Delta Jackpot

   The Delta Jackpot could be called a "Win and Your In" prep for the KY Derby. With a purse of one million dollars the winner is virtually assured of a spot in the KY Derby. Makes one wonder why more high profile horses aren't entered. I would think that winning this race would give the connections an awful lot of options as to what races to enter and how often to race. I suppose the winner could just sit on the sidelines til the big dance.
   The field looks to be competitive enough but I don't see any of these as a serious derby contender. I see a few decent pedigrees but nothing that excites me at all.
   Drill looks to have run against better fields than the rest but threw a real clunker last time although he did have some trouble at the start. I would have liked to see him at least get involved in the race so, even though he may bounce right back, I'm going against him.
   As many readers know, I use pedigrees as my main handicapping tool in these races for young horses so that's how I will judge this race.

1- My Adonis.....
2- Drill
3- Sabercat
4- Tiz Moe

   I won't be putting any of these pedigrees on my derby watch list because I don't think any of them are bred for classic distances.

Backstretch Bits and Pieces

   I get random thoughts all the time so I thought it time to record some of them.

   Uncle Mo: I almost never agree with Andy Beyer, mostly because I believe his figures are a bunch of crap, but on Uncle Mo we are one. The terrible job that was done on that horse is a crying shame. Probably the biggest reason he was handled so badly was the desire to have him remain undefeated. Dodging the competition and trying to pick easy spots was what came back to bite Repole and Pletcher in the ass. Had they actually raced UM into condition he probably wouldn't have been beaten. I believe he had the pedigree to handle the distance and I don't buy that liver disease bull. One thing I do believe is that Pletcher, considering the horses he gets, is not much of a trainer and is piss poor at prepping a horse for the long distance races. JMO

   I got into another rhubarb on THAT website because I had the nerve to suggest that there may have been a track bias for the BC. I thought that because so many horses that won had come from off the pace in the middle of the track there may have been something to favor closers. Even though I have since read numerous columns and opinions agreeing with my assessment, I guess everyone that agrees there was a bias is wrong. Why? Because Christ Jesus says so! Case closed!

   How much is a length worth in terms of odds? I haven't really kept a record of how often this happens but I can recall some just from memory. I had noticed that in 2007 Street Sense had been beaten by Circular Quay by a nose in his previous race, yet CQ went off as the favorite and SS won at 15/1. This year there were a couple that I noticed like Musical Romance who actually beat Switch last time. Switch went off as the 3/1 second choice and Musical Romance won @ 20/1. Then we have the classic where Flat Out, who had beaten Drosselmeyer by 2 lengths, is sent off as the favorite and is out of the money while Drossel wins @ 15/1. In the JGC, which was run in the mud, Drosselmeyer was the only horse gaining on Flat Out. Factor in that in most of the previous races closing horses were winning, and we know that distance is no problem for Drossel, how could he be ignored in the betting? The icing on the cake was that Mike Smith, who I consider to be the best come from behind jock in the country, had ridden the horse once and won the Belmont with him. Many reasons to bet Drossel and yet he's ignored. So, next year, keep in mind that horses like these can be totally ignored by the public.

   I noticed that a few stallions had their stud fees increased dramatically for next year. I wonder how these stallions would have done if they didn't have their pick of broodmares. I believe that there are many stallions that would produce good ones if they were able to cover some better mares. That's why the owners of the high priced studs retain the right to reject mares they don't like. They really wouldn't like it known that without the right mares their champs may sire nothing noteworthy.

   Do you actually think that horses are as erratic as the Beyer's make them out to be?

   Next post; Delta Jackpot or is it "Win and Your In"?

Breeders Cup 2 yr old Recap

   Although my pedigree horses did very well I wasn't overly impressed. Stephanie's Kitten looks to have more potential and should continue her winning ways. Northern Passion was ambitiously placed and should have stayed on the turf where I think she will have some success.
   My Miss Aurelia seems to be a notch above at this point in time but time must be given to others in order to mature.
   My main focus now will be to follow the colts as they sort each other out heading for the Triple Crown. There will be something like 400 horses nominated to the KY Derby and a lot of them haven't even started yet. Of course I like to see them get some racing under their belt so as to build a foundation. We all saw what happens when a horse like Uncle Mo is babied and lacks experience and a sound racing foundation. And let's not get overly impressed with horses like Hansen and Union Rags because there has been only one horse that won the BC and went on to win the KY Derby and that was Street Sense.
   The colt that has impressed me the most is Dullahan. In the BC he was bumped at the start and left about 15 lengths behind. He made a strong move very late and passed 5 horses in the stretch while only beaten 6 lengths. Has a strong pedigree for the classic distances and I feel sure will do better as he is stretched out. Hansen and Union Rags are very nice colts with good pedigrees but I'm not convinced they can get the Derby distance. Hansen does have an edge because of his speed and if you recall this past year there were no real quality colts with speed besides Shackleford and he was not bred for the longer distances.
   I also think there's a lot of upside for Speightscity. He has a really nice pedigree and actually ran well in the BC by chasing Hansen to the stretch. If he learns to rate a little off the pace and matures more he may be one to deal with in the future.
   There were a few excellent pedigrees that didn't show up for the BC. I really like a few foreign ones like Red Duke, Parish Hall and Power. And speaking of power, another US horse I really like is Power World.
   I'm not sure why some of these didn't show up but I will try to keep tabs on them in the future. There are a lot who have only made a start or two and some who will be making a final start by the years end. It should be an interesting winter in FL and the other southern states as the race to the crown starts taking shape.
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Breeders Cup 2 yr old pedigrees

Already this year, of the short list of pedigrees I posted on my blog, these are the stakes winners since I posted them.

