First, a few words about 2 year old horses. One must acknowledge that some horses are much more precocious than others, that is, they mature much faster. In addition, many are earlier foals than others, sometimes as much as 5-6 months. This means that a lot of them have a head start and will do most of the winning of the early races. Many will only have a start or two before their 3 yr old season and have to catch up but they usually make their presence felt in the spring. This is the most likely reason there has been only one BC Juvy winner that has won the KY Derby.
My aim is to try to pick the pedigrees that will be able to handle the classic distances of the Triple Crown races. Since these early races are just over a mile it doesn't take classic breeding to win these races but the better bred horses usually win more than their fair share of the early ones.
I don't know if this is an exceptional year for well bred horses or last year was a bad crop but already, and I've just begun, I have found an abundance of nicely bred colts and fillies. Last year in the BC there were only a few that were really nice. Also, it seems like every year there are some classical bred horses from overseas but they don't have much luck here on the dirt. I attribute it to the different training methods over there. They run on the grass and are trained to go slow early and finish fast and that doesn't work in our dirt races where the pace is usually much faster. I don't hesitate to bet foreign horses on the grass but am very leery on dirt.
Now, on to the races and I'll start with the Champagn at BEL:
There are 4 in here that I really like their pedigrees but this is not to say the others are not nicely bred. I have to draw the line somewhere so, even though none can be eliminated completely according to breeding, I have come down to 4 in this race. Keep in mind that most are stretching out to a mile for the first time and a few of the early stakes were run on sloppy tracks. Slop usually favors speed and some horses really hate slop so there could be some surprises.
These are my top 4 in no particular order and I will try for an upset and will probably make some exotic boxes.
Power World.......really like this pedigree...hope he can run to it...should be better at the longer distances.
Speightscity........another nice one...has already won over a mile.
Alpha..............should relish more ground
Union Rags....off to a great start with 2 for 2
Frizette at BEL;
Spare Change
Stopshoppingmaria
My Miss Aurelia
Holiday Soiree
Dixiana Breeders Fut. at KEE;
As far as pedigrees, this is a much deeper race than the Champagne at BEL. There are an awful lot of really good pedigrees and it will take awhile for these to sort themselves out during the coming months. Right now I'll just list the ones that appeal to me. The future of a lot of these will probably be on the grass and since this is on the Poly we don't know which race they will go for in the BC.
Motor City
Shared Property
Dullahan
Our Entourage
Space Race
There are about 4 others that could be just as good...very good field
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