I had hoped to get my pedigrees done before now but due to my handicapping work for my clients I'm running behind schedule.
I should have my pedigree contenders posted here by Thurs. 11/3/11. Thanks for your patience.
Backstretch
Friday, October 28, 2011
Friday, October 21, 2011
Breeders Cup 2 yr old Pedigrees
This is the time of year I like to study pedigrees. I'm only interested in the 2 yr olds because the older horses were looked at in previous years and what they can do has been pretty well established by now. I do take pedigree into consideration with the older horses when I find them to be closely matched, especially the 3 yr olds.
There seems to be a lot more nicely bred babies this year than last and more importantly, some with excellent pedigrees that have a lot of speed. I think that one of the principal reasons for all the different winners on the TC trail was the lack of any quality horses with high speed. Shack was the only one that could carry his speed a distance but he ran out of pedigree at the longer distance despite the fact he had no competition early. I think we will see a different story this year.
When I handicap pedigrees I am looking for the horses I think will be able to handle the classic distances so what they do now and leading up to the classics will be determined by how fast they mature. The precocious ones usually do the early winning but, if lacking the right pedigree for the longer distances, will soon be overcome by the well bred late bloomers.
The reason I do pedigree handicapping is that many time horses with great potential are overlooked in the betting and some great prices can be had. In a previous post I had noted, and was confirmed by a reader, that most of the stakes on the TC trail were won by one of my pedigree horses. Some of these were at big odds like Watch Me Go @40/1, Archarcharch @ 15/1 twice, Animal Kingdom @ 20/1, etc.
I may list 4-5 horses for a race and if any go off real long I will usually go with the long ones in addition to the more formful ones. For some reason there seems to be a lot more bred for the classics this year than last, especially in the turf races.
I'm not looking at the sprint races because it doesn't take classic breeding to win those races. Sprints are usually won by horses who are athletes with a high turn of speed.
As of the moment I don't know who is going to run where as there are quite a few cross entered. It may be that the connections haven't yet decided what distance or surface their horse fits best or it may be that some horses are dodging others. I have a feeling that there are a few that prefer not to go up against Union Rags right now. Last year it seemed that all year long everyone was playing "Dodge The Bullet", especially Pletcher. Right now I will just have to go with the probable starters but I may add or delete some by race day.
Starting with the JUV. Fillies Turf, here are my early pedigree picks in alphabetic order; This is not taking their current form into consideration, only their breeding.
Bourbonstreetgirl.......
Elusive Kate..............
My Gi Gi...................
Northern Passion.......
Pure Gossip...............
Somali Lemonade......
Stephanie's Kitten......
Sweet Cat.................
Some of these have not shown their best yet and may not until later in the year. The really cool thing is to anticipate when a big race is about to pop and get on board at big odds.
There is a small percentage of horses that have what I call a Heinz "57" pedigree. These are pedigrees that have so many different horses in them that it's extremely difficult to decide which are going to dominate. As I said, this is not an exact science.
My next post will take up another BC baby race.
Backstretch
There seems to be a lot more nicely bred babies this year than last and more importantly, some with excellent pedigrees that have a lot of speed. I think that one of the principal reasons for all the different winners on the TC trail was the lack of any quality horses with high speed. Shack was the only one that could carry his speed a distance but he ran out of pedigree at the longer distance despite the fact he had no competition early. I think we will see a different story this year.
When I handicap pedigrees I am looking for the horses I think will be able to handle the classic distances so what they do now and leading up to the classics will be determined by how fast they mature. The precocious ones usually do the early winning but, if lacking the right pedigree for the longer distances, will soon be overcome by the well bred late bloomers.
The reason I do pedigree handicapping is that many time horses with great potential are overlooked in the betting and some great prices can be had. In a previous post I had noted, and was confirmed by a reader, that most of the stakes on the TC trail were won by one of my pedigree horses. Some of these were at big odds like Watch Me Go @40/1, Archarcharch @ 15/1 twice, Animal Kingdom @ 20/1, etc.
I may list 4-5 horses for a race and if any go off real long I will usually go with the long ones in addition to the more formful ones. For some reason there seems to be a lot more bred for the classics this year than last, especially in the turf races.
