Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe

   Before I get into the races I'd like to comment on the politics of racing in regard to the Uncle Mo situation.
   It seems to me that trainers and owners are no different than politicians when it comes to trying to deceive the public. It is my opinion that Pletcher had a schedule mapped out for three of his horses; Uncle Mo, Brethren and Stay Thirsty. He was pointing Mo to the Wood as his final race before the Derby with Brethren going to the Tampa Bay Derby and Stay Thirsty to the Gotham.
   Keep in mind that Uncle Mo needs no more graded earnings to get in the derby so he's guaranteed a spot, where as the other two need some money in the account to get there. Having won the Sam Davis, there's no way they would want Brethren running anywhere but the TBD. It would be silly to run Mo in that race and probably knock Brethren out of contention. Thirsty is aiming for the FL Derby so they sure don't want to run Mo in that one. So what to do?
   They talk GP into making up a special race for Uncle Mo so that he would get a tune-up for the Wood without going against the other two and also at little risk of Mo getting beat. One of Pletcher's arguments was probably that by having this special race it would assure GP of a good crowd on the day the Tampa Derby is being run. I feel pretty sure they also promised Stay Thirsty would go in the FL Derby which would make that talk of his running in the Rebel a lot of BS.
   Everybody has been dodging everybody and only giving two preps to try to get to the first Sat. in May. I don't think a lot of them even care if the horse is ready for the big one, just get there!
   My whole point is that they don't come out with the truth, and try to con us, when anyone with a brain knows what they are up to. So don't believe the stories that trainers come up with because, for the most part, they are full of crap.

   On to the races: I won't even discuss Uncle Mo's race except to say I hope the Rattlesnake bites him.

   At Tampa I will have to stick with Brethren till he gets beat. This race looks to be tougher than the Sam Davis was but he looked to have plenty left in the tank when winning that one. Another point to remember when handicapping these prep races is not to pay too much attention to the speed ratings. Some of these horses have won so easily that they probably could have gone a lot faster as is the case with Brethren. Also, these young horses that are trying a distance for the first time may run much slower numbers as they stretch out and others may relish the longer distances. That is why I like my pedigree handicapping because it gives me a better idea of the potential at the longer distances.
   I like the pedigrees on Striding Ahead and Watch Me Go but I'm curious about the jockey situation on those two. Garcia is back on Watch Me Go and I don't know if he's committed to the horse or if he likes it better than Striding Ahead. On the other hand, Solis is having a banner meet in FL and is back to some of his old time form and maybe Billy Mott would rather him than Garcia. Solis is really good coming from off the pace and that may be the ticket in this race. Another with a nice pedigree is Free Entry who stretched out a little last time for his second straight score and is coming up to his third race off the layoff.
   There is some speed in this race and if Ramon sends Brethren early he may have some company up front.

1 --- Brethren.....didn't beat much in last but is still undefeated
2 --- Free Entry.....nice breeding and should be up to a big race
3 --- Striding Ahead....great pedigree...won first at the distance...question, will he improve or bounce?
4 --- Watch Me Go....nicely bred but couldn't get close to top one last time
A few in here were trying to close on Brethren last time but I think they just passed tired horses.

San Felipe; Looks like a very contentious race with no standout. There are only a couple of pedigrees in here that I like for the long haul. Bench Points has a very nice pedigree even though a CA bred. Is undefeated but has not met any good ones in open company. He's stretching out today but the way he runs it looks like he really wants more ground. Jaycito is another that's nicely bred. Has been up against some good ones and is now in Baffert's barn which should be a plus. There are some hard knockers in here like Comma To The Top and Premier Pegasus and a few newcomers to make it even more up for grabs.

1 --- Bench Points....I like his breeding...like his running style and seems to be a gritty type...not the least is he should be long odds.
2 --- Jaycito....like his breeding....already a grade 1 winner...good barn
3 --- Quail Hill...nice breeding...went 1 1/8 last time and wasn't far behind two nice ones in the Rbt. Lewis Stakes....will be a nice price and could take all the marbles.
Wide open race so I'm looking for value here and anyone can get a piece.

Good Luck,
Backstretch