It's getting down to crunch time. These are the contenders I have let that qualify on my pedigree angles. I basically have 2 pedigree angles that I use and one or the other angle has won 9 of the last 13 derbies. Of course their form must be taken into consideration so as of the moment I don't have them all listed in the exact order of preference. This list is in order of pedigree preference without regard to current form.
MASTER OF HOUNDS.....A super- duper pedigree that contains BOTH of my pedigree factors...there are a couple of ifs with him....is he really going to show up?....never raced on dirt so how will he take to it?...has a world class trainer that's been observing the preps so I don't think he would come unless he felt confident....has one race this year at Dubai and was nosed at 1 3/16 miles...has speed but likes to track leaders.
ARCHARCHARCH.....also has 2 of my angles working for him...this pedigree makes him almost a full brother to last years classic winner BLAME.....is in top form having just won the ARK DERBY....has speed to get position but runs best off the pace...can accelerate rapidly so he's able to get the jump on other closers.
UNCLE MO.....has 1 1/2 of my angles....has been mishandled so far this year in my opinion...regardless of the excuses I just think he was short on condition...is being treated for stomach infection so outlook is up in the air.
JAYCITO.........has a foot problem...has had only one race this year and has been off about 40 days...can't figure what Baffert is doing with him.
STAY THIRSTY.....didn't run a lick in FL DERBY....what happened?...a little upside is that he beat TOBY'S CORNER and that one came back to take the WOOD.
ANTHONY'S CROSS....was immediately taken back at the start in the SA DERBY...ran evenly and was only beaten 5 lengths....after his grade 2 win he was out almost 2 months...they say nothing was wrong....he could show a big improvement off his last....best races are on the pace...has shown a lot of gameness.
ANIMAL KINGDOM....has a lot of champion foreign horses in his pedigree and I don't quite know how I should read it....sharp race in last winning the SPIRIAL
SANTIVA....another that came off the bench last time and didn't do well...I assume this was a conditioning race since it was on the poly...also has some turf races but has shown a preference for dirt, especially at CD
WATCH ME GO....has tactical speed but was taken back a bit last time against soft fractions...JOE VANN, the winner of that race is a very good horse on a roll.
There are a few that I will give an honorable mention to; THE FACTOR, SOLDAT, BRILLIANT SPEED, and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE but these don't really tell me they can get the distance.
My pedigree angles are designed strictly for the classic distances and there are many horses that are brilliant at 1 1/8 but just can't get that other 1/8. Pedigree handicapping is not an exact science by any means but it does point to the horses able to get the classic distances.
When MINE THAT BIRD won the derby, 5 of the first 6 under the wire had one of my pedigree angles including the winner.
When everything is in I will give my final selections for the DERBY right here.
In the future I will be posting an article on how I go about pedigree handicapping and I know you will be surprised by how I came about learning these pedigree factors.
BACKSTRETCH
Friday, April 22, 2011
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Arkansas Recap
Horseplayers are really an odd lot. Reading the posts on some websites that are really into speed and pace handicapping makes me wonder about the logic being used by them. As the years go by and these horses with the "Figures" get beat time and time again the numbers boys come up with all kinds of theories as to why. They are really a joke.
Another one that makes me laugh are those handicappers that think they know something about pedigrees. The very first thing out of their mouth is the sire. The sire could or couldn't get the distance and a lot of other nonsense. As soon as they jump on the sire as their support for or against a horse I know they know nothing.
As to the AK Derby; I had to consider The Factor simply because of his speed. As I reported, his pedigree was doubtful as to the distance but sometimes a horse has enough speed to outrun his pedigree. In The Factor's case, it's my opinion that he suffered the same fate as horses like Hard Spun and Big Brown when they were defeated. Great runners but they were taken off their game by an attempt to rate them. Some horses take kindly to rating and some don't. They tried it with the free running Comma To The Top recently and it didn't work. The trainer then stated that in the SA Derby he was just going to let the horse go and he just got nipped. Speed is such an asset and to take a free running machine like The Factor and try to throttle him down is a huge mistake.
I have touted Arch as the best bred horse on the TC Trail all year and he proved something yesterday. Another that I liked is J W Blue but he was severely compromised by his post position yesterday. He won't make the KY Derby but don't count him out of the other races, he will be heard from.
I really couldn't understand all the hype about Elite Alex and didn't consider him all year as a major contender. Another case of pedigree readers placing all their faith in the immediate sire.
There are a couple of minor preps left but the next big stop on the trail is the big one. I will review them again and most will be eliminated although there is one that might jump into the fray that has superb classic breeding and I will discuss him in a future post.
