'm kind of high on this year, a very strong closer.

Exfactor is also on a roll having won 3 straight, one of which was a G3, but they were all sprints. A nice pedigree for this distance but I find that a lot of nice colts with a lot of Mr Prospector females in their pedigree are often brilliant up to 1 1/8, so is dangerous in here.

Dan And Sheila has a pedigree type that is erratic for me. On occasion I will see a really good one but at this point I don't know where this one is going. Started out with a win at a mile which is always a good sign but I'll hold off on this one for awhile.

Z Dager looks like he's bred for the marathons. He also just broke his maiden at a distance so he could be a runner also.Seven Lively Sins has breeding I like. Those Bold Ruler females turn me on and I like that combined with the Mr P dam sire line.

Hammers Terror seems like a nice one but I find his pedigree hard to decipher so even though he's won 2 in a row I don't know where he's going from here.

Capetown Devil has the kind of pedigree that when they are good they can be very good. Evidently they were not too high on him initially because he made his first start in a claimer. I wouldn't know for sure but am inclined to think he surprised the connections. He has since moved up and stretched out and improved with each race. He seems to be fast and getting faster although he hasn't done it against graded company yet. He may be over matched here but I can recall other good ones that started in a claimer. One that comes to mind was the great filly Silver Spoon who made her first start in a claimer and ended up running 4th in the derby and had a stellar career.

  
So, I have several reasons to like this one; the pedigree is good, he looks to be fast and one of the first rules I learned in racing was not to bet against an unbeaten horse.

  
Shared property started out like a house on fire and in his second start won a grade 3 where he out kicked some decent ones, including Motor City. Wasn't that far back in the BC passing 4 horses in the stretch. I'm not entirely sold on his pedigree and I usually don't care for horses that run farther off the pace as they move up in class. He should be coming at the end but I think his post and lack of early speed may give him a little too much to do.

1- #10  Capetown Devil... jock will have to work a trip...may have enough tactical speed to get position.

2- #6  Seven Lively Sins...like the breeding...has speed and tried off the pace in last..may improve off that.

3- #5  Exfactor...has been sprinting but pedigree suggests he can handle this distance...on a roll.

4- #4  Mr Bowling....next to last was nice...been working like a demon.

5- #2  Dan And Shelia...good potential...may need a little more seasoning..but this is Pletcher.

2b and 11 will be coming and a lot depends on what the speed does.

Long Shot  #3  Ted's Folly

Recap

   Regardless of what the numbers might say, (I haven't seen any yet), I think the pace in this race was slow. I say this because of two reasons. One is that the 2 horses running up front looked to be kind of cheap to me but the #1 actually held on pretty good to the end. The other is that I really didn't think the #2b, Z Dager would be that close to the pace unless Pletcher gave orders to send him because the other half of the entry, Dan And Shelia was reserved well off the pace.

   I also think Sellers could have won the race had he ducked to the rail as they turned for home. For some reason the head on view is not available for that race but it looked to me that there was an opening on the rail for a brief moment but I could be wrong about that.

   Shared Property made a good run but hung near the end and was passed by Z Dager once that one found room. The horse that impressed me most was Dan And Shelia with that big closing kick. He ran into trouble in the first turn and was at the rear for most of the race. If the pace was slow, as I think it was, he made a great run and will probably appreciate a longer distance.

   Because of a lack of quality speed in this race I don't feel the race as a whole was very impressive.

Smarty Jones from Newsletter

   This is what I sent out in my newsletter yesterday concerning the Smarty Jones race:

The Smarty Jones

For some years now the Derby preps at Oaklawn Park have been making their mark on the Triple Crown picture. Of course we know that Smarty himself took this route to the derby and we had some good ones like Archarcharch follow in his footsteps.

   This race is just the first in a series but perhaps one will step up and make his/her presence felt in the coming months. Of course all eyes are on the FL and CA races where the top dogs are right now, especially in the barns of Baffert and Pletcher, but make no mistake, some good ones can come from Oaklawn and the Fairgrounds.

