Breeders Cup Prep Races ...Sat. 10/8/11

   First, a few words about 2 year old horses. One must acknowledge that some horses are much more precocious than others, that is, they mature much faster. In addition, many are earlier foals than others, sometimes as much as 5-6 months. This means that a lot of them have a head start and will do most of the winning of the early races. Many will only have a start or two before their 3 yr old season and have to catch up but they usually make their presence felt in the spring. This is the most likely reason there has been only one BC Juvy winner that has won the KY Derby.
   My aim is to try to pick the pedigrees that will be able to handle the classic distances of the Triple Crown races. Since these early races are just over a mile it doesn't take classic breeding to win these races but the better bred horses usually win more than their fair share of the early ones.
   I don't know if this is an exceptional year for well bred horses or last year was a bad crop but already, and I've just begun, I have found an abundance of nicely bred colts and fillies. Last year in the BC there were only a few that were really nice. Also, it seems like every year there are some classical bred horses from overseas but they don't have much luck here on the dirt. I attribute it to the different training methods over there. They run on the grass and are trained to go slow early and finish fast and that doesn't work in our dirt races where the pace is usually much faster. I don't hesitate to bet foreign horses on the grass but am very leery on dirt.
   Now, on to the races and I'll start with the Champagn at BEL:

There are 4 in here that I really like their pedigrees but this is not to say the others are not nicely bred. I have to draw the line somewhere so, even though none can be eliminated completely according to breeding, I have come down to 4 in this race. Keep in mind that most are stretching out to a mile for the first time and a few of the early stakes were run on sloppy tracks. Slop usually favors speed and some horses really hate slop so there could be some surprises.
   These are my top 4 in no particular order and I will try for an upset and will probably make some exotic boxes.

Power World.......really like this pedigree...hope he can run to it...should be better at the longer distances.

Speightscity........another nice one...has already won over a mile.

Alpha..............should relish more ground

Union Rags....off to a great start with 2 for 2

Frizette at BEL;

Spare Change
Stopshoppingmaria
My Miss Aurelia
Holiday Soiree

Dixiana Breeders Fut. at KEE;

As far as pedigrees, this is a much deeper race than the Champagne at BEL. There are an awful lot of really good pedigrees and it will take awhile for these to sort themselves out during the coming months. Right now I'll just list the ones that appeal to me. The future of a lot of these will probably be on the grass and since this is on the Poly we don't know which race they will go for in the BC.

Motor City
Shared Property
Dullahan
Our Entourage
Space Race
There are about 4 others that could be just as good...very good field

The Germans Are Coming

   Back on May 11 I posted a blog titled "Out Of The Box Breeding" in which I discussed the pedigree of Animal Kingdom. I especially wanted to point out something that I rarely hear about in horse breeding and that is Hy-bred Vigor. Hy-bred Vigor is something that is obtained by the introduction of new blood into an inbred family.
   All I read about is the merits of this or that sire and it seems that every year or so a new sire is in fashion. I am always reminding people that most of the time the sire doesn't carry much weight in a pedigree but his family lines do. If one looks at the pedigrees of the 2 yr olds of each season it will be found that a huge percentage of these horses are all closely related. Virtually all of the really good horses of the last 30 yrs or so are of the Northern Dancer and Raise A Native bloodlines. But what do we really have here?
    Native Dancer is the sire of Raise A Native who is the sire of Mr Prospector. Native Dancer is the son of Phalaris who is also the g. sire of Nearco who is the g sire of Northern Dancer. So you see, they are all related and most of our top horses today are really inbred to Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector.
   Any species, in order to develop the most desired traits, ends up being inbred because of selective breeding programs. This process eventually results in a deterioration of the breed, which in this case, means a weakening of the stamina and bone structure resulting in more break downs and diminishing stamina. This is about where we stand now.
   In order to reverse this trend there must be new blood introduced into the inbred family. I have seen some of this happening in the case of Animal Kingdom and now with Danedream. By the crossing of the Northern Dancer line with the German horses a much stronger horse is being produced. About 15-16 winners in a row of the Arc can be traced back to Nearco and now a filly wins the Arc in record time as a result of the introduction of the German line into the Phalaris family.
   I really believe that our next Triple Crown winner will be the result of an out cross with a horse such as Big Brown who I think is the best I've seen since Secretariat. BB is inbred to Nearco and is a horse that had high speed and could sustain it over any distance. In my opinion, an out cross with him may produce a durable horse with plenty of stamina and a high cruising speed. In fact, I predicted 2 yrs ago that Big Brown would sire the next TC winner and I stand by that.
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PS- My next blog will be about this weeks 2 yr old preps for the Breeders Cup.