Backstretch
Another one that makes me laugh are those handicappers that think they know something about pedigrees. The very first thing out of their mouth is the sire. The sire could or couldn't get the distance and a lot of other nonsense. As soon as they jump on the sire as their support for or against a horse I know they know nothing.
As to the AK Derby; I had to consider The Factor simply because of his speed. As I reported, his pedigree was doubtful as to the distance but sometimes a horse has enough speed to outrun his pedigree. In The Factor's case, it's my opinion that he suffered the same fate as horses like Hard Spun and Big Brown when they were defeated. Great runners but they were taken off their game by an attempt to rate them. Some horses take kindly to rating and some don't. They tried it with the free running Comma To The Top recently and it didn't work. The trainer then stated that in the SA Derby he was just going to let the horse go and he just got nipped. Speed is such an asset and to take a free running machine like The Factor and try to throttle him down is a huge mistake.
I have touted Arch as the best bred horse on the TC Trail all year and he proved something yesterday. Another that I liked is J W Blue but he was severely compromised by his post position yesterday. He won't make the KY Derby but don't count him out of the other races, he will be heard from.
I really couldn't understand all the hype about Elite Alex and didn't consider him all year as a major contender. Another case of pedigree readers placing all their faith in the immediate sire.
There are a couple of minor preps left but the next big stop on the trail is the big one. I will review them again and most will be eliminated although there is one that might jump into the fray that has superb classic breeding and I will discuss him in a future post.
Backstretch
Friday, April 15, 2011
Arkansas Derby-------Blue Grass
The AK Derby looks to be the deepest prep so far this year. With all the contenders that have been sidelined or have not run well, this race may produce the top contenders in the KY Derby.
I like several horses in here but I have to draw a line in the sand somewhere. I will stick with my pedigree colts but I also have to include The Factor. He may not have the pedigree for 1 1/4 miles but I feel he's bred well enough to get 1 1/8. The way he's been running he may outrun his pedigree anyway.
So, I will use The Factor on top along with Archarcharch who is my #1 pedigree horse. The other pedigrees I like are Alternation and J W Blue with a touch of Truman's Commander. Of the others it's hard to discount anyone. Brethren may bounce back and Elite Alex may do much better from the rail with Calvin
I'm going with 2 horses on top because I believe one of them will win this.
1 - #4 The Factor
1 - #9 Archarcharch
2 - #1 Alternation
3 - #11 J W Blue
4 - #5 Brethren....I had orginally posted the wrong name here
Some of this field must win this in order to make the show so it's do or die. I also think the post positions will be a biggy with closers going from the outside having their work cut out.
One play I will make, among others, is a tri of 4,9/4,9/All
Blue Grass: A lot of turf runners in here so it's tough to get a good line on them so once again I'll use my pedigrees to handicap them.
1 - #11 Crimson China
2 - #3 Santiva
3 - #12 Queen'splatekitten
4 - # 5 Brilliant Speed
5 - #1 Newsdad
I like several horses in here but I have to draw a line in the sand somewhere. I will stick with my pedigree colts but I also have to include The Factor. He may not have the pedigree for 1 1/4 miles but I feel he's bred well enough to get 1 1/8. The way he's been running he may outrun his pedigree anyway.
So, I will use The Factor on top along with Archarcharch who is my #1 pedigree horse. The other pedigrees I like are Alternation and J W Blue with a touch of Truman's Commander. Of the others it's hard to discount anyone. Brethren may bounce back and Elite Alex may do much better from the rail with Calvin
I'm going with 2 horses on top because I believe one of them will win this.
1 - #4 The Factor
1 - #9 Archarcharch
2 - #1 Alternation
3 - #11 J W Blue
4 - #5 Brethren....I had orginally posted the wrong name here
Some of this field must win this in order to make the show so it's do or die. I also think the post positions will be a biggy with closers going from the outside having their work cut out.
One play I will make, among others, is a tri of 4,9/4,9/All
Blue Grass: A lot of turf runners in here so it's tough to get a good line on them so once again I'll use my pedigrees to handicap them.
1 - #11 Crimson China
2 - #3 Santiva
3 - #12 Queen'splatekitten
4 - # 5 Brilliant Speed
5 - #1 Newsdad
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Wood...SA Derby....Illinois Derby
I won't bother with the Wood because it's an unbettable race for me. I can't go against UNCLE MO and if he wins, as he should, there's no value to be had.
The SA Derby looks to be very competitive and there could be some value in it. PREMIER PEGASUS will be the likely favorite but I think he can be beat. He made a quick move in the San Felipe and got the jump on the other closers but this is a different field at a longer distance.
