Newsletter # 29 Sat. 7/28/12 Recap

Newsletter # 29  Sat. 7/28/12

Jim Dandy Stakes
Saratoga R 10 7/28/12

I had several of these on my early KY Derby list but they just couldn't run to their potential. It looks like, although some are nice horses, they are not on a par with some who have run much better to date. I feel that by the time they have run 10 races they have given a pretty good indication of what they can do. There are some that keep maturing and don't come into their own until their 4 yr old season but as of now we can only go by what we have seen of them.

This looks to be a much better betting race than the Haskell because there looks to be more contenders. In fact, this race could be up for grabs so I would be looking for some real value in my bets.
Every horse in here has a nice pedigree and it's difficult to seperate them by breeding except for one that I think has an outstanding pedigree, especially for the classic distances of 1 1/4 and more.

Taken in order;
Alpha is a nice horse but, for the same reasons as Hansen, I always had big doubts about him getting a classic distance. And, like Hansen, I think 1 1/8 is stretching it a little unless he gets a perfect trip. In this race he has a chance because there are only a few who have had any success at all at this distance. He gets Ramon which is a big plus and he draws the rail. Should be the chalk but I think he can be beat.

Fast Falcon has one of the very best pedigrees I've seen all year. Looks like he's bred to run all the way to Hosh Kosh and back. He has improved with every race and I don't think he has come close to his best yet. He's only had 5 races and if he improves again in conjunction with the added distance he can take this race. I like his running style and it looks like he can stay within striking distance of a fast pace. I know I'm going out on a limb here and may get egg on my face but one doesn't make money in this game by betting what is obvious and everyone else sees. I'm really excited about this one and if he should run big I look forward to a showdown in the Travers between him and Paynter.

Atigun is a nice horse and I picked him in the money in the Belmont. My problem with him is I just don't think he's quite fast enough. I know he looked good in the Belmont but in my opinion that race was an aberration in that Paynter slowed the pace down way too much. That race could have gone at least a second or two faster.

Neck 'n Neck's last two seem to be a huge improvement speed wise over his previous races. I don't know what he faced but am thinking it wasn't much. He's not been too far behind a couple good ones but he could be around at the finish if his last two were for real. Never been too keen on his pedigree.

My Adonis is nicely bred and I took a long look at him in several races but he hasn't shown any ability to close and seems too weak on the front end. He should be up on the pace here and might at least make for an honest pace.

Teeth Of The Dog has a decent pedigree and has some speed but I don't think he wants more than 1 1/16. He did run third against Gem but the ones he beat in that race weren't much.

Liaison has a very nice pedigree and was highly regarded last year but went bad for some reason. Of course he was meeting the best and couldn't handle them but Baffert looks to have him back on track and I think he will be a factor in here.

Prospective is a nicely bred inbred horse who has been very consistent. He was very game in theTampa Derby but he really hasn't shown he can compete against the top of the line horses. Has handled this distance but only beat a few much lesser horses.

!- Fast Falcon
2- Liaison
3- Alpha
4- Teeth Of The Dog

The Haskell

MTH R 13 SUN. 7/29/12

Even though this is an important race I'm not going to dwell on it much because I see no value. It will be an interesting race to watch but not one to bet on unless you happen to be a chalk eater.

They all have nice pedigrees but as far as that goes I think Paynter has the best breeding. I had said in an earlier blog that I thought he was better than Bodemeister but I think Bode will be better at stud.
The only question I have is if anyone will be able to run down Paynter. I think he should have won the Belmont with ease but Smith failed, in addition to leaving a hole for Rags, to take advantage of the superior pace ability of Paynter. Speed is useless unless one uses it and he slowed the pace way too much and failed to make the others work to keep up. JMO of course.

I was very high on Gemologist and Dullahan early in the year and still think they are really good horses. I thought one of the best runs I saw all year was Dullahan running down Hansen in the Bluegrass. In the Belmont he was sitting alongside Rags on the backstretch and it looked to me that JJ wanted to be off the pace more and took him back. Big mistake with the pace being as slow as it was.

I liked Gem in the derby and don't know what happened to him. They say he suffered an injury and that could very well be. If he's in top shape he will be tough.