Pennsylvania Derby

   This looks to be an interesting race. I don't know what the plans might be for whoever wins but it's possible they would try the BC Classic.
   If you recall, after the AK Derby I told my readers to keep an eye out for J W Blue as he would be heard from down the line. I really like his breeding but either he was brought along slowly or he's a late bloomer. I would have liked to seen him in the JGC as I think he's more suited for the longer distances. He may be at a disadvantage in this race since he comes from far off the pace. If he should win this race I would really like to see him in the BC. Another who's pedigree I like is Rattlesnake Bridge. His sire is a son of Pulpit as is J W Blue's but I happen to like Blue's dam better. The snake is another who likes to come from off the pace. He beat Blue in the Travers but Blue was the only one gaining on Thirsty that day. That brings me to my other pedigree horse in here, To Honor And Serve. THAS has a ton of speed and if Dutrow decides, as he's hinted, to scratch Rush Now, that would leave THAS as the lone speed. If that happens then he could set his own pace and be mighty hard to catch unless he's not really back to his old self. I'm wondering what the circumstances are that has JR riding the Snake rather than THAS.
   At any rate here's how I rate them by pedigree:

If Rush Now is scratched;
To Honor And To Serve
J W Blue
Rattlesnake Bridge
Ruler On Ice

If Rush Now runs;
J W Blue
Rattlesnake Bridge
To Honor And Serve
Ruler On Ice

Ruler could be much closer as he does have a little speed on occasion but I'm handicapping by my pedigree likes and although he doesn't have a bad pedigree I much prefer the other three.
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Natalma and Summer Stakes

   I was really impressed with Northern Passion. Right now I would favor her in the Breeders Cup. Shes bred to run all day and I think she will get better as the distance gets longer. I think the fillies looked better as a group than the colts.
   Dayatthespa ran a nice race and might do well at the longer distances if rated off the pace more. I will say, she got beat by a really good one today so she looks to have a bright future also.
   I wasn't that impressed with the colts. Finale was all out to beat Excaper who is a nicely bred colt but I think he has some distance limitations. Excaper will, in my opinion, have trouble getting much over a mile. I think Daddy Nose Best is going to be a little slow coming into his own but has a lot of potential.
   I want to congratulate my friend who's a partner in Dayatthespa. I won't mention his name right now because I don't know if he would appreciate it. I hope they have a lot of success with her.
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A few 2 yr old Turf pedigrees

Here are a few that I like that are running today at WO.

Fillies;
Hard Not To Like
Northern Passion
Stephanie's Kitten
Evil Kitten

Colts;
Finale
Burn The Mortgage
Daddy Nose Best
Maritimer
Excaper

I'm planning an update on all my 2 yr old pedigrees before the BC.

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INTENT

Definition of INTENT

1

a : the act or fact of intending : purpose; especially : the design or purpose to commit a wrongful or criminal act <admitted wounding him with intent> b : the state of mind with which an act is done : volition

2

: a usually clearly formulated or planned intention : aim <the director's intent>

   You may wonder what this has to do with horse racing; everything! You may handicap a race and decide that horse A is better than Horse B but if horse A's trainer does not intend to try today it doesn't matter how good the horse might be.
   In this post I am going to try to explain how I go about deciding to bet or not to bet. Many years ago I asked an old timer, who was an expert handicapper if he could have one question answered, regarding a race in question, what would it be? Without hesitation, he said, "Who's going to run good today?. I never forgot that and although I spent a lot of years with speed and pace handicapping, I found that well meant horses were the best path to winning long term. My signature statement is, "People Run Horse Racing, Horses Just Run!".

   When asking what a trainers intentions are today a lot depends on the type of race being considered. If it's a stakes race with a big purse one must assume the trainer wants to win for several reasons. First of all, the owners of high class horses are normally only interested in winning a big race. They may or may not place a bet but I don't think many do for the simple reason that they don't need the money. They like the prestige that comes with winning big races and owning a champion. The more big races a trainer wins the more likely he is to get the better future prospects along with higher fees. So, if we assume that virtually all the entries in high class races want to win, the logical move is to then try to decide who is going to win. In most cases of this sort we are basically reduced to a guessing game unless of course you are willing to back favorites most of the time. The high class horses are, for the most part, trained into condition, which is a very tricky process. I reserve these type races for my fun bets. Oddly enough, I do quite well with these bets, especially with the 3 yr olds on the Triple Crown Trail. The reason I do well is I handicap by pedigree and many times this points to horses that have a lot of potential that hasn't been realized as yet.

   Most of us that are regular bettors trying to turn a profit are betting on claiming races which are the bread and butter of racing. There are all types of claiming horses which include those that are just a few notches below the very best and those that make up the lower rungs of the ladder. The latter are my bread and butter! I don't play allowance races, maiden special weights 2 yr olds, or turf races. My reasoning is that in allowance races there may be some top of the line horses in it that are tuning up for something bigger and better. It is done but is risky business for a trainer to try to engineer a betting coup when there may be horses of much better caliber in the race. The same reasoning applies to the maiden special weights. The 2 yr old races usually have a bunch of first time starters and a lot of others that can improve tremendously from race to race so they are out, too many unknowable factors. I don't play turf races because too many trainers use the turf to condition dirt horses. I have also seen hundreds of sharp, cheap claimers coming off the dirt that have never or seldom run on the grass jump up and beat much higher class horses on the grass. Trying to guess who is out to win and who is in there for conditioning purposes is a losing game. I also eliminate starter allowances and handicap races because this is another type race where there may be a very classy horse that just happens to meet the conditions or, because they can't be claimed, horses that are only in the race for the exercise.  I therefore restrict my play to straight claiming races on the dirt and there are more than enough of those to keep anyone in action.

