Common Denominators

   Did you know that 8 of the last 12 derby winners have a common denominator in their pedigree? This pedigree factor is one of a few pedigree angles that I use to handicap the classics. A point to remember is that it doesn't take a classic pedigree to win the races leading up to the big ones but once we get to the 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 mile distances, it's a different ballgame.
   There have been years when the derby has been won by horses that didn't have real classic breeding but that begs the question of whether any of the horses in those races had classic breeding.
   I read comments all over the Internet concerning breeding and most comments, especially those of handicappers, dwell on the sire and what sire is hot this year. They are always going on about the distance limitations of certain sires and the races they have won or lost. Too much time is wasted on the immediate sire, period. Just as in handicapping, there are those who "Can't see the forest because of the trees".

   To get back to the task at hand, which is to judge which horses have a shot to win the big one. I found a handful of nominees this year that had my preferred pedigree factors. A few are foreign horses and I don't know what is going on with them. I don't know if they are racing, if they are pointed to the derby or if they are injured. A few have been injured and one in particular, named Smash, is on the comeback but it's a little late to get started. He was my favorite as far as breeding and had one race which he won. I'm looking forward to seeing him run again soon.
   As of the moment there are only a couple that have my pet breeding angles and one is Stay Thirsty. He will be going this week end in the Gotham. He is short on earnings and needs a win or two to make the derby. He doesn't look to have much to beat in the Gotham so if he can't win here he probably won't make the big show. If he does win and goes on to win another prep he will be a major factor in the derby.
   My favorite for the derby right now is Archarcharch. I bet him in his recent win at 15/1 and am looking for him to win the Rebel which is shaping up to be a tough race. So far it looks like this is going to be the toughest field assembled so far this year and the derby winner could come from this race.
   For those interested in future bets, I got down on Stay Thirsty at 40/1 with Twin-Spires but they had Archie in the field, but I managed to get down on him in Vegas @ 85/1. If he wins the Rebel he'll probably drop to 10/1 or so.
   I'll be posting more later in the week.
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