I'm not looking at the sprint races because it doesn't take classic breeding to win those races. Sprints are usually won by horses who are athletes with a high turn of speed.
As of the moment I don't know who is going to run where as there are quite a few cross entered. It may be that the connections haven't yet decided what distance or surface their horse fits best or it may be that some horses are dodging others. I have a feeling that there are a few that prefer not to go up against Union Rags right now. Last year it seemed that all year long everyone was playing "Dodge The Bullet", especially Pletcher. Right now I will just have to go with the probable starters but I may add or delete some by race day.
Starting with the JUV. Fillies Turf, here are my early pedigree picks in alphabetic order; This is not taking their current form into consideration, only their breeding.
Bourbonstreetgirl.......
Elusive Kate..............
My Gi Gi...................
Northern Passion.......
Pure Gossip...............
Somali Lemonade......
Stephanie's Kitten......
Sweet Cat.................
Some of these have not shown their best yet and may not until later in the year. The really cool thing is to anticipate when a big race is about to pop and get on board at big odds.
There is a small percentage of horses that have what I call a Heinz "57" pedigree. These are pedigrees that have so many different horses in them that it's extremely difficult to decide which are going to dominate. As I said, this is not an exact science.
My next post will take up another BC baby race.
Backstretch
Friday, October 14, 2011
Mine That Bird, a Fluke?
When Mine That Bird won the KY Derby almost everyone thought it was some kind of fluke. I however, didn't really think so. There were 6 horses in that derby that I had on my pedigree list and of the first 6 to cross the finish line, 5 were my pedigree horses, including MTB.
You may be wondering why I mention this at this time but I just want to point out how it's relevant now. In my previous post I had listed 5 horses that I liked their pedigree for the BC Fut. at KEE. One of these was a maiden named Dullahan who is a 1/2 brother to MTB. Actually, the way I look at pedigrees makes him closer to being a full brother. I guess you know that Dullahan won @17/1 and beat a pretty deep field. He caught the chalk who is a horse that I feel certainly has distance limitations.
Judging from his breeding I think Dullahan will again be heard from, especially as the distances get longer on the Triple Crown Trail. I'm not stating that he's about to win the derby but I think he may be a contender along the way.
His performance, IMO, validates just how good MTB was. Don't forget, he was the 2 yr old champ of Canada before he won the Derby and was 2nd and 3rd in the Preakness and Belmont. Doesn't sound like a fluke to me.
This is the beauty of knowing how to judge the classical qualities of young horses by their pedigree. You never know what kind of odds you might get with horses that are really bred to go the distance of the classic races and have been getting beat in the shorter races where all it takes is sharp form to win.
I'm looking forward to the TC races this winter and spring because it's a lot of fun to follow and also might be very profitable.
Next up, the Breeders Cup.
Backstretch
You may be wondering why I mention this at this time but I just want to point out how it's relevant now. In my previous post I had listed 5 horses that I liked their pedigree for the BC Fut. at KEE. One of these was a maiden named Dullahan who is a 1/2 brother to MTB. Actually, the way I look at pedigrees makes him closer to being a full brother. I guess you know that Dullahan won @17/1 and beat a pretty deep field. He caught the chalk who is a horse that I feel certainly has distance limitations.
Judging from his breeding I think Dullahan will again be heard from, especially as the distances get longer on the Triple Crown Trail. I'm not stating that he's about to win the derby but I think he may be a contender along the way.
His performance, IMO, validates just how good MTB was. Don't forget, he was the 2 yr old champ of Canada before he won the Derby and was 2nd and 3rd in the Preakness and Belmont. Doesn't sound like a fluke to me.
This is the beauty of knowing how to judge the classical qualities of young horses by their pedigree. You never know what kind of odds you might get with horses that are really bred to go the distance of the classic races and have been getting beat in the shorter races where all it takes is sharp form to win.
I'm looking forward to the TC races this winter and spring because it's a lot of fun to follow and also might be very profitable.
Next up, the Breeders Cup.
