Newsletter # 33 Recap

Newsletter # 33  Sat.  8/25/12

The Travers  Sar R12

With all the leading 3 yr old contenders having been injured, sick or retired, this years race looks to be a battle of the survivors, none of which has been really impressive. Seems unlikely that the Travers would only have one G1 winner,Liaison, in it but it is what it is.

Alpha, the favorite, has been handled nicely by always picking his spots and it still seems to be working well because, as I said, there's nothing in here that's been impressive. He may win this race on form alone but I am still waiting to see one with his type of pedigree get the 1 1/4 distance on top so I will go against him here. If he wins, he wins, but until he does I will still buck those type pedigrees.

There are 5 in here that have pedigrees I like but none has yet to race to their potential.
Speightscity has a very nice pedigree, although I just read that there's no way he can get the distance because of his sire. I just don't understand these experts that base their opinion of a horse's distance ability solely on the sire. This same "Expert" also said Alpha can get any distance based on his sire.
Speightscity has been badly mishandled all year and jumping into this race off a 6 mo. layoff because of an injury seems to be an indication of more crazy training. They intend to send him to the front and see how far he will go which may put some pace in the race if nothing else.

Street Life has a decent pedigree and is in the hands of a very good trainer. He looks to want a distance but is going to have to be more involved early to be effective and I don't know if he's up to it.

Atigun is well bred but the only race he showed something was the Belmont and that race usually produces some flukey results. I am however discounting the Jim Dandy race because I feel that race was stolen by Alpha by being allowed to set a snail's pace on a sloppy track. In that race Atigun was held way off that slow pace and had no chance to gain.

Liaison has a nice pedigree and is the only G1 winner in the race which he won as a 2yr old. They were always high on him but he just couldn't put it all together for some reason even though trained by Baffert. He gained ground and finished strong in the J. Dandy slow walk in his first over the track. They didn't ship him back to CA so he has had a couple works here and Bejarano flies in for this. I think he will get a piece and could actually win it all.

Nonios doesn't have my kind of pedigree but off performance I think he's the one that should be the chalk. None of these has run as well as he did chasing Paynter in the Haskell. I think Paynter is the best 3 yr old out there and would be 2/5 in this race. Nonios chased him and hung in very well. Another plus is that he gets JR in the saddle. He showed he can run close up and stay so I don't think he will let anyone steal this.

I really love the pedigree of Fast Falcon. This is a lightly raced colt and he hasn't shown any big numbers yet but I feel the potential is there. In the Jim Dandy he made a nice move turning for home and got within striking distance of the leaders but then backed down. I kind of think this was a combination of being a little short on condition and with the slow pace nobody was going to catch the two leaders anyway. I can't discount him because of one oddball race and I have seen Zito score with many a bomb over the years. Also, not that Rosie isn't a good jock, I think that Junior is a little better and may improve his chances. I'm going to take a big chance with this one and shoot for the moon.

I don't think much of the rest even though this is a wide open race.

1- Fast Falcon
2- Nonios
3- Liaison
4- Atigun
Longshots- Street Life, Speightscity


RECAP

I think this race actually had a pretty soft pace and everyone knew that the two leaders wouldn't stay no matter how slow they went. Alpha and Golden Ticket were sitting 3rd and 4th in perfect stalking positions where they wern't being used at all. When the two up front quit they were in perfect position to take over. Being that they had an easy time of it they had plenty left for the drive.

The most impressive horse was Fast Falcon. The far outside post really hurt him because he had to drop back to last to get over or be hung out to dry around the turn.

In addition to having to drop back to dead last because of the bad post, this is what junior had to say after the race;

"All of a sudden by the three-eighths pole (Street Life) just stopped in front of me when I thought he was going to start to kick up," said Junior Alvarado, rider of Fast Falcon. "So, I had to move up, check a little bit and move outside. He started to pick it up again, but I'm sure that's what cost me the race."

I really didn't think Alpha could get the distance but being that the race was so ordinary I'm really not that surprised. Looking into the future, I feel that Fast Falcon is a horse to be reckoned with before the year is out. He has one of the very best pedigrees I've seen all year and, not having raced as a 2yr old, I think he is a late bloomer who is just coming into his own. I'm hoping to see him in the JGC next.
Backstretch

Newsletter # 30 8/4/12 Recap

Newsletter # 30 Sat. 8/4/12

MNR R1  MNR Juvenile
The reason I'm looking at this race is that I'm interested to see what Circle Unbroken does. I won't be betting because he will be very short odds but I want to see how much potential he has. I like his breeding and think he will handle more distance later on in the 2 yr old stakes. It's possible he could be a factor when the breeders Cup rolls around. He beat Positively last time, although that one exited the race with an injury, and I really like Postively's pedigree. We will just have to wait and see if Circle can handle the likes of the colts that will be contesting the stakes at the spa.

