Nine of the last 14 derby winners have had one of my common denominator factors in their pedigree. I have found over the years that there are certain characteristics in the pedigrees of derby winners that seem to dominate.Since 65% of derby winners of the last 14 years qualify on these factors I feel I have a better than even chance of having the derby winner on my list of contenders.

   Because there are usually 400 or more nominated to the derby it's a difficult chore to go through their pedigrees and attempt to rate them. Also, a pedigree isn't worth much if the horse doesn't show some talent in its races so during the season I try to narrow the field by a combination of performance and pedigree. I usually nail some big priced winners along the way because of their pedigree potential and the fact that they haven't yet lived up to that potential. For instance; if you go through my blogs you will see that I had Watch Me Go as a serious contender in one of the early races and he won at over 40/1. I also picked Archarcharch 2 times at 15/1. I had Animal Kingdom as one of my top choices for the derby and made a bet with Arch and Animal Kingdom on top and you know AK won @ 20/1.

This year should produce a lot more interesting races than last year because there are a lot more quality speed horses this year. Last year we had Shackleford and that was about it. He never really got challenged on the front end by any front runners other than sprinters. We should see a lot of pace in the coming races which will make for better racing.

I am giving a partial list of my contenders now and will be adjusting the list as the season progresses.

Listed in alphabetical order:

Alpha
Currency Swap
Done Talking
Dullahan
El Padrino
Empire Way
Exfactor
Gemologist
Hansen
Hunt Crossing
Managed Account
Motor City
Parish Hall
Power
Power World
Seve
Speightscity
Souper Speedy
Union Rags
   Some of these have virtually eliminated themselves already but it's a little early to toss them until they have had a chance over a distance of ground. There are a few that I like a lot more than the rest, and one in particular, that I think is much better than all of them. Just have to take it race by race to what develops as some late starters enter the picture. There are probably some nicely bred horses I haven't seen yet.

   This year I will not be blogging my pedigree analysis and race selections. I will be sending the information in a weekly newsletter that is being developed. If you are interested in subscribing to my newsletter which will also contain articles on "Out of the Box" handicapping, please inquire by e-mail.
backstretch33@gmail.com

Backstretch  

Time Out

   Due to health issues I haven't been posting. I plan to do a lot of work on the Triple Crown Trail after the new year begins.
   I have a newsletter in the works where I will discuss pedigrees and a lot of handicapping stuff. As many of you know, I am an "Out of the Box" long shot handicapper and will give some of my opinions on conventional handicapping and it's pitfalls.

   Til next year;

MERRY CHRISTMAS

and

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Backstretch