1- Paynter
2- Gemologist
3- Dullahan
4- Nonios
Recap

Well. I'm still wiping egg off my face. I guess I was wrong about Fast Falcon in the Jim Dandy, but having said that, I really don't think this race proved anything.
Alpha got an easy lead on a sloppy track and the race was over as soon as it started. I expected My Adonis to show some early run as he usually does but that was not to be. There have been so many races where there is no more than one horse with quality speed and that horse is able to steal away to an easy uncontested lead. At least in the Haskell we had a real horse race and Paynter showed he's in a league of his own. If he goes in the Travers I think it would be his race to lose as I don't feel that Alpha will get close to him.

I am willing to throw out races in the slop, especially if a speed horse gets an uncontested lead. Saw way too many of those type races in the last 60 yrs. to be taken in by the winners of those. I still think Fast Falcon is a good one but may need a little more seasoning.

I'll probably be doing the Best Pal at DMR next week as that's a graded race for 2 yr olds. See you then.
Backstretch

Newsletter # 28 Sat. 7/22/12 Recap

Newsletter # 28  Sat. 7/21/12

The Sanford

SAR  R9  Sun.  7/22/12

Before getting to the race I wanted to mention a report I read. According to the item, a bunch of prominent horses owners say they plan to race their 2 yr olds without lasix this year. I don't know what the final ruling was from the Breeders Cup but they were supposed to have a rule in place regarding 2 yr olds racing without lasix this year.

There are a lot of pros and cons on this issue with some good arguments on both sides but personally I would like to see lasix phased out. Maybe it's because I've been around so long and played the races long before lasix was used but I just don't seem to remember that many bleeders.

I happen to think that using lasix, which is a diuretic, has some bad effects over the long haul by leeching out calcium and other minerals from the body which can weaken the bones. I suppose it is a good thing that it prevents bleeding from the lungs but my question is, why is it given to 95% of all horses before they have even had a race? Is every horse a bleeder to the extent that it affects their racing ability?

Now to the race at hand; It seems like every year there are a lot of pedigrees with different approaches. By that, I mean that the mares are being sent to a different type stallion than has been the practise in the past. Some of these may turn out good but there aren't too many of them that fit my patterns of classic runners.
I only find a few in this race that meet my standards and they are not of my preferred type. Some of them have some excellent lines but the mares are not where I'd like to see them.

I like 4 in here and they are Hightail, John Gordon, Onetwentyeight and Rose Junction. Of these the one I like least is Hightail although they paid a small fortune for him. Maybe he hasn't done so well so far because of the trainer. Could be that Lukas hasn't kept up with the times and the question arises as to why he keeps racing a maiden against winners.

It's really hard to decide between the other three, two of which are Pletcher's horses. They both broke their maiden in handy fashion at Belmont, both were in a field of six, both were the chalk and both wired the field. Rose Junction got a higher Beyer but it was also a shorter race than Onetwentyeight. I am giving the edge to Rose Junction because, although 128 has an out cross, I like the line that Rose is crossed with and I like the position in the pedigree which I can't say for 128.

The pedigree of John Gordon is the type that has been a classic standard for quite a few years as far as the horses that influence the pedigree most. I know he was beaten by Good Tickled but I don't favor Good Tickled's pedigree nor his form cycle. JG ran a very nice race against Positively who almost won the Bashford despite trouble in the race and coming out with a shin problem. Both Positively and Circle Unbroken, the first two in the Bashford have really nice breeding and could be a cut above these. Being that JG has an equal pedigree and has ran well in all of his races he could have a little edge in experience.
1- Rose Junction....only because Pletcher usually has them all cranked up early.
2- John Gordon...getting his 4th different jockey but I'll leave that up to Dale.
3- Onetwentyeight...wouldn't be a big surprise to see Pletch run 1-2
4- Bern Identity...has some real stamina horses in his pedigree but a little mixed up for my taste but if it clicks he could be a real good one.
Long Shot- Hightail
Good Luck,
Backstretch

