Is handicapping for real or is it just a crock of doggy doo?
I happened to look at my bookshelf yesterday and noticed all the books I have on handicapping. I have read many of them several times, books by Ainslie, Christ, Beyer, Davidowitz, etc., and asked myself if I had learned anything from them. I have been reading and studying handicapping for over fifty years and have come to the conclusion that they are all full of sh*t.                                                                                         I was looking at Modern Pace Handicapping by Brohamer. One must be an MIT graduate to understand what he's talking about. Speed and pace handicappers, and I would bet that 90% of handicappers use that method, go through all those contortions to do what? Come up with the favorite? I can look at a race and in two minutes tell you the horses that figure to win and do it without a computer, calculator, or a pencil.
   They can do all the figures they want but they are still losers, just about every last one of them. Stop and think a moment about what they are doing. There's a guy with a pair of binoculars watching a race while it's running and he's making an eyeball guesstimate as to where each horse is on the track and how many lengths ahead or behind they are. Now this fact in itself tells us that every thing that is derived from these rough estimates can only be another set of rough estimates. And yet, these handicappers are trying to split hairs in hundredths of a second to find a perfect number that doesn't exist and never will.
   When thought about in a logical manner any reasonable person can see that to chase a fart in a windstorm is an exercise in futility and that's what handicapping is. Far from being an exact science, it doesn't even resemble science. No scientist in the world would place his faith in a foundation as shaky as the word of a chart caller.
   There are ways to make money playing horses but it damn sure isn't by handicapping numbers. Anybody that tells me they are a success at making money with horse racing by speed and pace handicapping may be fooling themselves but not me.
   Further proof lies in what one can see everyday on the internet, in newspapers and other media. There are dozens of "Handicappers" out there giving selections, some paid and some free. A lot of them sell ratings to guide the suckers to the best horses. A bunch of numbers that your supposed to decipher and apply to the horses.
   I have subscribed to some of these just to see what goes on with them. One guy gave me 15-20 horses a day and hit for a good percentage but always ended up losing money. Why would anyone pay to have someone give them a bunch of odds on horses when all you have to do is look at the tote board.
Then you have the guys that give you 4 horses in every race at 5-6 different tracks. They advise you to box these at a cost of better than a hundred bucks a race. I don't know about you but I'm not putting up 5 grand a day to bet when these same handicappers have no idea of which horses might win what races.

   The above thoughts are something I had posted on another website. Almost every day I am reminded of how true my words were.
   Let's just stop and use a little common sense and logic. We know that the public favorites win about 30% of the races. These horses are, for the most part, horses that "Figure" on paper. That is; they are the fastest or classiest or the most consistent. We also know that to play these horses is a losing proposition. You may lose a little slower, but lose you must. So, what really is handicapping? I would suppose it's the art of comparing one horse to another and trying to decide who will beat who. When one undertakes this task decisions must be made as to which of a multitude of factors is going to carry the most weight. When looking back at races that have been run you will find that factor "A" carried the most weight and in the next race factor "A" didn't mean a damned thing but factor "B" did and on down the line it goes.
   If one looks at the entries in a race with an experienced eye, most handicappers will come up with virtually the same horses. Oh, they may be a little different in the ranking order but they will be basically the same. The contenders are known and there are a whole bunch of reasons why one of these should win and one of them usually does but I'm only interested in the races they don't win.
   So if it's a losing proposition to bet the figures, what is one to do? If you know that a certain percentage of figure horses, (favorites) are going to win, but at much deflated prices, then it's logical to assume that there are other methods that will give a certain % of winners and if they are not the favorites then one can expect to turn a decent profit.
   I have devoted the better part of 60 yrs to finding horses that are well meant but have yet to show the form that would cause them to be hammered at the windows. One must learn to ANTICIPATE  a big effort from a horse, that is, before it tips it's hand that it's actually in form. Many horses I bet run second or third at big odds but I seldom bet them back because they are usually low odds after the good effort. The only question I ask myself is, "Who's going to run good today?". If your always on horses that are going to try today, although a try doesn't mean they can win, your going to get a certain % that will win. I am constantly getting on horses at 20/1 or more, and even if they run second, I usually pick up a nice exacta.
   Horse racing is far from being an exact science but there are so many handicappers out there, and I'm so glad there are for obvious reasons, that are looking for the magic number or the "Holy Grail" which does not exist. I have gotten into it many times with figure players who have the attitude that anything other than figures is totally false. What they don't understand is that I've been there and done that but they have never been where I am. It's sort of like talking to a kid where they can't understand that being near 80 yrs old, I have been where they are, but they can only hope to get where I am now.
   In order to beat the races the first thing one must keep in mind is my signature; "People run horse racing, horses just run!". There are so many intrinsic things involved in horse racing, things that have no logical explanation, at least to humans, but may make perfect sense to the horse.
   I'm hoping to find time in the near future to expand on this so stay tuned.
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