Newsletter # 37 Recap

Newsletter  # 37  Sat. 9/22/12

Pennsylvania Derby

Parx R 11

As you know, the newsletter was meant to keep an eye on this year's 2 yr olds and their trek to the Triple Crown as 3 yr olds. I also planned on keeping to the graded races because it's a huge chore to keep tabs on all the babies that are running. Since there are no graded races for the youngsters this week I thought I would give a look at what's left of this year's 3 yr olds in the PA Derby.

It doesn't look like any of the 3 yr olds will be taking on older horses this year as in years past when they have a chance at a million bucks against their own kind. It looks like the present day champs are going to prove to be a cut below past heros because one of the tests for the champion 3 yr old was to be able to beat older horses, like in the JGC race. With all the horses being hurt or retired in their 3 yr old seasons it doesn't leave all that many really good older horses left to compete against anyway.

It's too bad in my opinion that the ranks of the 3 yr olds are so thinned that the field for this race is such that there are only two in it that have won a grade 1 and one that has won a grade 2. As far as pedigrees, I can't eliminate anyone on their pedigree as they all have nice breeding but most have not lived up to their full potential.

Alpha will be the chalk and his connections have actually done a masterful job of getting him into the softest spots possible. Not that he doesn't always bring his A game to the track but I don't see where he's beaten anything note worthy. I think he stole the Jim Dandy against a nothing field and was all out to deadheat another who hasn't accomplished much. He's a nicely bred horse that I think is still limited to 1 1/8 even though he managed to beat a sup par field in the Travers. This is another race without much quality, if there's any quality left in this crop at all.

Macho Macho has the papers to qualify here. He beat Bourbon Courage, who is a very nice one that came back to win the LA Derby and has not thrown a bad race since Asmussen has had him and I think he can handle these.

I know Golden Ticket ran a dead heat with Alpha last time but I think he got lucky with his trip. Also, in that race I felt that the best horse ran third because of a bad trip. GT has been fairly steady against lesser and ran a liftime best last time but I have doubts that he can repeat that.

Handsome Mike is a horse that I had thought to be better than he looks but never seems to get the right trip. When he has tried the front end there has been somebody running neck and neck with him. He ran into Paynter in the Haskell at MTH and didn't run all that bad. I'm hoping to see him use his speed to track the leaders one time and maybe show more than he has in the past.

Casual Trick is one that I liked way back when but it doesn't seem like Zito has been able to get it together this year. He had Fast Falcon wake up in the Travers so maybe things are starting to come together for him.

1- Macho Macho
2- Alpha
3- Handsome Mike
4- Casual Trick
Long Shot- Stephanoatsee

I don't usually do the filly races but I have an interest in a couple youngsters this year. In a couple of weeks a nice Irish filly named Watsdachances is going in the Miss Grillo stakes at BEL and her next stop, if all goes well, is the Breeders Cup. My interest is that a good friend of mine is one of the owners and I like to feel I had a small part in his investing in her. It will be fun to root for her and it would be swell to see her win the BC. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
                                                                RECAP

Originally I had tossed Alpha because I couldn't think of one really good horse he had beaten, seemed like his spots were well picked and soft. I thought that Macho Macho would be the horse to beat off his last and this race could have been a lot closer if MM hadn't lost so much ground by running extremely wide around the first turn. He also had a see-saw trip but was running strong at the end. I ended up putting him back in the mix because he has been consistent but I guess that was a mistake.

I had liked Handsome Mike in several races this year but he was never able to get clear on the front end and ended up in a speed duel each time. I had keyed him in that El Camino race and thought he ran great although tiring at the end. He has a great pedigree and I felt he would shine sooner or later.

I never liked the pedigree of Alpha because I thought he has distance limitations. He did win at 1 1/4 against a nothing field and he managed to steal the Dandy race against nothing again. He is a much over rated horse beyond 1 1/16.

I would have liked to see Fast Falcon in this race but now I have no idea what's next for him. I think he could be the best left of the 3 yr. olds by years end.

At any rate, it was a profitable race for me and mine and now looking to the Breeders Cup to cap off a nice year of winning bets.