   This is an interesting race in that a filly will probably be the favorite. There are some nicely bred 3 yr olds in here but so far I haven't seen any performances to match the pedigrees.

   As for the performance side of it, the filly On Fire Baby has already nailed down two grade 2 filly races in a row although her Beyer's are not very high. She always seems to bring her best game to the track and has really been working well.

   Another who looks really tough to me is Optimizer who had started out on the turf winning his maiden race and followed that up with a good second in a grade 2 on the grass. Then tried the poly in the Breeders Fut. and was a close third to Dullahan in that grade 1 but then had a bad start in the Breeders Cup. Came back in a grade 2 at CD and was only beaten a couple lengths by Gemologist who I have as one of my top derby picks right now. The only knock I have against him in this race is that all his races have been at 1 1/16 and he drops back to a mile here which wouldn't be too bad except that he likes to come from way out of it.

   The two mentioned above are the only ones in here that have had a decent showing in a graded race,so as far as what they have shown so far they should be the ones to beat.

   The horses that have pedigrees that I like are Junebugred, Prince Cheval, Copus, Hard Nosed, Reckless Jerry and King Coral. The problem is that none of those have stepped up to the plate yet. There are a couple that have run well but against much cheaper company and against statebreds.

   One that does look interesting is Junebugred. A nicely bred colt that went off as chalk in his first race and didn't run bad and came back to win at AQU at this distance. Has changed trainers and Bravo comes in for the ride. Looks like a lot of room for improvement with this guy.

   Having 6 very nicely bred colts in this one could make for a surprise but at this point I've got to temper pedigree with performance to this point.

1- # 6 Optimizer....has faced the best of this group so far...got closer to the pace last time and might be able to shorten up here.

2- # 10 On Fire Baby...seems to be the one to beat.

3- #2 Junebugred...might be a lot of upside with him.

4- #12 Reckless Jerry...hasn't run a bad one yet but post may hinder.

The rest of the race is up for grabs.

Recap:

   A very clever ride by Bravo slipping through on the rail and saved ground all the way. This one may have a future and I'd love to see him take Joey to the derby.

   Reckless Jerry was full of run and the jock worked a good trip despite the bad post. Is very steady and has yet to throw a clunker.

   I'd say that the connections of the filly, who ran a game race, were a little too ambitious. Keep her with the fillies because there are an awful lot of really well bred colts this year.

   Optimizer just didn't fire. He probably needs more distance but I think he has run some decent races simply because he was a little more advanced in his development than most of his opponents. 
   And once again pedigree proves to be best!

Pedigree Experts Follow Up

   I know I stepped on some toes in my previous post so I do apologize to those who are normally agreeable. My gripe is not with those that have a different opinion, but with posters who don't wish to have a discussion about the merits of this or that and only want to try to prove someone wrong.
   It's not hard to tell when an individual is knowledgeable about a given subject whether it be handicapping or pedigrees or most anything. Having a discussion with a person that is well informed is usually a pleasure because it gives you a chance to see some things you may not have thought of.
   On the other hand, there are those who might know a little, and in many cases, damn little, that always try to start a dispute with wise-ass remarks. Another little trick they use is to try and find some little mistake in spelling or grammar so as to try to make one look foolish. When it comes to the subject at hand they like to insist that whatever their opinion is, and it doesn't matter as to how simplified that opinion is, their answer is the be all and end all. It's been said; a little knowledge can be dangerous.
   Since I'm pushing 80 yrs. of age perhaps I'm a cantankerous old man but honestly, I don't mean to be. I guess I don't suffer fools graciously, especially nasty ones. After all, in most cases, I've been where they are and they can only hope to get where I am.
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Pedigree Experts

