Belmont Stakes 2014

Belmont Stakes

BEL Sat. 6/7/14

Before getting to the race I'd like to say something about pedigrees and pedigree handicapping.

I read most of the articles written by turf writers and a lot of them get into pedigrees, usually after the fact. I also like to read the comments posted by the readers of the articles. I don't like to disparage the opinion of others, especially when there is no exact science to refer to as in horse racing. However, I have been into pedigrees for over fifty years and there are, believe it or not, some who swear by my method of reading pedigrees enough to pay me to check pedigrees before certain horses are purchased. I'm not here to toot my own horn but rather to say that the biggest majority of turf writers and those who make comments don't have a clue when it comes to breeding. There are pedigree consultants that know what they are doing and I can usually spot a well thought out pedigree and figure out what the breeders aim was.

In the case of California Chrome, who is attempting to win the TC, the "Experts" are crawling out of the woodwork. The first thing they do is to knock the sire because he never won anything to speak of. Next, they jump all over the dam because she was a cheap winner of one race. This crap doesn't mean a thing! They don't realize that some of the greatest horses that ever lived came out of mares that never raced or if they did, amounted to zilch on the race track. Tesio, probably the greatest breeder in history, among other greats, often bred from unraced or unproven mares. Sometimes horses were bred, not to race, but to breed.

I'd like to cite a couple of examples for you. Take the case of Swaps and Nashau who ran that famous match race. Incidentally, I was there to watch Nashua race several times and was really impressed by this beautiful horse. Oh, Nashua won the match, but there were many who said Swaps was a little off his feed at the time.

Here is a list of Nashua wins;
Futurity Stakes (1954)
Hopeful Stakes (1954)
Grand Union Hotel Stakes (1954)
Flamingo Stakes (1955)
Florida Derby (1955)
Arlington Classic (1955)
Wood Memorial Stakes (1955)
Dwyer Stakes (1955)
Jockey Club Gold Cup (1955, 1956)
Grey Lag Handicap (1956)
Monmouth Handicap (1956)
Suburban Handicap (1956)
Widener Handicap (1956)

American Classic Race wins:
Kentucky Derby 2nd (1955)
Preakness Stakes (1955)
Belmont Stakes (1955)
He ran second to Swaps in the KY Derby but took the other 2 legs of the TC.

Swaps was a CA bred horse and one of the reasons I chose these two to talk about is because at the time there was a lot written about the east coast/west coast rivalry.

Swaps also had a great racing record:

San Vicente Stakes (1955)
Santa Anita Derby (1955)
Californian Stakes (1955)
American Derby (1955)
Broward Handicap (1956)
Sunset Handicap (1956)
American Handicap (1956)
Argonaut Handicap (1956)
Hollywood Gold Cup (1956)
Washington Park Handicap (1956)

Triple Crown classic race wins:
Kentucky Derby (1955)
So, what about their record in the breeding end of it?

Swaps dam, Iron Reward, had 8 starts and never hit the board. Swaps was a pretty good sire and sired Chateaugay who won a KY derby and he also sired a great filly named Affectionally who was Champion 2 yr old and went on to win 15 graded stakes.

Nashua, although 12% of his off spring were stakes winners, really made his mark as a broodmare sire. His daughters threw many great ones including Mr Prospector. Mr Prospector, though himself a sprinter, was the start of a great line of distance champions.

Just as an aside, the mighty Secretariat was out of a mare who had 1 race and was out of the money.

So what has this to do with California Chrome? Many "Experts" say he has 2 strikes against him. One is that his sire wasn't much of a race horse and the other is that his dam was a cheap claimer that won but one race.

I have discovered over many years that there are often, what I call, fallow generations. A great horse sires a son who does nothing on the track to speak of, but then goes on to sire some really good ones. CC was sired by Lucky Pulpit who never won a major race but is the son of Pulpit who was not only a good runner, but an outstanding sire. It is my opinion that a lot of great runners become great sires because of the mares that are sent to them. But, and here is where I disagree with most pedigree experts, it is not so much the quality of the mares, which most judge by their performance on the track or if they have thrown prior high class runners, but how the mare matches up with the stallion in terms of bloodlines.