Recap

This race was a lot like the Hollywood Juvenile last week when the leaders ran each other into the ground.
Bern Identity got a lot of action and went off as the favorite. He got a perfect trip sitting just off the speed and Caught Handsome Jack near the wire but I thought Handsome Jack showed a lot of guts by dueling all the way with 2 others and putting them away. Looking at the pace in the race and the way Jack hung in I think he was probably best in this race.
The closers kind of had it set up for them with the torrid pace but the only one close enough to be able to catch the leader was the winner.
Onetwentyeight showed good energy at the end and was closing fast. I didn't like the ride on John Gordon at all. He actually broke on top but Garcia immediately grabbed hold of him and took him way back to the rear where he had no chance to get into the race. Maybe he just wasn't fast enough to keep up but I'll be watching to see what he does in his next race.
We've had 2 graded races for 2 yr olds and in both races the pace was fast and the leaders buried themselves. Both races were sprints and with the leaders killing each other I don't think we can make a case for any of them yet. I think we will just have to wait for some longer distance races to sort them out a little. Handsome Jack did impress me a little, but as far as going to the classics, I don't think he's bred to handle the longer distances. We do have the BC Sprint that may showcase a few of these but I'm looking for those derby type horses and will know a lot more by the time the BC rolls around.
Backstretch

Newsletter # 27 Sat. 7/14/12 Recap

Newsletter # 27  Sat. 7/14/12

Before getting to this week's race, a word about the young horses. We tend to have a few different groups of 2 yr olds each year. They are different because of their age and degree of maturity. There are the foals that are dropped early in the year and the later ones in April or later. In addition to the early foals some are more precocious than others and these early ones tend to dominate the early races.

There are those that get a later start and don't get rolling until early in the next year or some have a start or two and are injured and given time off. We also have some that are really late getting started and don't have a chance to run until they are 3 yr olds.

What this means is that the horses that look really good early on and even in the BC may not be so good when the others have a chance to catch up. This situation suggests that one shouldn't get overly enthused about the early winners. It's a long way to the Triple Crown preps and the big races themselves.

Another thing I want to mention is that I will only be writing about 2 and 3 yr old stakes races. By the time horses are 4 yrs old their ability has pretty well been established and the races for older horses may just as well be tackled by other handicapping methods. I will be covering the 2 and 3 yr old stakes only, which means there may be a week here and there that there will be no race to cover and in that case I will just write about some of my thoughts on handicapping or pedigrees.

Hollywood Juvenile Championship G3  Race 2  Sat. 7/14/12

This is only a sprint but there have been a few very good horses such as Dixie Union that have won this one. There are a few nice pedigrees in here and a couple that are a little unusual because they have several out-crosses in them, not the run of the mill types.

The first one I like is the favorite, Amarish. A really nice bred colt with an out-cross top and bottom. Has had 2 races and won them both in nice fashion. Hard to buck this one.

Scherer Magic is another with a double dose of out-cross and an inbred family. He was entered in a claiming race in his only start and was claimed. Would seem to be making a big jump here from claiming to graded stakes but it's not like this hasn't been done before. Blew them away under a hand ride and could be a good one. The only knock I have against him is he's only had one race and these sometimes bounce in their next
.
Strong Wind is a state bred but his pedigree suggests that he can run all day and then some. State bred to graded stake is quite a jump but these are 2 yr olds and it will take some time to find out how good or bad they are. I'll give this guy a shot down the road.

Just Call Me Al has a pedigree of a type that is quite common to some very good runners. He may be a tad below these at this point but could be heard from later.

Confederate Recon has classic type breeding that I really like. He was beaten by Carson's Crown in his last but got off to a bad start which usually spells curtains in a 5f sprint. I think he will appreciate the extra furlong.
Carson's Crown has some champions in his pedigree but I just don't care for the alignment of the females. May be a good one but one that eludes me.

Dirty Swagg is one that I can't quite get a handle on his pedigree. He might be a good one but since it's not clear cut to me I'll pass on him for now.

1- Amarish
2- Scherer Magic
3- Confederate Recon
4- Just Call Me Al
Longshot- Strong Wind

Recap
I don't know what those jocks were thinking but Maldonado on Amarish and Krigger on Strong Wind were both determined to get the lead and ran each other into the ground. Actually, after a 1/4 Krigger was sitting nicely on Amarish's flank in a good stalking position but for some reason decided to go for the lead with about a 1/2 left to run. They hit the stretch head and head and Amirish quit but Strong Wind kept on and managed to hold on for 4th. Confederate Recon chased the leaders for a 1/2 but couldn't stay with them.