My pedigree picks:
1 - ANTHONY"S CROSS....dueled TAPIZAR for the lead for 3/4s in a fast pace...got the lead in the stretch and battled RIVETING REASON all the way to the wire and hung on in a very game effort...I think he may get another stalking position behind the leaders who should be COMMA TO THE TOP and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE...my only knock against him is he's had over 45 days since his last race.
- JAYCITO....needed his last...dropped too far back and was left with too much to do...he does have speed and if Baffert has him cranked should be closer to the pace..SCRATCHED?
2 - COMMA TO THE TOP....Things look a little different with the scratches...very little speed now
3 - BENCH POINTS.......was another with too much to do in last...gets Rafy back in the saddle...really looks like he'll like the extra distance.
4 - MR. COMMONS....I really like his old classic breeding...NEARCO inbred....I really wouldn't be surprised if he got it all.
5 - QUAIL HILL...another that couldn't get into the race last time...good 3rd in the R. LEWIS
There are 3-4 others that could upset in here...all depends on how the race shapes up...I feel Baffert has a rabbit in here in MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE so Jaycito is sure to have some pace up front...
Illinois Derby:
1 - JOE VANN....superbly bred...was a little late developing but looks to be on a roll now.
2 - WATCH ME GO....I picked this one for 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby and he won at 40/1...he's a late nominee to the KY Derby..
3 - EL GRAYLING...good race 2nd back against SHACKELFORD...
4 - ZOEBEAR...ran 2nd to TAPIZAR last year...still a maiden but is always in the hunt.
The SA Derby looks to be very competitive and there could be some value in it. PREMIER PEGASUS will be the likely favorite but I think he can be beat. He made a quick move in the San Felipe and got the jump on the other closers but this is a different field at a longer distance.
My pedigree picks:
1 - ANTHONY"S CROSS....dueled TAPIZAR for the lead for 3/4s in a fast pace...got the lead in the stretch and battled RIVETING REASON all the way to the wire and hung on in a very game effort...I think he may get another stalking position behind the leaders who should be COMMA TO THE TOP and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE...my only knock against him is he's had over 45 days since his last race.
- JAYCITO....needed his last...dropped too far back and was left with too much to do...he does have speed and if Baffert has him cranked should be closer to the pace..SCRATCHED?
2 - COMMA TO THE TOP....Things look a little different with the scratches...very little speed now
3 - BENCH POINTS.......was another with too much to do in last...gets Rafy back in the saddle...really looks like he'll like the extra distance.
4 - MR. COMMONS....I really like his old classic breeding...NEARCO inbred....I really wouldn't be surprised if he got it all.
5 - QUAIL HILL...another that couldn't get into the race last time...good 3rd in the R. LEWIS
There are 3-4 others that could upset in here...all depends on how the race shapes up...I feel Baffert has a rabbit in here in MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE so Jaycito is sure to have some pace up front...
Illinois Derby:
1 - JOE VANN....superbly bred...was a little late developing but looks to be on a roll now.
2 - WATCH ME GO....I picked this one for 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby and he won at 40/1...he's a late nominee to the KY Derby..
3 - EL GRAYLING...good race 2nd back against SHACKELFORD...
4 - ZOEBEAR...ran 2nd to TAPIZAR last year...still a maiden but is always in the hunt.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Patience Pays
Of all the failures of horse players, lack of patience must be at the top of the list. Most bettors act like today is the last day racing will ever be held.
How many players can go to the track and play their best bet in the first race and, win or lose, turn around and go home. If you can't do that your going to be forever a loser.
I have many clients that come and go. When they make a score they start betting every race at every track on the map. They soon go broke and inform me that they have to take some time off. They build a little bankroll and come back to my service and then go through the whole process again.
On the other hand, I have clients that have been with me for years and they have patience and know how to manage their money. The winning players know that days may go by without my having a play. They also know that losing streaks are a part of every one's game. The ones with patience to wait for a play know that, despite the losing streaks, the winners will come.
Whether a player is handicapping themselves or subscribing to a service like mine, they must develop the patience to wait for good plays. Of course I'm not talking about handicappers that use computer programs and bet a jillion races and hope to catch a big enough percentage of winners to turn a profit.
I am a spot player and I know there are other spot players out there but I believe we are a minority. I like the idea of a couple plays a day on average. Days with no plays are welcomed by me because there is a life without horses. I tried sitting all day and playing race after race and it doesn't take long to become jaded. I like the idea of a couple of bets a day and having the rest of the day to do as I please.