I pay attention to the sires line but not so much to the immediate sire. I give a lot of weight to the mares in the pedigree and their sire lines. There are usually a few horses in the same race with several of the same sires or sire lines represented but I look for more than one mare of the same sire line or what one might call a double dose.

The very first really great horse that I had the pleasure of seeing run was Tom Fool. He was the 2yr old champ in 1951 but was out sick for a few months as a 3 yr old but still won most of his races in 1952. As a 4 yr old he won 10 straight races. He won New Yorks Triple Crown; The Met, Suburban and Brooklyn handicaps. He was out of the money once in 30 races.

As a sire he produced Buckpasser, Tim Tam and Tompion among his 30 stakes winners. Buckpasser won 15 straight races including the 2 mile JGC. He was the leading broodmare sire for 3 years when he retired. Like his sire, he missed the TC races because of a 1/4 crack.

Tim Tam is one of my all time favorites, probably because the first $200. win bet I ever made was on him in the 1958 KY Derby which he won. He won the Preakness and finished second on 3 legs in the Belmont after which he was retired but was still the champion 3 yr old.

There are a few horses in this Belmont that have the Tom Fool line but CC is the only one with a double dose through his dam. The 4th generation dam, Numbered Account, is found twice in that generation. She set a stakes record for 5 1/2f and equaled Round Table's record for 1 1/8. As a broodmare she threw Dance Number and Private Account, the sire of Personal Ensign.

In California Chrome's pedigree, Numbered Account was bred to Northern Dancer and produced Dance Number who equaled a couple of major stakes records and set a new Beldame record for 1 1/4m. NA was also bred to Danzig, a son of Northern Dancer, and produced Polish Numbers who was much sought after as a sire having sired 35 stakes winners.

California Chrome also has a couple of mares, that are well placed in his pedigree, of the Northern Dancer/Nasrullah lines. So, in my opinion, I see no reason to feel that he has a cheap pedigree that says he has no distance ability. Not only does he have distance ability but has a running style that gives him a lot of advantage. Unless something funky happens, I think we will see a Triple Crown winner.

There are a few others in here with nice pedigrees but none of them has matched CC's racing performances.

Wicked Strong is nicely inbred to Northern Dancer and his dam sire is a Derby winner. He's another with a little Tom Fool blood through Buckpasser and Tri Jet but it's kind of far back in the pedigree. I think he can get the distance if going slow enough early but I think he will have too much ground to make up in this.

I really like the pedigree of Medal Count and think he can handle any distance. The problem here is that we don't know how he will handle the track. He didn't run all that bad in the FOY @ GP but I think he was a little closer to the pace of some speed balls than he wanted to be. The #1 post has been very good in previous Belmonts and he may have a shot in this one.

Although a NY bred, Samraat has a fairly nice pedigree and a bit of speed and could contend. He made a nice bid in the Derby but flattened out. Some improvement off that could put him in the thick of things.

I'm undecided about the pedigree of Tonalist and also concerned about his lack of foundation, having had only 4 races. I think he wired a suspect field in the Peter Pan in the slop and I also think that CC may be the real speed in this one.

Commissioner has a pedigree that could go either way but he actually lost ground to Tonalist in his last and he did nothing in the FOY where Medal Count was much more involved.

Commanding Curve Has a nice mix of Bold Ruler and Northern Dancer with a cross of Ribot on the bottom and I feel his breeding has potential. He was closing fast in the Derby from an outside post and lost a ton of ground. I also think his jock, Bridgmohan, is an excellent judge of pace and very under rated. If he can get a little closer early he may have a good chance .

I'm not too keen on Ride On Curlin's pedigree and I think he's shown his best in the Preakness which was a weaker field than this.\

I'm not impressed with General a Rod's breeding but he does have some speed and for some reason I think he is going to show big improvement off his last.

1- #2 California Chrome...he may just be sooo much better than this field.
2- #1 Medal Count...I just feel he will be around at the finish.
3- #4 Commanding Curve...some say this is a jock's race and that could help here.
4- #9 Wicked Strong...needs a good trip but I don't think he will have enough oomph.
Rounding out the super, Samraat and General a Rod.

If I go with CC on top I will have to make my bets very tight in order to get enough value to make it worthwhile so I'll put CC on top of these 5 and hope for a couple of long ones to get close.