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Newsletter # 35 Recap

Newsletter # 35  Sat. 9/8/12

AP  R7  Arlington-Washington Futurity

This race doesn't have any of the young stars that were running at Sar but one never knows where a future star may pop up. This race was a more important race years ago but now being only a G3 with a relatively small purse it looks like the big timers are skipping it.

There are a few nice horses in this led by Muppet Man. I like his pedigree with all that Bold Ruler in him. He's a speedy type and an old lesson is to never bet against an undefeated horse. He has the rail but I don't think that's an advantage in a one turn race like this. Off his first two starts he looks like the one to beat. A homebred that's done everything right so far.

G. Gomez comes in from CA for this although I don't think he will make much difference. M. Mena won last time with Pataky Kid and he's a very capable jock. Petaky's pedigree is so-so but he's coming up to his third race so should improve some more but he's going to have to get closer to the pace in this one and his very sharp works say he may be sharpened enough to contend a little earlier.

I like the pedigree of Scissortail, another Okla bred like Pataky Kid, and though she's still a maiden I look for some big improvement in this one. She ran into trouble in her last but could be closer to the pace today. Maybe Donnie thinks this is a softer spot than the filly race.

Stormin Monarcho is very nicely bred and seems to give a decent effort each time he runs. Was too far off the pace in last against Muppet and had a rough trip in the race with Mylute. May be better than he looks on paper.

Mylute is one of those with a pedigree that sometimes fools me. He must be a nice looker judging by the price he brought at the sales. His sire Midnight Lute was a good one but a lot of the best sires are horses that match up well with a lot of mares. I don't care for this match but, as I said, I sometimes get fooled by this type so I can't discount him. He's run well in all his starts and the jock is having a good year. I also don't think the post will be a hinderence at this track and distance.

1- Muppet Man
2- Patacky Kid
3- Mylute
4- Stormin Monarcho
Long shot- Scissortail G

LAD  R10  The Super Derby

I'm wondering if this could be a race like the West Virgina Derby where Hansen folded up. In that race Bourbon Courage came from way back and couldn't quite get up. I really like his pedigree and think he likes a distance of ground. He ran into some very fast horses at a shorter distance at CD and BEL and think he might like the pace a tad slower. I know that those that put a lot of stock in dosage numbers and consider the sire the most important horse in the pedigree feel this horse can't get a distance but I always say; "Look at the mares", and the mares in this pedigree have great sire lines.

Fly Lexis Fly has a super nice pedigree and should improve off his first start in the US. Has some sharp works and with blinkers off may rate a little more kindly. I suppose G. Gomez had his choice and took Pataky Kid figuring it was an easier spot but Garcia thought it worthwhile to come in from CA.

Blueskiesandrainbows is a quick one and is coming off a win in the Swaps. However, the two he beat in that race went in the Travers and didn't show much at all, but of course, the Travers was tougher than this one. He got a liftime best Beyers in his last but he may get a lot of pressure in here and I'm not sure he can hold up. I'm not fond of his pedigree either so I'm looking to beat him and get some value.

Rousing Sermon is one of those with a kind of mixed up pedigree and really hasn't won anything noteworthy and was beaten here at this distance by Hero of order who virtually wired the field at 100/1. Having M. Smith on his back can only help because I regard Mike as probably the best closing jock in the country. Should get a minor piece.

Key Donation has a fair pedigree and seems to be on the upswing and has been right there in all his races except his first that was a sprint taken off the weeds. Has a very hot boy up and can't be eliminated.

1- Bourbon Courage
2- Fly Lexis Fly
3- Blueskiesandrainbows
4- Rousing Sermon
Long shot- Key Donation
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RECAP

Patacky Kid did show some sharper speed and laid just off the pace and had a good closing kick to take all the marbles. Muppet man ran another good one but just wasn't good enough.

The Super Derby went as I thought it would with Hero of Order putting pressure on Blueskiesandrainbows who is one that I think needs a clear lead. Many times a speed horse can outrun it's pedigree if allowed to get away on the lead with no pressure and Blueskies is that type.

