Newsletter #72 Sat. 6/8/13
BEL R11 Belmont Stakes G1
I guess the question is, with the weather being what it is, are we going to get a replay of the Derby? It seems that would be the case according to what a lot of handicappers are saying.
Personally, I don't think we will for a couple of reasons. One is that Belmont and CD are two entirely different tracks and I don't think a sloppy Belmont will have the effect on speed horses that CD did. Another reason is that, and I suppose I'm really being contrary here, is that I don't feel like the pace is going to be all that fast in this race. The jocks know that they need to have patience with their mounts in order to get the longer distance of this race so they would have to be nuts to get into any kind of speed duel.
The key will probably be whether or not there is any kind of a bias but we won't know this until the race is upon us so there may be a lot of last minute adjustments to be made.
Since I have based almost all my handicapping of these races on the pedigrees I'm not about to jump ship now and will make my selections based on the breeding of these.
As to the pedigrees, here are the ones I like;
Oxbow- He has the pedigree that I have liked the most since day one. Even though he has been severely compromised in a lot of his races he always manages to get involved in the race and is a very tough and game colt. He may not be well suited for this track or this race but I am sticking with him. I think he has a very good post with the main speed inside and outside so he should have a clear shot at position. This pedigree gets it's power from the dam sire cross of the old Man O' War line brought into the inbred Nearco line. Should get the distance.
Vyjack- I like his pedigree almost as much as Ox and it's really kind of hard to choose between them. He had a bad post in the Derby and was up there near the pace early but that was not the place to be. That was the only bad race this guy has run and to discount him because of it might be a big mistake, especially since he should go off long. This is a horse that usually ran up on the pace until he ran his best race winning the Gotham with a change of tactics coming from way out of it. He does have enough speed to wrangle good position and having a very patient rider up will be dangerous if the track favors closers. One other point concerning his pedigree; I have read numerous experts that say he is not bred to get the distance and I couldn't disagree more. I think the greatest influence in his pedigree is coming from the Princequillo line on his dam side and if that line can't get the distance I don't know who could.
Revolutionary- This is another I like having the Ribot line on the dam side although I like to see a little more inbreeding on the sire side. It is still very nice and any doubts were erased by his performances. I'd like to see him a tad closer to the pace which I think he's capable of.
Overanalyze- Has a nice cross with the dam sire line of Sword Dancer who's influence says he should handle any distance. The thing this guy lacks is consistency but he may be due for a good race and is dangerous on his best. These type pedigrees say that the horse is capable of waking up at any time.
Frac Daddy- Very much like the one above with the dam sire line of Sword Dance. He just hasn't run to his potential yet and might never but still has a chance of throwing a big one when we least expect it.
Midnight Taboo- I like this pedigree very much but he may need more experience. He has the makings of a real good one but this is a big jump up so may be a little over matched at this point in time.
Orb- Having the Sword Dancer down on the dam side crossed into the Bold Ruler inbreeding of the A.P. Indy line makes for a real classical pedigree. He reeled off 5 in a row including the Derby but his last was not up to par for him. It's possible that, rather than having an excuse in his last, he may be regressing somewhat. He may bounce right back but I want to try to beat him because of the odds.
Freedom Child- As is typical with the MR P mares in key positions in the pedigree, this is a fast horse but I have found that they are distance challenged unless allowed to cruise on the front end. If the track is sloppy and favors speed he could take them a long way but will get hooked somewhere along the line, especially by Oxbow, and I think he will fade in the lane.
Unlimited Budget- A very nicely bred filly but I think she is a little over matched. She is nice but is no Rags To Riches and I don't think the post will help her to get the position she wants.
So, a lot depends on the track condition and any bias that may exist.
1- Oxbow
2- Vyjack
3- Revolutionary
4- Orb
Long Shots- Overanalyze, Frac Daddy, Midnight Taboo
I'm going to play tris and supers with 7 and 11 on top...7/2,5,9,11/2,5,9,11/1,2,3,5,8,9,11....the same bet with the 11 on top....
Good Luck
RECAP
In my opinion the Preakness and Belmont were more proof as to what a fluke race the Derby was. Of the top 3 in the Derby, Orb was the only one around at the finish of the next 2 races and he could only manage a 4th and a 3rd. As I've said, one can't use a race where the top finishers had it handed to them on a silver platter to handicap a future race. Just draw a line through it.
The Belmont was a difficult race to handicap in advance because of the weather conditions. We had no idea if the track was going to be sloppy, muddy or fast until very close to post time. As to my own handicapping, I would never have included Freedom Child except on a sloppy track. He is not bred to get the distance and only wins with an uncontested lead.
I also fell asleep at the wheel because I was going with the horses that were on the pace in the Derby and forgot about Palace Malice in my early handicapping, not to mention that he has a nice pedigree that says distance is no problem for him. Lucky for me I made a last minute move and used him with my top pick Oxbow.
Having 11 straight races without being freshened, combined with all the bad trips he had from bad posts, I think Ox has proved to be the best of this crop. He is one tough dude and is always in the hunt.
We may have a showdown in the Travers later on and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top the rest of the year. My money is on Oxbow.
Backstretch
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