I really have to laugh when I read some comments on horse forums concerning pedigrees. As soon as the latest little prep race is run everyone has spotted the derby winner.
I like when they say," Oh, he's by so and so and should run all day." Or, "He's by so and so who never got beyond 8f so will never get the derby distance". As soon as I see these comments I know that the one making it doesn't know a chromosome from a frog egg.
The idea that one horse in a pedigree decides how good the pedigree might be is ludicrous. The way some people look at a pedigree reminds me of someone looking at a map to find how to get to a destination but they don't even know where they are to begin with.
Even the very best of breeders and pedigree consultants know that breeding is one huge crap shoot, so to make statements that because a horse is by a particular stallion or there is a certain sire somewhere in the blood, the quality of the horse is therefore decided, only serves to put their ignorance on display.
I will have some upcoming articles in my newsletter about breeding, such as:
Broodmares and Copper
Breeding Sprinters With Stayers
Breeding from unraced horses, and other articles I may come up with.
Backstretch
Monday, January 9, 2012
Friday, January 6, 2012
Count Fleet and Sham Stakes
As I said in a previous post, I will no longer be posting my picks for the Triple Crown preps. I will be covering them in my newsletter. I will on occasion post some pedigree items here but I am hard pressed for time so it will not be on a regular basis.
Best of luck,
Backstretch
Best of luck,
Backstretch
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Newsletter
My first newsletter will be going out this weekend. One of the features will be the race or races of the week on the TC trail so I will be sending it on Fri. nights or Sat. mornings.
This week I will be covering the first race on the TC trail in NY., the Count Fleet. It's not a graded race but is a stepping stone to the graded races in NY. I probably wouldn't cover it but there are a couple in there that have classic derby pedigrees and a good win would put it in the thick of things going forward.
There will also be something concerning Hansen and what his future looks like.
Also, some comments on the Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer lines.
To subscribe, inquire by e-mail...........backstretch33@gmail.com
Backstretch
This week I will be covering the first race on the TC trail in NY., the Count Fleet. It's not a graded race but is a stepping stone to the graded races in NY. I probably wouldn't cover it but there are a couple in there that have classic derby pedigrees and a good win would put it in the thick of things going forward.
There will also be something concerning Hansen and what his future looks like.
Also, some comments on the Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer lines.
To subscribe, inquire by e-mail...........backstretch33@gmail.com
Backstretch
Sunday, December 25, 2011
Nine of the last 14 derby winners have had one of my common denominator factors in their pedigree. I have found over the years that there are certain characteristics in the pedigrees of derby winners that seem to dominate.Since 65% of derby winners of the last 14 years qualify on these factors I feel I have a better than even chance of having the derby winner on my list of contenders.
Because there are usually 400 or more nominated to the derby it's a difficult chore to go through their pedigrees and attempt to rate them. Also, a pedigree isn't worth much if the horse doesn't show some talent in its races so during the season I try to narrow the field by a combination of performance and pedigree. I usually nail some big priced winners along the way because of their pedigree potential and the fact that they haven't yet lived up to that potential. For instance; if you go through my blogs you will see that I had Watch Me Go as a serious contender in one of the early races and he won at over 40/1. I also picked Archarcharch 2 times at 15/1. I had Animal Kingdom as one of my top choices for the derby and made a bet with Arch and Animal Kingdom on top and you know AK won @ 20/1.
This year should produce a lot more interesting races than last year because there are a lot more quality speed horses this year. Last year we had Shackleford and that was about it. He never really got challenged on the front end by any front runners other than sprinters. We should see a lot of pace in the coming races which will make for better racing.
I am giving a partial list of my contenders now and will be adjusting the list as the season progresses.
Listed in alphabetical order:
Alpha
Currency Swap
Done Talking
Dullahan
El Padrino
Empire Way
Exfactor
Gemologist
Hansen
Hunt Crossing
Managed Account
Motor City
Parish Hall
Power
Power World
Seve
Speightscity
Souper Speedy
Union Rags
Some of these have virtually eliminated themselves already but it's a little early to toss them until they have had a chance over a distance of ground. There are a few that I like a lot more than the rest, and one in particular, that I think is much better than all of them. Just have to take it race by race to what develops as some late starters enter the picture. There are probably some nicely bred horses I haven't seen yet.
This year I will not be blogging my pedigree analysis and race selections. I will be sending the information in a weekly newsletter that is being developed. If you are interested in subscribing to my newsletter which will also contain articles on "Out of the Box" handicapping, please inquire by e-mail.
backstretch33@gmail.com
Backstretch
Because there are usually 400 or more nominated to the derby it's a difficult chore to go through their pedigrees and attempt to rate them. Also, a pedigree isn't worth much if the horse doesn't show some talent in its races so during the season I try to narrow the field by a combination of performance and pedigree. I usually nail some big priced winners along the way because of their pedigree potential and the fact that they haven't yet lived up to that potential. For instance; if you go through my blogs you will see that I had Watch Me Go as a serious contender in one of the early races and he won at over 40/1. I also picked Archarcharch 2 times at 15/1. I had Animal Kingdom as one of my top choices for the derby and made a bet with Arch and Animal Kingdom on top and you know AK won @ 20/1.
