It has dawned on me that the reason this years 3 yr old crop has been so bad is that there are no quality front runners. Early on we had Uncle Mo until whatever happened to him happened. Then there was The Factor who was extremely fast but it was decided he was distance challenged. There may have been a few who, when the lone speed, could hang in but none of any real quality.
Shackleford just happened to be the best of a bad lot of speed horses. He has actually only held on to win one graded race and if Animal Kingdom hadn't had such a bad start Shack would have NO graded wins. This is a horse that was the front runner for 3 yr old of the year. Once again he gets caught by a horse coming from way out of it.
So what do these 2 races tell me?
Stay Thirsty has finally shown what he can do and this was the first graded win of the year won by open lengths and from a horse that didn't lay way back early. He is bred to run long and, if he moves forward off this race, will be mighty tough to beat in the Travers.
Coil is also bred to run all day and having had a bad start in the Haskell, he does have a ton of speed and should be able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. He has a lot of upside and could very well win the Travers.
I don't think Shackleford will go to the Travers for two reasons. The first is that I don't think he can handle 1 1/4 against the two mentioned above. The only way he can get that distance is if he's loose on the lead and can slow the pace way down.
The other reason is that if the connections want the 3 yr old title they don't want to take a chance against Coil again and also the distinct possibility of Thirsty winning. If Shack were in there and Thirsty beats Coil who has beaten Shack, the 3yr old title would be up in the air.
If a scenario develops like the one I just described then the title probably wouldn't be settled until someone wins another big race like the Jockey Gold Cup or the Breeders Classic and I don't think Shack can handle the distance of those races. I also doubt if any of these can win the BC unless Coil or Thirsty really step up to the plate.
To me the obvious thing for Shack is to go to another race and hope that Thirsty beats Coil in the Travers. I am also not totally discounting Alternation in the Travers. I thought he would be short in the Dandy, not having had a race in 2 months.
I'll look at the Travers when all the entries are in but it looks to be shaping up as one heluva race.
I'm starting to look at the pedigrees of this years 2 yr olds who might be heading to the BC. There's an awful lot to look at and is very time consuming but those big winners that are under the radar make it worthwhile.
Backstretch
No comments:
Post a Comment