Backstretch
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Breeders Cup Prep Races ...Sat. 10/8/11
First, a few words about 2 year old horses. One must acknowledge that some horses are much more precocious than others, that is, they mature much faster. In addition, many are earlier foals than others, sometimes as much as 5-6 months. This means that a lot of them have a head start and will do most of the winning of the early races. Many will only have a start or two before their 3 yr old season and have to catch up but they usually make their presence felt in the spring. This is the most likely reason there has been only one BC Juvy winner that has won the KY Derby.
My aim is to try to pick the pedigrees that will be able to handle the classic distances of the Triple Crown races. Since these early races are just over a mile it doesn't take classic breeding to win these races but the better bred horses usually win more than their fair share of the early ones.
I don't know if this is an exceptional year for well bred horses or last year was a bad crop but already, and I've just begun, I have found an abundance of nicely bred colts and fillies. Last year in the BC there were only a few that were really nice. Also, it seems like every year there are some classical bred horses from overseas but they don't have much luck here on the dirt. I attribute it to the different training methods over there. They run on the grass and are trained to go slow early and finish fast and that doesn't work in our dirt races where the pace is usually much faster. I don't hesitate to bet foreign horses on the grass but am very leery on dirt.
Now, on to the races and I'll start with the Champagn at BEL:
There are 4 in here that I really like their pedigrees but this is not to say the others are not nicely bred. I have to draw the line somewhere so, even though none can be eliminated completely according to breeding, I have come down to 4 in this race. Keep in mind that most are stretching out to a mile for the first time and a few of the early stakes were run on sloppy tracks. Slop usually favors speed and some horses really hate slop so there could be some surprises.
These are my top 4 in no particular order and I will try for an upset and will probably make some exotic boxes.
Power World.......really like this pedigree...hope he can run to it...should be better at the longer distances.
Speightscity........another nice one...has already won over a mile.
Alpha..............should relish more ground
Union Rags....off to a great start with 2 for 2
Frizette at BEL;
Spare Change
Stopshoppingmaria
My Miss Aurelia
Holiday Soiree
Dixiana Breeders Fut. at KEE;
As far as pedigrees, this is a much deeper race than the Champagne at BEL. There are an awful lot of really good pedigrees and it will take awhile for these to sort themselves out during the coming months. Right now I'll just list the ones that appeal to me. The future of a lot of these will probably be on the grass and since this is on the Poly we don't know which race they will go for in the BC.
Motor City
Shared Property
Dullahan
Our Entourage
Space Race
There are about 4 others that could be just as good...very good field
My aim is to try to pick the pedigrees that will be able to handle the classic distances of the Triple Crown races. Since these early races are just over a mile it doesn't take classic breeding to win these races but the better bred horses usually win more than their fair share of the early ones.
I don't know if this is an exceptional year for well bred horses or last year was a bad crop but already, and I've just begun, I have found an abundance of nicely bred colts and fillies. Last year in the BC there were only a few that were really nice. Also, it seems like every year there are some classical bred horses from overseas but they don't have much luck here on the dirt. I attribute it to the different training methods over there. They run on the grass and are trained to go slow early and finish fast and that doesn't work in our dirt races where the pace is usually much faster. I don't hesitate to bet foreign horses on the grass but am very leery on dirt.
Now, on to the races and I'll start with the Champagn at BEL:
There are 4 in here that I really like their pedigrees but this is not to say the others are not nicely bred. I have to draw the line somewhere so, even though none can be eliminated completely according to breeding, I have come down to 4 in this race. Keep in mind that most are stretching out to a mile for the first time and a few of the early stakes were run on sloppy tracks. Slop usually favors speed and some horses really hate slop so there could be some surprises.
These are my top 4 in no particular order and I will try for an upset and will probably make some exotic boxes.
Power World.......really like this pedigree...hope he can run to it...should be better at the longer distances.
Speightscity........another nice one...has already won over a mile.
Alpha..............should relish more ground
Union Rags....off to a great start with 2 for 2
Frizette at BEL;
Spare Change
Stopshoppingmaria
My Miss Aurelia
Holiday Soiree
Dixiana Breeders Fut. at KEE;
As far as pedigrees, this is a much deeper race than the Champagne at BEL. There are an awful lot of really good pedigrees and it will take awhile for these to sort themselves out during the coming months. Right now I'll just list the ones that appeal to me. The future of a lot of these will probably be on the grass and since this is on the Poly we don't know which race they will go for in the BC.