This year should produce a lot more interesting races than last year because there are a lot more quality speed horses this year. Last year we had Shackleford and that was about it. He never really got challenged on the front end by any front runners other than sprinters. We should see a lot of pace in the coming races which will make for better racing.
I am giving a partial list of my contenders now and will be adjusting the list as the season progresses.
Listed in alphabetical order:
Alpha
Currency Swap
Done Talking
Dullahan
El Padrino
Empire Way
Exfactor
Gemologist
Hansen
Hunt Crossing
Managed Account
Motor City
Parish Hall
Power
Power World
Seve
Speightscity
Souper Speedy
Union Rags
Some of these have virtually eliminated themselves already but it's a little early to toss them until they have had a chance over a distance of ground. There are a few that I like a lot more than the rest, and one in particular, that I think is much better than all of them. Just have to take it race by race to what develops as some late starters enter the picture. There are probably some nicely bred horses I haven't seen yet.
This year I will not be blogging my pedigree analysis and race selections. I will be sending the information in a weekly newsletter that is being developed. If you are interested in subscribing to my newsletter which will also contain articles on "Out of the Box" handicapping, please inquire by e-mail.
backstretch33@gmail.com
Backstretch
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Time Out
Due to health issues I haven't been posting. I plan to do a lot of work on the Triple Crown Trail after the new year begins.
I have a newsletter in the works where I will discuss pedigrees and a lot of handicapping stuff. As many of you know, I am an "Out of the Box" long shot handicapper and will give some of my opinions on conventional handicapping and it's pitfalls.
I have a newsletter in the works where I will discuss pedigrees and a lot of handicapping stuff. As many of you know, I am an "Out of the Box" long shot handicapper and will give some of my opinions on conventional handicapping and it's pitfalls.
Til next year;
MERRY CHRISTMAS
and
HAPPY NEW YEAR
Backstretch
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Remsen and Jockey Club Recap
Sometimes handicappers think that the pace of a race is slow but we don't really know how hard the horses were really running. The fractions in the Remsen would lead one to believe they were going slow up front but the way the race unfolded might say otherwise. Super Speedy was pressed all the way by Our Entourage into deep stretch. A couple others, especially Speightscity who has good speed, couldn't keep up, which might mean they weren't really going as slow as we might think.
I have been hoping we might see some speed horses this year that can carry their speed a long way unlike last year when the only front runner that stayed healthy was Shackelford.
In the case of the Remsen, we are left with 2 possibilities, either the pace was slow or it wasn't. If it wasn't there is the chance that Super Speedy is a good one. This was only his second race and has lots of room to improve on that big jump in distance. He has a beautiful pedigree that should carry him at the longer distances.
On the other hand, if he was really going that slow, I am impressed by Done Talking who came a long, long way to only get beaten by a length. The winner had a perfect stalking trip and took advantage of Souper Speedy having to finally put Our Entourage away in the stretch. The connections of O'prado Again feel they have a derby horse, which he might be, but I like their other horse Dullahan better for the derby distance.
As for the Jockey Club race, Gemologist can't be faulted because he is undefeated. He has good speed and showed he can also sit back a little and pounce. My problem with him is that Pletcher always has his horses ready early but he usually manages to squeeze the lemon dry by derby time. They are planning to take the same route as they did with Super Saver. I think Pletcher was actually surprised when Super Saver won the derby so I don't put too much stock in his plans. I also don't think Gemologist is bred for the Derby or Belmont distance. Of course that's just my opinion. Ever So Lucky was going to try to wire the field and almost pulled it off but he's another that I don't think can get 1 1/4 miles. He did run a little too quick early and hung in but I think distance will be a factor with him. Timely Tally closed a ton and it's the second time he's been close to Geologist so might be better down the line. Timely Tally is ridden by Borel and he also has the mount on another good closer in Motor City and both are bred to get the distance. I wonder who he likes better?
As to looking for the speed horse of the year I am impressed with Hansen. I really think if the track wasn't biased in the Breeders Cup he may have won by 10 or more. His breeding also tells me he can run all day but we have got to see what happens when a few of the speedsters meet.
Now we have got to wait and see what happens this winter down in Fl at GP and Tampa. Don't forget, a lot of Derby contenders don't break their maiden till this time of year. Should be interesting.
Backstretch
I have been hoping we might see some speed horses this year that can carry their speed a long way unlike last year when the only front runner that stayed healthy was Shackelford.
In the case of the Remsen, we are left with 2 possibilities, either the pace was slow or it wasn't. If it wasn't there is the chance that Super Speedy is a good one. This was only his second race and has lots of room to improve on that big jump in distance. He has a beautiful pedigree that should carry him at the longer distances.
On the other hand, if he was really going that slow, I am impressed by Done Talking who came a long, long way to only get beaten by a length. The winner had a perfect stalking trip and took advantage of Souper Speedy having to finally put Our Entourage away in the stretch. The connections of O'prado Again feel they have a derby horse, which he might be, but I like their other horse Dullahan better for the derby distance.
