The AK Derby looks to be the deepest prep so far this year. With all the contenders that have been sidelined or have not run well, this race may produce the top contenders in the KY Derby.
I like several horses in here but I have to draw a line in the sand somewhere. I will stick with my pedigree colts but I also have to include The Factor. He may not have the pedigree for 1 1/4 miles but I feel he's bred well enough to get 1 1/8. The way he's been running he may outrun his pedigree anyway.
So, I will use The Factor on top along with Archarcharch who is my #1 pedigree horse. The other pedigrees I like are Alternation and J W Blue with a touch of Truman's Commander. Of the others it's hard to discount anyone. Brethren may bounce back and Elite Alex may do much better from the rail with Calvin
I'm going with 2 horses on top because I believe one of them will win this.
1 - #4 The Factor
1 - #9 Archarcharch
2 - #1 Alternation
3 - #11 J W Blue
4 - #5 Brethren....I had orginally posted the wrong name here
Some of this field must win this in order to make the show so it's do or die. I also think the post positions will be a biggy with closers going from the outside having their work cut out.
One play I will make, among others, is a tri of 4,9/4,9/All
Blue Grass: A lot of turf runners in here so it's tough to get a good line on them so once again I'll use my pedigrees to handicap them.
1 - #11 Crimson China
2 - #3 Santiva
3 - #12 Queen'splatekitten
4 - # 5 Brilliant Speed
5 - #1 Newsdad
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