I get random thoughts all the time so I thought it time to record some of them.
Uncle Mo: I almost never agree with Andy Beyer, mostly because I believe his figures are a bunch of crap, but on Uncle Mo we are one. The terrible job that was done on that horse is a crying shame. Probably the biggest reason he was handled so badly was the desire to have him remain undefeated. Dodging the competition and trying to pick easy spots was what came back to bite Repole and Pletcher in the ass. Had they actually raced UM into condition he probably wouldn't have been beaten. I believe he had the pedigree to handle the distance and I don't buy that liver disease bull. One thing I do believe is that Pletcher, considering the horses he gets, is not much of a trainer and is piss poor at prepping a horse for the long distance races. JMO
I got into another rhubarb on THAT website because I had the nerve to suggest that there may have been a track bias for the BC. I thought that because so many horses that won had come from off the pace in the middle of the track there may have been something to favor closers. Even though I have since read numerous columns and opinions agreeing with my assessment, I guess everyone that agrees there was a bias is wrong. Why? Because Christ Jesus says so! Case closed!
How much is a length worth in terms of odds? I haven't really kept a record of how often this happens but I can recall some just from memory. I had noticed that in 2007 Street Sense had been beaten by Circular Quay by a nose in his previous race, yet CQ went off as the favorite and SS won at 15/1. This year there were a couple that I noticed like Musical Romance who actually beat Switch last time. Switch went off as the 3/1 second choice and Musical Romance won @ 20/1. Then we have the classic where Flat Out, who had beaten Drosselmeyer by 2 lengths, is sent off as the favorite and is out of the money while Drossel wins @ 15/1. In the JGC, which was run in the mud, Drosselmeyer was the only horse gaining on Flat Out. Factor in that in most of the previous races closing horses were winning, and we know that distance is no problem for Drossel, how could he be ignored in the betting? The icing on the cake was that Mike Smith, who I consider to be the best come from behind jock in the country, had ridden the horse once and won the Belmont with him. Many reasons to bet Drossel and yet he's ignored. So, next year, keep in mind that horses like these can be totally ignored by the public.
I noticed that a few stallions had their stud fees increased dramatically for next year. I wonder how these stallions would have done if they didn't have their pick of broodmares. I believe that there are many stallions that would produce good ones if they were able to cover some better mares. That's why the owners of the high priced studs retain the right to reject mares they don't like. They really wouldn't like it known that without the right mares their champs may sire nothing noteworthy.
Do you actually think that horses are as erratic as the Beyer's make them out to be?
Next post; Delta Jackpot or is it "Win and Your In"?
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