Motor City
Shared Property
Dullahan
Our Entourage
Space Race
There are about 4 others that could be just as good...very good field
Friday, October 7, 2011
The Germans Are Coming
Back on May 11 I posted a blog titled "Out Of The Box Breeding" in which I discussed the pedigree of Animal Kingdom. I especially wanted to point out something that I rarely hear about in horse breeding and that is Hy-bred Vigor. Hy-bred Vigor is something that is obtained by the introduction of new blood into an inbred family.
All I read about is the merits of this or that sire and it seems that every year or so a new sire is in fashion. I am always reminding people that most of the time the sire doesn't carry much weight in a pedigree but his family lines do. If one looks at the pedigrees of the 2 yr olds of each season it will be found that a huge percentage of these horses are all closely related. Virtually all of the really good horses of the last 30 yrs or so are of the Northern Dancer and Raise A Native bloodlines. But what do we really have here?
Native Dancer is the sire of Raise A Native who is the sire of Mr Prospector. Native Dancer is the son of Phalaris who is also the g. sire of Nearco who is the g sire of Northern Dancer. So you see, they are all related and most of our top horses today are really inbred to Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector.
Any species, in order to develop the most desired traits, ends up being inbred because of selective breeding programs. This process eventually results in a deterioration of the breed, which in this case, means a weakening of the stamina and bone structure resulting in more break downs and diminishing stamina. This is about where we stand now.
In order to reverse this trend there must be new blood introduced into the inbred family. I have seen some of this happening in the case of Animal Kingdom and now with Danedream. By the crossing of the Northern Dancer line with the German horses a much stronger horse is being produced. About 15-16 winners in a row of the Arc can be traced back to Nearco and now a filly wins the Arc in record time as a result of the introduction of the German line into the Phalaris family.
I really believe that our next Triple Crown winner will be the result of an out cross with a horse such as Big Brown who I think is the best I've seen since Secretariat. BB is inbred to Nearco and is a horse that had high speed and could sustain it over any distance. In my opinion, an out cross with him may produce a durable horse with plenty of stamina and a high cruising speed. In fact, I predicted 2 yrs ago that Big Brown would sire the next TC winner and I stand by that.
Backstretch
PS- My next blog will be about this weeks 2 yr old preps for the Breeders Cup.
All I read about is the merits of this or that sire and it seems that every year or so a new sire is in fashion. I am always reminding people that most of the time the sire doesn't carry much weight in a pedigree but his family lines do. If one looks at the pedigrees of the 2 yr olds of each season it will be found that a huge percentage of these horses are all closely related. Virtually all of the really good horses of the last 30 yrs or so are of the Northern Dancer and Raise A Native bloodlines. But what do we really have here?
Native Dancer is the sire of Raise A Native who is the sire of Mr Prospector. Native Dancer is the son of Phalaris who is also the g. sire of Nearco who is the g sire of Northern Dancer. So you see, they are all related and most of our top horses today are really inbred to Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector.
Any species, in order to develop the most desired traits, ends up being inbred because of selective breeding programs. This process eventually results in a deterioration of the breed, which in this case, means a weakening of the stamina and bone structure resulting in more break downs and diminishing stamina. This is about where we stand now.
In order to reverse this trend there must be new blood introduced into the inbred family. I have seen some of this happening in the case of Animal Kingdom and now with Danedream. By the crossing of the Northern Dancer line with the German horses a much stronger horse is being produced. About 15-16 winners in a row of the Arc can be traced back to Nearco and now a filly wins the Arc in record time as a result of the introduction of the German line into the Phalaris family.
I really believe that our next Triple Crown winner will be the result of an out cross with a horse such as Big Brown who I think is the best I've seen since Secretariat. BB is inbred to Nearco and is a horse that had high speed and could sustain it over any distance. In my opinion, an out cross with him may produce a durable horse with plenty of stamina and a high cruising speed. In fact, I predicted 2 yrs ago that Big Brown would sire the next TC winner and I stand by that.
Backstretch
PS- My next blog will be about this weeks 2 yr old preps for the Breeders Cup.
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