My Miss Aurelia.......Frizette
Northern Passion.....Natalma
Stephanies Kitten....Alcibides
Finale.....................Summer
Union Rags.............Champagn
Dullahan.................Breeders Fut.
Motor City..............Iroquois

Here are some pedigrees I like in the BC 2 yr old races. Keep in mind that I am picking pedigrees that I think will handle the classic distances down the road. There are many more really nice pedigrees this year than last year so I'm only posting the ones I like best. There are some that are good but not really great and will make their presence felt because of having good form.
 In alphabetical order;

Fillie Turf:

Elusive Kate
Hard Not To Like
My Gi Gi
Pure Gossip
Stephanie's Kitten
Somali Lemonade
Sweet Cat

Fillie Dirt

Grace Hall
Homecoming Queen
My Miss Aurelia
Northern Passion
Questing
Self Preservation

Colts Turf:

Animal Spirits
Caspar Netscher
Farraaj
Finale
Shkspeare Shaliyah
State Of Play

Colts Dirt:

Alpha
Daddy Long Legs
Drill
Dullahan
Fort Loudon
Hansen
Speightscity
Union Rags
Those are the pedigrees I like best although there are some that would be good if not up against these.
My selections for the Breeders Cup are not available here.

Breeders Cup

   I had hoped to get my pedigrees done before now but due to my handicapping work for my clients I'm running behind schedule.
   I should have my pedigree contenders posted here by Thurs. 11/3/11. Thanks for your patience.

Backstretch

Breeders Cup 2 yr old Pedigrees

   This is the time of year I like to study pedigrees. I'm only interested in the 2 yr olds because the older horses were looked at in previous years and what they can do has been pretty well established by now. I do take pedigree into consideration with the older horses when I find them to be closely matched, especially the 3 yr olds.
   There seems to be a lot more nicely bred babies this year than last and more importantly, some with excellent pedigrees that have a lot of speed. I think that one of the principal reasons for all the different winners on the TC trail was the lack of any quality horses with high speed. Shack was the only one that could carry his speed a distance but he ran out of pedigree at the longer distance despite the fact he had no competition early. I think we will see a different story this year.
   When I handicap pedigrees I am looking for the horses I think will be able to handle the classic distances so what they do now and leading up to the classics will be determined by how fast they mature. The precocious ones usually do the early winning but, if lacking the right pedigree for the longer distances, will soon be overcome by the well bred late bloomers.
   The reason I do pedigree handicapping is that many time horses with great potential are overlooked in the betting and some great prices can be had. In a previous post I had noted, and was confirmed by a reader, that most of the stakes on the TC trail were won by one of my pedigree horses. Some of these were at big odds like Watch Me Go @40/1, Archarcharch @ 15/1 twice, Animal Kingdom @ 20/1, etc.
   I may list 4-5 horses for a race and if any go off real long I will usually go with the long ones in addition to the more formful ones. For some reason there seems to be a lot more bred for the classics this year than last, especially in the turf races.
   I'm not looking at the sprint races because it doesn't take classic breeding to win those races. Sprints are usually won by horses who are athletes with a high turn of speed.
   As of the moment I don't know who is going to run where as there are quite a few cross entered. It may be that the connections haven't yet decided what distance or surface their horse fits best or it may be that some horses are dodging others. I have a feeling that there are a few that prefer not to go up against Union Rags right now. Last year it seemed that all year long everyone was playing "Dodge The Bullet", especially Pletcher. Right now I will just have to go with the probable starters but I may add or delete some by race day.
   Starting with the JUV. Fillies Turf, here are my early pedigree picks in alphabetic order; This is not taking their current form into consideration, only their breeding.

Bourbonstreetgirl.......
Elusive Kate..............
My Gi Gi...................
Northern Passion.......
Pure Gossip...............
Somali Lemonade......
Stephanie's Kitten......
Sweet Cat.................
   Some of these have not shown their best yet and may not until later in the year. The really cool thing is to anticipate when a big race is about to pop and get on board at big odds.
   There is a small percentage of horses that have what I call a Heinz "57" pedigree. These are pedigrees that have so many different horses in them that it's extremely difficult to decide which are going to dominate. As I said, this is not an exact science.
   My next post will take up another BC baby race.

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Mine That Bird, a Fluke?

   When Mine That Bird won the KY Derby almost everyone thought it was some kind of fluke. I however, didn't really think so. There were 6 horses in that derby that I had on my pedigree list and of the first 6 to cross the finish line, 5 were my pedigree horses, including MTB.
   You may be wondering why I mention this at this time but I just want to point out how it's relevant now. In my previous post I had listed 5 horses that I liked their pedigree for the BC Fut. at KEE. One of these was a maiden named Dullahan who is a 1/2 brother to MTB. Actually, the way I look at pedigrees makes him closer to being a full brother. I guess you know that Dullahan won @17/1 and beat a pretty deep field. He caught the chalk who is a horse that I feel certainly has distance limitations.
   Judging from his breeding I think Dullahan will again be heard from, especially as the distances get longer on the Triple Crown Trail. I'm not stating that he's about to win the derby but I think he may be a contender along the way.
   His performance, IMO, validates just how good MTB was. Don't forget, he was the 2 yr old champ of Canada before he won the Derby and was 2nd and 3rd in the Preakness and Belmont. Doesn't sound like a fluke to me.
   This is the beauty of knowing how to judge the classical qualities of young horses by their pedigree. You never know what kind of odds you might get with horses that are really bred to go the distance of the classic races and have been getting beat in the shorter races where all it takes is sharp form to win.
   I'm looking forward to the TC races this winter and spring because it's a lot of fun to follow and also might be very profitable.
Next up, the Breeders Cup.
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