Florida Derby

   Compared to what we've seen so far, this looks like the "Clash of the Titans". At least half the field might be considered legitimate contenders at this stage of the game.
   I'm still following my pedigree method of handicapping for the TC but that doesn't mean a horse not bred for the classic distances can't win in these prep races.
   In post position order:

#1...SOLDAT....has a decent pedigree...has been very consistent against what might be the best company...has the most experience...has won on dirt and grass...has two 2nds against 2 very good turf horses in Pluck and Air Support....hard to fault him in this field.

#2...TO HONOR AND SERVE...another with a nice but not great pedigree...was really good as a 2 yr old...one race this year and was quite short in that one...Mott expects a big improvement and if so could come up to the Derby sitting on his best.

#3...ARCH TRAVELER...very nicely bred....hasn't thrown a bad race yet but hasn't been tested either...won last at this distance but in slow time....jumping into the fire here so I'll wait to see what happens.

#4...BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY....I don't think he has classic breeding....has managed some minor awards but looks to be a cut below these.

#5... SHACKLEFORD...another with only fair breeding...nice win in fast time in next to last but that may have been the best he can do...I think he bounced last time...might bounce back but I don't think he's good enough at this level.

#6...STAY THIRSTY...very nice pedigree...had a long break but came out running....was taken off the pace a little in last and responded well...doesn't have to win this but if it's a good closing effort it would set him up nicely for the big one.

#7...DIALED IN...I'm not in love with his breeding ...to be honest, I have my doubts about him getting the derby distance...he does have Zito in his favor and Nick knows how to put some bottom in his horses...he may be good enough to beat this field.

#8...FLASHPOINT...even though his dosage is kind of high I do see some stamina in there...looks to be very fast and blew away Travelin Man in last...he may not have run his best yet and if that's true he could run away from these.
   The key to this race is; Who's going to the front? They plan to lay SOLDAT off the pace, blinkers on THIRSTY to try to get closer to the pace, looks like everyone else plan to lay back except THAS who looks like he wants to be on the pace. Dutrow says FLASHPOINT doesn't need the lead so there may be a battle to stay off the lead. I kind of think FLASH, with his natural speed, will get the lead whether he wants it or not and it may be an easy lead. If nobody presses him he can take them a long way.

My picks:
STAY THIRSTY
FLASHPOINT
SOLDAT
TO HONOR AND SERVE
DIALED IN