As for the Jockey Club race, Gemologist can't be faulted because he is undefeated. He has good speed and showed he can also sit back a little and pounce. My problem with him is that Pletcher always has his horses ready early but he usually manages to squeeze the lemon dry by derby time. They are planning to take the same route as they did with Super Saver. I think Pletcher was actually surprised when Super Saver won the derby so I don't put too much stock in his plans. I also don't think Gemologist is bred for the Derby or Belmont distance. Of course that's just my opinion. Ever So Lucky was going to try to wire the field and almost pulled it off but he's another that I don't think can get 1 1/4 miles. He did run a little too quick early and hung in but I think distance will be a factor with him. Timely Tally closed a ton and it's the second time he's been close to Geologist so might be better down the line. Timely Tally is ridden by Borel and he also has the mount on another good closer in Motor City and both are bred to get the distance. I wonder who he likes better?
As to looking for the speed horse of the year I am impressed with Hansen. I really think if the track wasn't biased in the Breeders Cup he may have won by 10 or more. His breeding also tells me he can run all day but we have got to see what happens when a few of the speedsters meet.
Now we have got to wait and see what happens this winter down in Fl at GP and Tampa. Don't forget, a lot of Derby contenders don't break their maiden till this time of year. Should be interesting.
Backstretch
Friday, November 25, 2011
Remsen and KY Jockey Club
It looks to me that this years road to the Triple Crown should get very interesting. I think this years crop has a lot more horses with classical breeding than last year. As you know, after the mishandling of Uncle Mo, last years races were mostly won by different horses and nobody showed they were superior to the rest. There were a few good ones along the way but it seems most of them succumbed to injury before they were able to accomplish very much.
Last years Remsen only had 5 entries but this year there are 10 and most of them are very nicely bred and have been showing some talent already. This should be a very contentious race and judging from the pedigrees, I don't think many of them can be written off yet even in defeat.
The jockey Club doesn't look as competitive as the Remsen but a couple of nice ones could emerge from it.
Remsen: In order of my pedigree preference..
Souper Speedy....... surprised @ 30/1 in debut in mud...super pedigree but has to prove more.
Speightscity.........fantastic pedigree...has gone a distance ...chased Hansen on tiring track
Stephanoatsee.....inbred to great derby winning line...great trainer
Done Talking........bred to get the distance...is getting a nice foundation..
El Padrino............great pedigree...blew them away in first try at a mile..
Managed Account...another with a nice pedigree...looks to be improving
All the entries are nicely bred but right now some are more advanced than others..as we go into next year and the TC preps they will start to weed themselves out. I feel that this may be a very important race because of the abundance of top notch breeding and the talent already shown..Don't be too surprised to see some big prices on the board
Jockey Club; some nice ones in here but not nearly as good as in the Remsen.
Cyber Secret....could be a real good one
Gemologist.......2 for 2 so far...Pletcher usually has them ready early.
Timely Tally.....another from a great derby winning line.
Seve.............still a maiden and must show something on dirt but has a really nice pedigree.
Ever So Lucky...may be real good til the derby distance comes up.
Right now we will just have to let them weed themselves out...it takes talent and a pedigree...I like to see both because some have talent but can't get the classic distances and some are bred right but can't run to their pedigrees..I hope to see some this year that are really talented and have a classic pedigree...what we need is a few that can run up front and sustain their speed...last year all we had was Shackleford and he was not bred for the classics.
Last years Remsen only had 5 entries but this year there are 10 and most of them are very nicely bred and have been showing some talent already. This should be a very contentious race and judging from the pedigrees, I don't think many of them can be written off yet even in defeat.
The jockey Club doesn't look as competitive as the Remsen but a couple of nice ones could emerge from it.
Remsen: In order of my pedigree preference..
Souper Speedy....... surprised @ 30/1 in debut in mud...super pedigree but has to prove more.
Speightscity.........fantastic pedigree...has gone a distance ...chased Hansen on tiring track
Stephanoatsee.....inbred to great derby winning line...great trainer
Done Talking........bred to get the distance...is getting a nice foundation..
El Padrino............great pedigree...blew them away in first try at a mile..
Managed Account...another with a nice pedigree...looks to be improving
All the entries are nicely bred but right now some are more advanced than others..as we go into next year and the TC preps they will start to weed themselves out. I feel that this may be a very important race because of the abundance of top notch breeding and the talent already shown..Don't be too surprised to see some big prices on the board
Jockey Club; some nice ones in here but not nearly as good as in the Remsen.
Cyber Secret....could be a real good one
Gemologist.......2 for 2 so far...Pletcher usually has them ready early.
Timely Tally.....another from a great derby winning line.
Seve.............still a maiden and must show something on dirt but has a really nice pedigree.
Ever So Lucky...may be real good til the derby distance comes up.
Right now we will just have to let them weed themselves out...it takes talent and a pedigree...I like to see both because some have talent but can't get the classic distances and some are bred right but can't run to their pedigrees..I hope to see some this year that are really talented and have a classic pedigree...what we need is a few that can run up front and sustain their speed...last year all we had was Shackleford and he was not bred for the classics.
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