Saturday, October 5, 2013

Champagne and Breeders Futurity Sat. 10/5/13

Champagne Stakes G1

Before I get into the races I'd just like to say a few words about pedigree handicapping. There seems to be quite a few writers that get into a horse's pedigree after the fact. By that, I mean that after a horse has won a stakes race they tend to tell us that this or that horse in the pedigree won such and such a race at whatever distance and this horse should go on to bigger and better things.

The problem is, unless the horse in question is really inbred it's very difficult to determine who in the pedigree is going to exert the most influence on the foal. Often, there are many different line making up the pedigree and I don't see how it's possible to say which mares or sires are going to have the most say in how good the foal will be.One just has to wait and see what develops.

Just because I don't care much for a horse's pedigree doesn't, in most cases, mean the horse can't be a real good one. However, I have had a lot of success predicting which ones will be good at the Classic distances. It doesn't take a lot of pedigree to be good at the shorter distances.

Sat. 10/5/13  BEL  R10

I'm finding it very hard to get a feel for most of the pedigrees in this race. I do notice an abundance of horses this year with the dam sires being of the RAN line, more than I've seen in a long time. It seems to me to be a toss up as to how good this type will be. The RAN line is very good as the sire line but when the mares are of that line they just don't seem to be able to get the classic distances, like Verrazano and Hansen.

Strong Mandate has a pedigree I like very much. It has a lot in common with Oxbow and he should get the longer distances and this type is also durable.

Honor Code is another with some nice breeding but he came from the clouds to win his only start and I'm not too fond of stone closers but have to wait to see if he does show more speed down the line.

Debt Ceiling has a pedigree that I a little up in the air on. Could go either way so I'll give him a little more time.

Havana has the old Fair Play line as the dam sire and this line has been doing well in recent years but I'm not crazy about the rest of the pedigree.

1- Strong Mandate
2- Honor Code
3- Debt Ceiling
4- Havana
Longshot- Grand Arrival

Breeders Futurity

Sat.  10/5/13  KEE  R8

I like this race much better than the NY race because the pedigrees I like are much longer odds.

Tiznowforamerica has a couple of patterns I really like and should be able to run all day. Post may be a problem if he wants to be up close early but has a very patient jock and may lay back and try to make a run.

Arctic Slope is bred for a distance and had no trouble in his first two starts getting this distance. Looks like the stalking type and may be in position to take this.

Kendall's Boy looks to have the goods to be a good one and picks up Gomez. Has speed and a good post so he should contend.

We Miss Artie has a really nice pedigree except for one factor. I never see these types with the RAN mares in key slots that are able to get the classic distances. This however, is not a classic distance and this kind of breeding is usually very fast up to 1 1/8 so he could very well take this.

1- Tiznowforamerica
2- Arctic Slope
3- Kendall's Boy
4- We Miss Artie