Arkansas Derby Sat. 4/12/14

Arkansas Derby

Sat. 4/12/14  OP  R11

There have been 31 races so far that offer Derby points and there have been 27 different winners. I'm not sure what this means as to the quality of this years crop but it looks like California Chrome is the best of them based on his performance so far.

Some trainers have taken a chance and put all their eggs in one basket and it hasn't worked so well and they have missed a chance to get to the big show. There are only three races left in which points may be picked up and two are this weekend leaving the Lexington which only offers 10 points to the winner. So, it looks like the two races today, the Blue Grass and the ARK Derby, will probably be the last chance for most. One would think this race would have a full field but there are only 9 entries which probably means a lot of trainers are no longer looking at the Derby and pointing for the Preakness.

The big question in this race is Bayern, at least in my opinion. His pedigree looks nice but I don't know if he can get the Derby distance. Baffert does so well bringing horses to Oaklawn that we can be almost sure this one will be ready for a big race and Stevens has made the trip, probably because he doesn't think Candy Boy will have enough points to make the Derby.

The contenders here are also the ones with the best pedigrees so I'm not looking for a big upset.

Strong Mandate is one I had been high on but he just hasn't put it together yet. I think that early on he was regarded as a speed horse but that hasn't worked out for him. In the Southwest he got off to a bad start and closed very nicely but had too much to do. I believe he would be much better with a stalking trip and that's what I'm looking for today.

Tapiture has been good in all his races and is very game. He is bred for distance and is the one to beat here plus Joel switches to him from Strong Mandate. I do feel that Joel wasn't the right fit for SM because I thought he was too aggressive.

Bayern looks to be a fast one but he did put up slow fractions at SA and I have doubts about his distance abilities.

Ride On Curlin is a nice horse but I think he is just a cut below these and would have to run really big to take this.

Conquest Titan has shown signs of getting better and if they fold up front he may have a chance.

1- #9  Strong Mandate
2- #3  Tapiture
3- # 8 Bayern
4- #4  Ride On Curlin
Long Shot-  Conquest Titan