This is the time of year I like to study pedigrees. I'm only interested in the 2 yr olds because the older horses were looked at in previous years and what they can do has been pretty well established by now. I do take pedigree into consideration with the older horses when I find them to be closely matched, especially the 3 yr olds.
There seems to be a lot more nicely bred babies this year than last and more importantly, some with excellent pedigrees that have a lot of speed. I think that one of the principal reasons for all the different winners on the TC trail was the lack of any quality horses with high speed. Shack was the only one that could carry his speed a distance but he ran out of pedigree at the longer distance despite the fact he had no competition early. I think we will see a different story this year.
When I handicap pedigrees I am looking for the horses I think will be able to handle the classic distances so what they do now and leading up to the classics will be determined by how fast they mature. The precocious ones usually do the early winning but, if lacking the right pedigree for the longer distances, will soon be overcome by the well bred late bloomers.
The reason I do pedigree handicapping is that many time horses with great potential are overlooked in the betting and some great prices can be had. In a previous post I had noted, and was confirmed by a reader, that most of the stakes on the TC trail were won by one of my pedigree horses. Some of these were at big odds like Watch Me Go @40/1, Archarcharch @ 15/1 twice, Animal Kingdom @ 20/1, etc.
I may list 4-5 horses for a race and if any go off real long I will usually go with the long ones in addition to the more formful ones. For some reason there seems to be a lot more bred for the classics this year than last, especially in the turf races.
I'm not looking at the sprint races because it doesn't take classic breeding to win those races. Sprints are usually won by horses who are athletes with a high turn of speed.
As of the moment I don't know who is going to run where as there are quite a few cross entered. It may be that the connections haven't yet decided what distance or surface their horse fits best or it may be that some horses are dodging others. I have a feeling that there are a few that prefer not to go up against Union Rags right now. Last year it seemed that all year long everyone was playing "Dodge The Bullet", especially Pletcher. Right now I will just have to go with the probable starters but I may add or delete some by race day.
Starting with the JUV. Fillies Turf, here are my early pedigree picks in alphabetic order; This is not taking their current form into consideration, only their breeding.
Bourbonstreetgirl.......
Elusive Kate..............
My Gi Gi...................
Northern Passion.......
Pure Gossip...............
Somali Lemonade......
Stephanie's Kitten......
Sweet Cat.................
Some of these have not shown their best yet and may not until later in the year. The really cool thing is to anticipate when a big race is about to pop and get on board at big odds.
There is a small percentage of horses that have what I call a Heinz "57" pedigree. These are pedigrees that have so many different horses in them that it's extremely difficult to decide which are going to dominate. As I said, this is not an exact science.
My next post will take up another BC baby race.
Backstretch
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