This race is a little unusual in that there are 3 geldings in here. We normally don't see 2 yr old geldings in thse type races and if any turn out to be good it means they will keep racing rather than be retired at an early age.
Several in here have nice pedigrees but only a couple have shown ability at this point but one never knows with these babies because they may show sudden improvement at any time.

1- Circle Unbroken
2- Maybe So
3- Triple Cross
4- Pitch N Roll
Long shot- No Way R J

DMR R8 The Best Pal G2

Before I get into this race I want to repeat something I've said many times over the years; I don't care what the numbers say, "Only the horses know if they are going fast or slow". After every major race the pundits are always commenting about how fast or slow the pace was according to the fractions. What is considered a slow pace may actually be a fast pace and the reverse is also true. I don't care what the numbers say, I consider how the pace is contested. For instance, in the recent Haskell, everyone is saying that Gemologist was terrible and that he is finished. This is being said because he tired badly and finished up the track. I happen to think he tired because he set a very fast pace regardless of what the fractions were. Why do I say this? I heard, from one that examined the track, that, although listed as fast, the track was actually very sticky.

 Another thing I noticed was that Nakatani, who is an excellent judge of pace, (see Nehro in the KY Derby) started to move on the leaders with Nonios on the backstretch in the Haskell but quickly changed his mind. I believe he thought they were going too fast and he backed off. Although no match for Paynter, he finished second. I wouldn't dismiss Gem off that race just yet.

I mention all this because in the race at hand we have a couple who were in the HOl Juv. last time and that was a race where I thought the 2 leaders were on a suicide mission. Amarish and the other horse ridden by Krigger were both determined to get the lead and neither would give an inch and they cooked one another.

In this race there are some nice pedigrees, starting with Heir Of Storm who is nicely bred but has the Mr Prospector line in the wrong positions to qualify for the classics by my standards. May be a good one up to a little more than a mile but won't get longer. Breeding says he may be a precocious one and be a contender early on. Gets lasix for this one.

Moreno has what I call a Heinz "57" pedigree which is not to my liking. May be kind of quick in sprints but I'm not looking past that. Is still a maiden.

Miss Empire is a filly taking a shot at the boys. I'm not crazy about her pedigree although it's loaded with stamina. I would think her best chances will come in much longer races.

Scherer Magic is one that I liked last time. Has a really nice pedigree and I love all that Tom Fool blood in it. He could turn out to be the best that Iowa has ever produced. I'm hoping he goes on to bigger and better things because he's also a gelding and would keep on racing if all went well.

Heir Kitty has a lovely pedigree and the only knock I have against it is that it's another with those Mr Prospector mares in the wrong slots. I like the damsire line and that could make a difference with this one.

Amarish is a well bred colt with an outcross in his pedigree. I would think that he would relish a distance but not the way he ran his last. As I said, he really got cooked last time and the best can get burned out in that manner so I think he deserves another chance, especially if he gets an uncontested lead if that's the way they want to run.

K Court, not a bad pedigree but not exactly the kind I like. He may get better with more distance.

1- Scherer Magic...hoping he's for real
2- Amarish...seems to be the speed...can bounce back but may be faint hearted.
3- Heir Of Storm...Should like this distance..1st lasix may help
4- Miss Empire..giving her a shot because she should be coming on late...stablemate may prefer turf.

Backstretch

Recap:

The Mountaineer race was a good battle between the top two with Maybe So just edging Circle Unbroken. Both may turn out to be nice colts down the road. Triple Cross was scratched so our top 3 were all in the money.

The Best Pal was a bummer for me because I was using the DRF PPs and never looked at entries which caused me to not see Know More who was on another page in the DRF.

This is not saying I would have picked him to win but he had the best pedigree by far of all that were in the race. If you recall, I'll Have Another ran second in this race last year getting beat by Creative Cause and we know the rest of the story. The kicker is that Know More has the same connections as IHA. They said they had a plan for I'll Have Another last year and followed it and probably will get the 3yr old of the year award.
I also read that they think Know More is the best one they have this year so they may have a plan for him also. There have been some really good horses that have won this race in the past so I'm forced to think that Know More will be one of the leading contenders heading to the Triple Crown next year.

Miller had 2 fillies in here and they ran 2nd and 3rd with Miss Empire stumbling at the start forcing her to come a long way to get up for the show. She should relish a longer distance and I think she should be a major factor with the girls later on.

As a side note, Strong Wind, who dueled with Amarish in their previous race came back to win a minor stake wire to wire while Amarish folded again in this race. Amarish is nicely bred but seems to be really faint hearted. Of course, the pace in this race may have been a tad fast but the runnerup filly stayed on well so I don't think the top two choices in this race, Scherer Magic and Amarish, can handle a quick pace.

Lookin At Lucky and Dixie Union were also winners of this race so perhaps history will be repeated.

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