So far it seems like no horse can put two big races back to back. I had been high on Stay thirsty since way back and he finally showed what he can do. The question is, can he do it again? He has a classic pedigree and should have no problem with the distance.
I was also impressed with J W Blue's breeding and after the AK Derby in which he had a bad post and wide, rough trip, I had posted that you would hear from him down the line. He's lost two tight finishes in a row but I think he will really like the added distance. Will be closing and if he doesn't run into trouble I expect him to be there at the finish.
Coil doesn't seem to have a really classic pedigree but it looks good enough to put him up there. He actually has speed but has shown he can come off the pace.
I don't think Thirsty or Coil and maybe someone else is going to let Shack get away with backing the pace down. He may last for a part if he can hold off Ruler but doesn't have the breeding for this distance.
Ruler On Ice is very steady and usually throws a good race. Breeding is so-so.
Raison D'etat is nicely bred and can probably handle the distance. Rattlesnake Bridge is another with a lot of points in his pedigree and should get the extra distance.
Going mostly on pedigree this is how I see it; I am revising my first thoughts.
Stay Thirsty........will probably stalk Shack and be in good position in stretch...only one with big win this year
Coil....................will lay off the pace but not as far back as last time
J W Blue............makes a big run ala Dialed In and Animal Kingdom...could win if pace is fast
Shackleford........may be forced to set pace again but must back it down in order to last
Raison D'etat......shouldn't be far off the pace
Rattlesnake Bridge...could move up more with an off track
Ruler On Ice.......needs to stay close
If the track comes up sloppy I will make a change to:
Stay Thirsty
Coil
Shackleford
J W Blue
Rattlesnake Bridge
Raison D'etat
Really a tough race and it all hinges on whether Thirsty shows up with his game suit on.
Backstretch
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Haskell & Jim Dandy Recap
It has dawned on me that the reason this years 3 yr old crop has been so bad is that there are no quality front runners. Early on we had Uncle Mo until whatever happened to him happened. Then there was The Factor who was extremely fast but it was decided he was distance challenged. There may have been a few who, when the lone speed, could hang in but none of any real quality.
Shackleford just happened to be the best of a bad lot of speed horses. He has actually only held on to win one graded race and if Animal Kingdom hadn't had such a bad start Shack would have NO graded wins. This is a horse that was the front runner for 3 yr old of the year. Once again he gets caught by a horse coming from way out of it.
So what do these 2 races tell me?
Stay Thirsty has finally shown what he can do and this was the first graded win of the year won by open lengths and from a horse that didn't lay way back early. He is bred to run long and, if he moves forward off this race, will be mighty tough to beat in the Travers.
Coil is also bred to run all day and having had a bad start in the Haskell, he does have a ton of speed and should be able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. He has a lot of upside and could very well win the Travers.
I don't think Shackleford will go to the Travers for two reasons. The first is that I don't think he can handle 1 1/4 against the two mentioned above. The only way he can get that distance is if he's loose on the lead and can slow the pace way down.
The other reason is that if the connections want the 3 yr old title they don't want to take a chance against Coil again and also the distinct possibility of Thirsty winning. If Shack were in there and Thirsty beats Coil who has beaten Shack, the 3yr old title would be up in the air.
If a scenario develops like the one I just described then the title probably wouldn't be settled until someone wins another big race like the Jockey Gold Cup or the Breeders Classic and I don't think Shack can handle the distance of those races. I also doubt if any of these can win the BC unless Coil or Thirsty really step up to the plate.
To me the obvious thing for Shack is to go to another race and hope that Thirsty beats Coil in the Travers. I am also not totally discounting Alternation in the Travers. I thought he would be short in the Dandy, not having had a race in 2 months.
I'll look at the Travers when all the entries are in but it looks to be shaping up as one heluva race.
I'm starting to look at the pedigrees of this years 2 yr olds who might be heading to the BC. There's an awful lot to look at and is very time consuming but those big winners that are under the radar make it worthwhile.
Backstretch
Shackleford just happened to be the best of a bad lot of speed horses. He has actually only held on to win one graded race and if Animal Kingdom hadn't had such a bad start Shack would have NO graded wins. This is a horse that was the front runner for 3 yr old of the year. Once again he gets caught by a horse coming from way out of it.
So what do these 2 races tell me?
Stay Thirsty has finally shown what he can do and this was the first graded win of the year won by open lengths and from a horse that didn't lay way back early. He is bred to run long and, if he moves forward off this race, will be mighty tough to beat in the Travers.
Coil is also bred to run all day and having had a bad start in the Haskell, he does have a ton of speed and should be able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. He has a lot of upside and could very well win the Travers.
I don't think Shackleford will go to the Travers for two reasons. The first is that I don't think he can handle 1 1/4 against the two mentioned above. The only way he can get that distance is if he's loose on the lead and can slow the pace way down.
The other reason is that if the connections want the 3 yr old title they don't want to take a chance against Coil again and also the distinct possibility of Thirsty winning. If Shack were in there and Thirsty beats Coil who has beaten Shack, the 3yr old title would be up in the air.
If a scenario develops like the one I just described then the title probably wouldn't be settled until someone wins another big race like the Jockey Gold Cup or the Breeders Classic and I don't think Shack can handle the distance of those races. I also doubt if any of these can win the BC unless Coil or Thirsty really step up to the plate.
To me the obvious thing for Shack is to go to another race and hope that Thirsty beats Coil in the Travers. I am also not totally discounting Alternation in the Travers. I thought he would be short in the Dandy, not having had a race in 2 months.
I'll look at the Travers when all the entries are in but it looks to be shaping up as one heluva race.
I'm starting to look at the pedigrees of this years 2 yr olds who might be heading to the BC. There's an awful lot to look at and is very time consuming but those big winners that are under the radar make it worthwhile.
Backstretch
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