Even when spot playing, the PPs have to be looked at every day to determine if there are any plays to be had. After a lot of years this relatively short time can become a drag and when that happens you start to lose interest and begin to get sloppy. When that happens I shorten the week and only play 3 or 4 days.
When one operates in this manner it becomes second nature to develop patience. When you skip days you realize that the races are still there the next day. Unless your a degenerate gambler, you will welcome the breaks in the action and make better choices in your betting.
I am glad to answer questions or discuss handicapping. Just leave a comment or you may e-mail me and I answer all. backstretch33@gmail.com
How many players can go to the track and play their best bet in the first race and, win or lose, turn around and go home. If you can't do that your going to be forever a loser.
I have many clients that come and go. When they make a score they start betting every race at every track on the map. They soon go broke and inform me that they have to take some time off. They build a little bankroll and come back to my service and then go through the whole process again.
On the other hand, I have clients that have been with me for years and they have patience and know how to manage their money. The winning players know that days may go by without my having a play. They also know that losing streaks are a part of every one's game. The ones with patience to wait for a play know that, despite the losing streaks, the winners will come.
Whether a player is handicapping themselves or subscribing to a service like mine, they must develop the patience to wait for good plays. Of course I'm not talking about handicappers that use computer programs and bet a jillion races and hope to catch a big enough percentage of winners to turn a profit.
I am a spot player and I know there are other spot players out there but I believe we are a minority. I like the idea of a couple plays a day on average. Days with no plays are welcomed by me because there is a life without horses. I tried sitting all day and playing race after race and it doesn't take long to become jaded. I like the idea of a couple of bets a day and having the rest of the day to do as I please.
Even when spot playing, the PPs have to be looked at every day to determine if there are any plays to be had. After a lot of years this relatively short time can become a drag and when that happens you start to lose interest and begin to get sloppy. When that happens I shorten the week and only play 3 or 4 days.
When one operates in this manner it becomes second nature to develop patience. When you skip days you realize that the races are still there the next day. Unless your a degenerate gambler, you will welcome the breaks in the action and make better choices in your betting.
I am glad to answer questions or discuss handicapping. Just leave a comment or you may e-mail me and I answer all. backstretch33@gmail.com
Monday, April 4, 2011
Florida Derby Recap
I'm trying to figure out what that race really decided. As I suspected, nobody really wanted the lead. Soldat and Flashpoint never tried for it and, in my opinion, Shackleford kind of inherited the lead.
A lot of pace and speed handicappers say the pace was fast and the track was favoring speed. If that's true, why did Soldat and Flashpoint back up? Not only did they not close as they had intended to do but they backed up even though they wern't that close to the pace. Very strange race in my opinion.
They say Dialed In closed on a fast pace with slow late fractions. What happened to Stay Thirsty and Soldat? Why didn't they close? As happened to Hard Spun and Big Brown, I think when you take a speed horse off his game, in most cases, they don't run good.
Dialed In may be the real goods but I still have doubts because he just nipped the front runner at the wire and those two were the only ones running at the finish. This makes two FL derbys in a row for Zito with the same type horses. He doesn't have many now-a-days but he sure knows how to get them ready.
I still feel that the KY Derby winner is going to come out of the AK races. It may or may not be The Factor but we'll know more after the AK Derby. He blew the field away in the Rebel but he was also the lone speed in that race and most of the time a lone speed winner will put up a life time mark. We have to see what happens if he's challenged, if anyone is able to do that.
Some big races on tap for next week and I'll look at them later in the week.
Backstretch
A lot of pace and speed handicappers say the pace was fast and the track was favoring speed. If that's true, why did Soldat and Flashpoint back up? Not only did they not close as they had intended to do but they backed up even though they wern't that close to the pace. Very strange race in my opinion.
They say Dialed In closed on a fast pace with slow late fractions. What happened to Stay Thirsty and Soldat? Why didn't they close? As happened to Hard Spun and Big Brown, I think when you take a speed horse off his game, in most cases, they don't run good.
Dialed In may be the real goods but I still have doubts because he just nipped the front runner at the wire and those two were the only ones running at the finish. This makes two FL derbys in a row for Zito with the same type horses. He doesn't have many now-a-days but he sure knows how to get them ready.
I still feel that the KY Derby winner is going to come out of the AK races. It may or may not be The Factor but we'll know more after the AK Derby. He blew the field away in the Rebel but he was also the lone speed in that race and most of the time a lone speed winner will put up a life time mark. We have to see what happens if he's challenged, if anyone is able to do that.
Some big races on tap for next week and I'll look at them later in the week.