   Trainers attempting to set up a betting coup will use many different moves to get the horse in winning condition while at the same time hiding the horse's form so as to deceive bettors into thinking the horse is a dud. There can be a series or combinations of class, distance, surface, running style and jockey switches to accomplish this. Betting stables and trainers will do all they can to get higher odds on their horse when it is sent to win. By these different patterns, if one is attuned to them, is how the trainers INTENT can be deciphered. Some trainers, as in all other professions, are much better than others, and in fact, some are downright lousy at what they do. Even in the claiming ranks there are what's known today as "Super Trainers". These are trainers that, although dealing with claiming horses, have a very high win percentage. There are a couple of these at most tracks and I try to avoid races where they have an entry unless my choice is very good odds, but even then I am very wary. These trainers normally have a lot of horses from some well heeled owners and their primary interest is also in winning as many races as possible. This type trainer earns his money from per Diem fees and his percentage of winning purses and is reluctant to place a bet with his own money.

   My basic strategy is to scan, with my eyes, as I don't use computer programs, the claiming races at most tracks running and try to spot horses that I think are well intended. It only takes me about 30 seconds or less to scan a race because I have embedded in my mind different patterns of running lines, class moves, etc. Once I spot what I think is a well intended horse I then proceed to evaluate other factors such as his placement as regards class, distance, jockey and so on. I may then go the the result charts and the replay of the horse's last few races. I am trying now to decide if the trainer's intent was to purposely make the horse look bad or if the horse has been trying and just doesn't have what it takes to win. Sometimes I'm right and often times wrong in my assessment but when right the odds usually make up for the wrongs. Remember, we have got to beat the prices regardless of the win percentage

   I would actually have to write a book to describe, step by step, the entire process of how to determine the trainers intent and of course, once this was made public, it would soon become worthless. I can however give you a few hints to describe when a trainers intent is usually not to win but to condition the horse. For example; a horse that's a proven router, unless it has displayed speed in a sprint or has won at a shorter distance, is entered in a sprint off a layoff you can deduce it's prepping for a longer race. Another is a horse that returns from a layoff with a bang-up race and is jumped in class in it's next race. Most horses that run a hard race off a layoff need a couple of races to recuperate. Many trainers will drop this type in class in it's next start with the best of intentions but I've found these to be very bad bets on two counts. One is that the horse will usually go off at short odds and the other is the trainer is hoping, even though he knows the horse will probably bounce, that the drop in class will compensate for the expected regression in the horse's form. The trainer that jumps this type in class knows the race took a lot out of the horse and will run it in higher class til it regains it's form.

   Another point when considering the intent of the trainer is that I find that most trainers are either impatient or tend to overestimate the condition of the horse. They will shoot with the horse too soon mostly because they have a preconceived plan. The plan may be to bring a horse off a layoff and give it one race and drop it in it's next race with intent to win. You can see many of this type every day but too many times the trainer over estimates the horse's condition and it comes up short, where as, had he given the horse one more easy race, the horse would probably have won.

   When we decide the trainers intent is to win we can use another factor to determine if we are correct in our assessment and that is the odds board. The biggest majority of well intended horses will get action at the windows. In this case one must be careful to note whether the horse deserves to be bet or not. If the horse shows good form and class ability, comes from a top stable with a live jock up, we would expect it to get bet. It's the ones that have some hidden form and what looks like other detrimental facts that garner action that are the live stable horses. If this applies to the horse we are considering it then becomes another positive factor as to the trainers intentions. There are exceptions to this however. I have a couple of friends that have very sophisticated programs to analyze the betting action on races. They have informed me that in this day and age of exotic betting there are lots of cases where the connections do NOT bet the horse to win but bet it in the exotics. They try to hide the money so as not to give their plans away. You have probably asked your self many times how an exacta or double could pay so little when a long shot wins the race. Hidden money is the reason! The reason I mention this is that it is sometimes easy to pass up a big long shot because it seems like no money shows up on it.

   In conclusion, the intent is of utmost importance in handicapping. It can point one to winners and also help to eliminate losers. It takes a lot of practice and experience but it can be learned if one takes an out-of-the-box approach. Look for moves they don't seem to make sense and try to figure why it's being made. There are many clues to a trainers intent but if you fail to recognize what is going on your going to back a lot of horses that are not even giving a try.

   This is not an inducement to subscribe to my selection service but I would like to mention that many of my clients have told me that it is worth the price just to get my selections to see how to apply the handicapping factors I endorse. The only other way I could teach my methods would be in a one on one class room setting. Writing a book is out for obvious reasons.
I will be blogging some more important stuff in the near future so stay tuned.
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Promising 2 yr old Pedigrees

Adding a couple for today that are going in the Del Mar Fut.

Creative Cause
Currency Swap
Drill
Exfactor
Hunt Crossing
Power World
Red Duke
Sheer Talent
Union Rags

Horses going today; Creative Cause, Drill, Sheer Talent