Result-
1- Scherer Magic
2- Carson's Crown
3- Just Call Me Al
4- Strong Wind

I wouldn't discount Amarish and Strong Wind off this race because, even though the fractions didn't look all that fast, I think it was a suicidal pace and they could both bounce right back.
It could be that the fast pace set it up for the top two;

Scherer Magic, the winner, was claimed out of his debut for 50 Gs and Gary Barber, the owner, picked him out. Pretty ballsy claim being that he's an Iowa bred and a gelding at that. I don't know if he had seen the horse working or if, like me, he just loved his pedigree. Sadler said Gary is a riverboat gambler and not afraid to go with his gut. He's supposed to have been nominated on Sun. to the BC so hopefully we'll see a lot more of him in the future.

Sadler's other entry, Carson's Crown ran a nice race to get second but I still have doubts about his long distance ability but he may very well prove me wrong. Sometimes I just can't get a good read on a pedigree and they really fool me.

No 2 yr old stakes coming up for a time but I will still be looking at the 3 yr olds. The Haskell is looking to be a contentious race, especially with Bodemeister out. We might see a latecomer step up to the plate and they may also enter Hansen.
Till next time,
Backstretch

Newsletter # 25 Recap

　

Newsletter # 25 Sat. 6/30/12

　

Bashford Manor Gr. 3 CD R6

This is the first graded stakes for 2 yr olds this year but will have no bearing on the KY Derby because they are not counting earnings this year, nor are they counting sprint races.

What we can look forward to is the Breeders Cup and how things develop in the early races. Even at this early stage I am looking at pedigrees to determine which ones have the potential to get the classic distances. There will be some horses that will look quite brilliant early on but will have trouble getting the longer distances. Many of these early stars will be the precocious type but will run into trouble later in the year and into next year when the slower maturing ones catch up.

This is only a grade 3 sprint but there are several in here with very nice pedigrees that could carry them a long way. Some may not be around by Breeders Cup time but on the other hand, we never know when a star will appear.

There are four in this race with fairly nice classic breeding but I'm leaning towards Positively and Roman's Avenue. The other two are Circle Unbroken and Go Jack Go. Special Jo was kind of expensive and blew them away in his first start but I'm looking at him as a sprinter. He may be good at a mile or so but I can't see him getting the longer distances.

I didn't think Hansen could get the longer distances last year but he did manage to win the BC. A lot of them look like stars until they have to get the derby distance but I will only be concentrating on those with distance potential.

All but one of these has won their last race so it looks to be a very contentious race and since it's only a sprint there's nothing to separate the men from the boys except speed. Special Jo will probably be the chalk considering the way he buried them in his first try. These babies can show some huge improvement race to race so I like to buck the odds and hope for a big upset of sorts.

1- Positively....has a super nice pedigree and looks to be bred to run all day...showed big improvement in second start and I expect to see him move forward off that one.

2- Roman's Avenue...another classic pedigree and looks to be speedy...Romans is high on this one and should make his presence felt.

3- Circle Unbroken...another with good distance potential in his pedigree...should like the extra little bit of distance.

4- Special Jo...his breeding doesn't tell me he will handle the classic distances but this is only a 6f sprint so he could very well win on speed alone.

Long Shot- Go Jack Go...has a lot of stamina on the dam side and should be good over a distance of ground...may be a little slow for these right now but I'm keeping my eye on him

Recap

Result;

1st.....Circle Unbroken

2nd....Positively

3rd.....Special Jo

Circle Unbroken sat just off the pace and had a nice trip splitting horses in the stretch. Positively was squeezed at the start and dropped back to last, started a long run after a quarter, reached contention in the stretch but couldn't get to the winner. He was running sort of erratically in the stretch and was bearing in and I thought he was having a problem. I later read a Twitter that said Positively had shin problems and would be out of action until the fall.

Both horses have really nice pedigrees and I expect to hear from them down the road in the longer distance races.

Backstretch