Backstretch
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Florida Derby
Compared to what we've seen so far, this looks like the "Clash of the Titans". At least half the field might be considered legitimate contenders at this stage of the game.
I'm still following my pedigree method of handicapping for the TC but that doesn't mean a horse not bred for the classic distances can't win in these prep races.
In post position order:
#1...SOLDAT....has a decent pedigree...has been very consistent against what might be the best company...has the most experience...has won on dirt and grass...has two 2nds against 2 very good turf horses in Pluck and Air Support....hard to fault him in this field.
#2...TO HONOR AND SERVE...another with a nice but not great pedigree...was really good as a 2 yr old...one race this year and was quite short in that one...Mott expects a big improvement and if so could come up to the Derby sitting on his best.
#3...ARCH TRAVELER...very nicely bred....hasn't thrown a bad race yet but hasn't been tested either...won last at this distance but in slow time....jumping into the fire here so I'll wait to see what happens.
#4...BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY....I don't think he has classic breeding....has managed some minor awards but looks to be a cut below these.
#5... SHACKLEFORD...another with only fair breeding...nice win in fast time in next to last but that may have been the best he can do...I think he bounced last time...might bounce back but I don't think he's good enough at this level.
#6...STAY THIRSTY...very nice pedigree...had a long break but came out running....was taken off the pace a little in last and responded well...doesn't have to win this but if it's a good closing effort it would set him up nicely for the big one.
#7...DIALED IN...I'm not in love with his breeding ...to be honest, I have my doubts about him getting the derby distance...he does have Zito in his favor and Nick knows how to put some bottom in his horses...he may be good enough to beat this field.
#8...FLASHPOINT...even though his dosage is kind of high I do see some stamina in there...looks to be very fast and blew away Travelin Man in last...he may not have run his best yet and if that's true he could run away from these.
The key to this race is; Who's going to the front? They plan to lay SOLDAT off the pace, blinkers on THIRSTY to try to get closer to the pace, looks like everyone else plan to lay back except THAS who looks like he wants to be on the pace. Dutrow says FLASHPOINT doesn't need the lead so there may be a battle to stay off the lead. I kind of think FLASH, with his natural speed, will get the lead whether he wants it or not and it may be an easy lead. If nobody presses him he can take them a long way.
My picks:
STAY THIRSTY
FLASHPOINT
SOLDAT
TO HONOR AND SERVE
DIALED IN
I'm still following my pedigree method of handicapping for the TC but that doesn't mean a horse not bred for the classic distances can't win in these prep races.
In post position order:
#1...SOLDAT....has a decent pedigree...has been very consistent against what might be the best company...has the most experience...has won on dirt and grass...has two 2nds against 2 very good turf horses in Pluck and Air Support....hard to fault him in this field.
#2...TO HONOR AND SERVE...another with a nice but not great pedigree...was really good as a 2 yr old...one race this year and was quite short in that one...Mott expects a big improvement and if so could come up to the Derby sitting on his best.
#3...ARCH TRAVELER...very nicely bred....hasn't thrown a bad race yet but hasn't been tested either...won last at this distance but in slow time....jumping into the fire here so I'll wait to see what happens.
#4...BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY....I don't think he has classic breeding....has managed some minor awards but looks to be a cut below these.
#5... SHACKLEFORD...another with only fair breeding...nice win in fast time in next to last but that may have been the best he can do...I think he bounced last time...might bounce back but I don't think he's good enough at this level.
#6...STAY THIRSTY...very nice pedigree...had a long break but came out running....was taken off the pace a little in last and responded well...doesn't have to win this but if it's a good closing effort it would set him up nicely for the big one.
#7...DIALED IN...I'm not in love with his breeding ...to be honest, I have my doubts about him getting the derby distance...he does have Zito in his favor and Nick knows how to put some bottom in his horses...he may be good enough to beat this field.
#8...FLASHPOINT...even though his dosage is kind of high I do see some stamina in there...looks to be very fast and blew away Travelin Man in last...he may not have run his best yet and if that's true he could run away from these.
The key to this race is; Who's going to the front? They plan to lay SOLDAT off the pace, blinkers on THIRSTY to try to get closer to the pace, looks like everyone else plan to lay back except THAS who looks like he wants to be on the pace. Dutrow says FLASHPOINT doesn't need the lead so there may be a battle to stay off the lead. I kind of think FLASH, with his natural speed, will get the lead whether he wants it or not and it may be an easy lead. If nobody presses him he can take them a long way.
My picks:
STAY THIRSTY
FLASHPOINT
SOLDAT
TO HONOR AND SERVE
DIALED IN
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