   I really have to laugh when I read some comments on horse forums concerning pedigrees. As soon as the latest little prep race is run everyone has spotted the derby winner.
   I like when they say," Oh, he's by so and so and should run all day." Or, "He's by so and so who never got beyond 8f so will never get the derby distance". As soon as I see these comments I know that the one making it doesn't know a chromosome from a frog egg.
   The idea that one horse in a pedigree decides how good the pedigree might be is ludicrous. The way some people look at a pedigree reminds me of someone looking at a map to find how to get to a destination but they don't even know where they are to begin with. 
   Even the very best of breeders and pedigree consultants know that breeding is one huge crap shoot, so to make statements that because a horse is by a particular stallion or there is a certain sire somewhere in the blood, the quality of the horse is therefore decided, only serves to put their ignorance on display.


   I will have some upcoming articles in my newsletter about breeding, such as:
Broodmares and Copper
Breeding Sprinters With Stayers
Breeding from unraced horses, and other articles I may come up with.




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Count Fleet and Sham Stakes

  As I said in a previous post, I will no longer be posting my picks for the Triple Crown preps. I will be covering them in my newsletter. I will on occasion post some pedigree items here but I am hard pressed for time so it will not be on a regular basis.

Best of luck,
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Newsletter

   My first newsletter will be going out this weekend. One of the features will be the race or races of the week on the TC trail so I will be sending it on Fri. nights or Sat. mornings.
   This week I will be covering the first race on the TC trail in NY., the Count Fleet. It's not a graded race but is a stepping stone to the graded races in NY. I probably wouldn't cover it but there are a couple in there that have classic derby pedigrees and a good win would put it in the thick of things going forward.
   There will also be something concerning Hansen and what his future looks like.
   Also, some comments on the Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer lines.

To subscribe, inquire by e-mail...........backstretch33@gmail.com
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    Nine of the last 14 derby winners have had one of my common denominator factors in their pedigree. I have found over the years that there are certain characteristics in the pedigrees of derby winners that seem to dominate.Since 65% of derby winners of the last 14 years qualify on these factors I feel I have a better than even chance of having the derby winner on my list of contenders.

   Because there are usually 400 or more nominated to the derby it's a difficult chore to go through their pedigrees and attempt to rate them. Also, a pedigree isn't worth much if the horse doesn't show some talent in its races so during the season I try to narrow the field by a combination of performance and pedigree. I usually nail some big priced winners along the way because of their pedigree potential and the fact that they haven't yet lived up to that potential. For instance; if you go through my blogs you will see that I had Watch Me Go as a serious contender in one of the early races and he won at over 40/1. I also picked Archarcharch 2 times at 15/1. I had Animal Kingdom as one of my top choices for the derby and made a bet with Arch and Animal Kingdom on top and you know AK won @ 20/1.

This year should produce a lot more interesting races than last year because there are a lot more quality speed horses this year. Last year we had Shackleford and that was about it. He never really got challenged on the front end by any front runners other than sprinters. We should see a lot of pace in the coming races which will make for better racing.

I am giving a partial list of my contenders now and will be adjusting the list as the season progresses.

Listed in alphabetical order:

Alpha
Currency Swap
Done Talking
Dullahan
El Padrino
Empire Way
Exfactor
Gemologist
Hansen
Hunt Crossing
Managed Account
Motor City
Parish Hall
Power
Power World
Seve
Speightscity
Souper Speedy
Union Rags
   Some of these have virtually eliminated themselves already but it's a little early to toss them until they have had a chance over a distance of ground. There are a few that I like a lot more than the rest, and one in particular, that I think is much better than all of them. Just have to take it race by race to what develops as some late starters enter the picture. There are probably some nicely bred horses I haven't seen yet.

   This year I will not be blogging my pedigree analysis and race selections. I will be sending the information in a weekly newsletter that is being developed. If you are interested in subscribing to my newsletter which will also contain articles on "Out of the Box" handicapping, please inquire by e-mail.
backstretch33@gmail.com

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