Bourbon Courage has a really nice pedigree and after this win I expect him to go on to bigger and better things. Despite the dosage I think he could get 1 1/4 with no problem. He has great acceleration on the turns where it really counts.

As I thought he would, Fly Lexis Fly ran a much improved race and with the blinkers off rated better but I feel he was held a little too far off the early pace but wasn't going to catch the winner in any case. He's another with a great pedigree who should move forward off this race.

I have read a lot of negative comments about Mike Smith that I don't feel are deserved. Regardless of what anyone else says, my opinion is that there is no better come from behind jock in the country. Mike gave Rousing Sermon a good ride and got what he could out of it. Rousing Sermon is a plodder type and has never won anything but State Bred races so I didn't expect him to get anything but a minor piece. I guess there are those who think Mike should have gotten off and carried the horse to the finish line.

Backstretch

Newsletter # 34 Recap

Newsletter # 34  Sun. 9/2/12

The Sapling

MTH  R9  9/2/12:
Pletcher is making things a little difficult because he has two horses cross entered and we won't know which is running where until post time. The only thing I can do is include both in the Sapling and the Hopeful so I hope we don't have some confusion.

As you know I am going to pick them by pedigree rather than performance so I may have something on top that doesn't figure as well as some of the others.

Pletcher has Overanalyze and Lawn Man cross entered in addition to having Drum Roll in this race and Shanghai Bobby in the Hopeful. I understand he has about 120 2 yr. olds so he's loaded for bear. It seems that most of his youngsters score in their first start so he sure has them fired up.

He may be longer odds than his stable mate but I like the pedigree of Drum Roll over the others.
Lawn Man is well bred but he's one that I think will not get the Derby distance but will do well till that point.
Lucci the Lion, although a NY bred, has a really nice pedigree and may make an impression despite his low speed number.
Tap and Trade is a KY invader who is nicely bred and looks to be coming up to a big race. He showed a lot of improvement in his last and I think he will move forward off that one.
1- Drum Roll
2- Lawn Man
3- Overanalyze
4- Lucci the Lion
5- Tap and Trade

The Hopeful
SAR  R9  9/3/12:
This looks to be a better field than the Sapling and has more possiblities because there are some really well bred youngsters in here.

Bern Identity is probably going to be the favorite off his win in the Sanford plus having Ramon on his back. He's nicely bred even though I'm not in love with his type pedigree  he could be a good one.
Breen has another nice one in Vegas No Show who is cutting back in distance and may be coming at the end.

Shanghai Bobby looks to be the best of Pletcher's entries and I suppose Rosie is sticking with this one more out of keeping her connections than preferring the horse.
As far as Pletcher's other two, Overanalyze and Lawn Man I think either would have a better shot in the Sapling.

Asmussen usually has a few nice ones and Show Some Magic took a few starts to get his maiden win but could be a contender.

Lukas likes to throw maidens against winners for some reason or other and even though Royal Art has a nice pedigree I don't think he's ready for these yet.

Majestic Hussar blew them away in his only start in the slop and could win some more in sprints but I'm not too keen on him down the line when they start stretching out.

Fortify has a pedigree that I just love. I think he's bred to run all day in addition to having speed. He's one of a few that is running without lasix and I'm hoping he can prove that good ones don't need it. Bravo doesn't ride a lot of Mc Laughlin's horses but does well when he does get the mount. I know Jersey Joe isn't ranked up there with the top NY jocks but when he has a good horse he pulls off a lot of upsets. I think he is very under rated and doesn't get bet the way he should when in NY.

1- Fortify
2- Shanghai Bobby
3- Bern Identity
4- Show Some Magic
5- Lawn Man

Good Luck,
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RECAP
A few scratches in the Sapling left nothing much in there. Brave Dave shot out to the lead and set some fast fractions but nobody could close on him in spite of the last 1/4 being relatively slow. I wasn't impressed by this race.

It was a nice field in the Hopeful and Bobby proved to be much the best making him 3 for 3. Looks like he may be a real good one but I think he will have distance limitations come derby time. Even though Fortify couldn't catch the winner I wonder what will happen when the others run without lasix as he does. I think we will hear more from Fortify in the future.
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